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ChipDerby

3000 Years of Derby | Week 35

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1 M37 92.583% 82.139% 95.194% 5.522% 13 10
2 Sandy 90.630% 84.338% 92.203% 3.569% 12 10
3 Goldenhour36 90.377% 76.333% 93.888% 3.316% 11 10
4 TalismanRing 89.777% 75.244% 93.410% 2.716% 10 10
5 In XXR We Trust 89.770% 77.026% 92.957% 2.710% 9 10
6 Legion By Night 89.047% 75.882% 92.339% 1.986% 8 10
7 datpepper 88.203% 72.114% 92.226% 1.142% 7 10
8 Grebacio 87.450% 72.415% 91.209% 0.389% 6 10
9 IdahoJacket 85.356% 57.757% 92.256% -1.705% 5 10
10 Sandro Mazzola 84.156% 78.175% 85.651% -2.905% 4 10
11 katnisscinnaplex 83.044% 73.258% 85.490% -4.017% 3 10
12 glassfairy 80.906% 75.330% 82.299% -6.155% 2 10
13 zubrolet 80.493% 65.313% 84.288% -6.568% 1 10
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On 8/23/2022 at 3:59 PM, Toruk Makto XXR said:

O/U 6 films within $1M of each other? 

Under, but only because I've got two separate clusters of 4 and 5 films respectively that meet the criteria

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Invitation ($10.37) and Super Pets ($3.73) are going to win or lose the week for me - off the charts vs average on both. Betting on the Fri night teens and against the digital release respectively 

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On 8/26/2022 at 9:11 AM, M37 said:

Invitation ($10.37) and Super Pets ($3.73) are going to win or lose the week for me - off the charts vs average on both. Betting on the Fri night teens and against the digital release respectively 

schitts creek comedy GIF by CBC

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23 minutes ago, Stealing Porthos Name XXR said:

Unless there's a shocking change in how the weekend plays out, @Legion By Night should win fairly easily. 

Pessimism FTW 😕

 

Next weekend is going to be a wild one for predictions 

random number dialing GIF by South Park

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Fwiw, I fixed my train number from 5.5 to 5 and my lead fell by a full %.  
 

Then I updated some ests to my personal nums and got the % back.   
 

This would be the first time in forever my wr goes back above 25%, so 🤞

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5 hours ago, Stealing Porthos Name XXR said:

Is TGM going to win next weekend?!

That or even NWH - first to $5M (or maybe $6M, depending on Cinema Day bump) wins 

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58 minutes ago, M37 said:

That or even NWH - first to $5M (or maybe $6M, depending on Cinema Day bump) wins 

 

I'm wondering if Cinema Day is going to help or hurt. Feels like a lot of people will take advantage of $3 tickets.

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24 minutes ago, Stealing Porthos Name XXR said:

 

I'm wondering if Cinema Day is going to help or hurt. Feels like a lot of people will take advantage of $3 tickets.

“A lot” will, but how much does that get made up by volume, similar to Discount Tue vs Mon/Wed, while also likely pulling full admission buyers away from rest of weekend 

 

(Hence the gif I posted above about next weekend’s predictions)

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1 minute ago, M37 said:

“A lot” will, but how much does that get made up by volume, similar to Discount Tue vs Mon/Wed, while also likely pulling full admission buyers away from rest of weekend 

 

(Hence the gif I posted above about next weekend’s predictions)

 

Discount Tuesday has its limits though. They're having $3 IMAX at Lincoln Square in the evening. That's usually a $28 ticket! 

Even 3x the volume is gonna lead to bigger drops in USD than equivalent regular pricing. Also, it's going to pull Friday-Sunday-Monday crowds to Saturday, which will depress those days. 


Yea, it's gonna be interesting lmao

 

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On 8/28/2022 at 3:47 PM, Legion By Night said:

Grebacio went even more pessimistic and probably gonna be rewarded with a close 2nd. They could take it if Sunday actuals are weak.

Well, Sunday actuals were weak.At least it’s another top 2 for the collection.

 

next wknd:

NWH

TGM

Pets

Train

Invitation

Beast

Honk for Jesus

Minions

Thor

Crawdads

 

 

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3 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

Well, Sunday actuals were weak.At least it’s another top 2 for the collection.

 

next wknd:

NWH

TGM

Pets

Train

Invitation

Beast

Honk for Jesus

Minions

Thor

Crawdads

 

 

Crawdads & DBS are gonna be close

 

And since next weekend is going to be a crapshoot anyway, maybe throw in Jaws as the last spot instead?

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