Weekend - 08/05-08/07 | Actuals: Bullet Train 30, Super Pets 11, Nope 8.5, Thor 7.7, Minions 7.1 | TGM sinks Titanic! 7th-biggest film DOM | Bodies Bodies Bodies earns 37.8K PTA

[Shawn Robbins]

18 minutes ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

18 minutes ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

Obviously I love Shawn's numbers, but these are no different from the usual Deadline midday results. He shared these during Minions 2's weekend and projected a 42M OD, which then resulted in a 48M OD. Same thing with the holdovers apart from Elvis. Don't take these numbers as gospel just yet.

And to that point, BT is an adult-heavy (later shows) movie, so 12pm Pacific estimates should in theory be somewhat conservative depending on their projection models.

[M37]

57 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Early Fri estimates, studio sources:

 

BT 12.3 (w previews)

Pets 3.5

Nope 2.3

Thor 2.0

Minions 2.0

Easter 1.8

To comments on these estimates:

 

In regards to BT, it was very walk-up friendly for the previews last night, so expecting that number to come up, maybe even a fair amount, but a low starting point even it if does 

 

As for holdovers, keep in mind last Friday was unusually strong (relative to Sat/Sun), so Fri week/weeks drops are probably not indicative of where the weekend will likely land

[Shawn Robbins]

Some schools started back this week too (other than colleges), so kiddie/family movies should slowly start seeing better Sat jumps soon.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

BULLET TRAIN?

 

More like SNAKES ON A TRAIN!

[Sandro Mazzola]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Early Fri estimates, studio sources:

 

BT 12.3 (w previews)

Pets 3.5

Nope 2.3

Thor 2.0

Minions 2.0

Easter 1.8

 

Any TG number?

[Dandeak2000]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Early Fri estimates, studio sources:

 

BT 12.3 (w previews)

Pets 3.5

Nope 2.3

Thor 2.0

Minions 2.0

Easter 1.8

Superpets is down 62.5% with previews, -50.9% without previews

Nope -60.6%

Thor 4 -47.8%

Minions 2 -40.8%

 

I guess Nope's drop is because of the loss of IMAX? It also lost like 800 cinemas this week I think.

[Krissykins]

That’s not a good hold for Nope.

 

Still not out here, opens a week today. 

[efialtes76]

29 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Some schools started back this week too (other than colleges), so kiddie/family movies should slowly start seeing better Sat jumps soon.

Last year Jungle Cruise increased 47% on Saturday.

I expect even bigger increases for Pets and Minions.

 

[CJohn]

That is stupidly awful for BT and Nope. Poor theaters.

Edited August 5, 2022 by CJohn

[Dandeak2000]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That’s not a good hold for Nope.

 

Still not out here, opens a week today. 

Yep, I still hold the belief that all films should open day and date everywhere lol but that's only cause we sometimes get shafted on release dates over here.

[Sandro Mazzola]

Assuming 1.2m EA then the Thurs to T.Fri mult is bettet for BT than Nope... with 3pm previews this mult doesn't seem that bad imo.

[Felandria]

I absolutely loved Bullet Train.

[Krissykins]

I thought Bullet Train was very entertaining. Some great gore gags too. 
 

It is a bit too long though and lags in the middle. 

[Dandeak2000]

18 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

Assuming 1.2m EA then the Thurs to T.Fri mult is bettet for BT than Nope... with 3pm previews this mult doesn't seem that bad imo.

I think $1.25M was the estimate, which would me $3.35M Thursday previews and $7.7M pure Friday (based on the guesstimate from earlier)

[CJohn]

12.3 - 8.5 - 5.2 = 25M. The awfulness. Oh God.

[M37]

26 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

Assuming 1.2m EA then the Thurs to T.Fri mult is bettet for BT than Nope... with 3pm previews this mult doesn't seem that bad imo.

On paper sure, but can’t just ignore that the EA shows cannibalized some of what would have been the Thursday audience/gross if they didn’t exist

[Eric Atreides]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

12.3 - 8.5 - 5.2 = 25M. The awfulness. Oh God.

Dude, you know this is the equivalent of Deadline's early Friday #s, right?

[Valonqar]

Don't estimates always go up from the earliest ones? So holds that look awful atm can still recover somewhat. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Valonqar

[Sandro Mazzola]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

12.3 - 8.5 - 5.2 = 25M. The awfulness. Oh God.

 

Imo:
12.3
9.2
7.1
28.7m

Assuming the early reporting is low I think very low 30's is on the cards.

[M37]

This thread every time we get early Friday estimates