ChipDerby Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 FROM THE MAD GENIUS OF GEORGE MILLER https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Quote
ChipDerby Posted August 23, 2022 Author Posted August 23, 2022 1 M37 92.583% 82.139% 95.194% 5.522% 13 10 2 Sandy 90.630% 84.338% 92.203% 3.569% 12 10 3 Goldenhour36 90.377% 76.333% 93.888% 3.316% 11 10 4 TalismanRing 89.777% 75.244% 93.410% 2.716% 10 10 5 In XXR We Trust 89.770% 77.026% 92.957% 2.710% 9 10 6 Legion By Night 89.047% 75.882% 92.339% 1.986% 8 10 7 datpepper 88.203% 72.114% 92.226% 1.142% 7 10 8 Grebacio 87.450% 72.415% 91.209% 0.389% 6 10 9 IdahoJacket 85.356% 57.757% 92.256% -1.705% 5 10 10 Sandro Mazzola 84.156% 78.175% 85.651% -2.905% 4 10 11 katnisscinnaplex 83.044% 73.258% 85.490% -4.017% 3 10 12 glassfairy 80.906% 75.330% 82.299% -6.155% 2 10 13 zubrolet 80.493% 65.313% 84.288% -6.568% 1 10 1 Quote
M37 Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 On 8/23/2022 at 3:59 PM, Toruk Makto XXR said: O/U 6 films within $1M of each other? Under, but only because I've got two separate clusters of 4 and 5 films respectively that meet the criteria Quote
Comeback Legion Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 Yeah I have 5 4.4-5.4 and 4 2.4-3.4 Another pessimistic weekend for me, confident in dbs but not as much on train. Quote
M37 Posted August 26, 2022 Posted August 26, 2022 Invitation ($10.37) and Super Pets ($3.73) are going to win or lose the week for me - off the charts vs average on both. Betting on the Fri night teens and against the digital release respectively Quote
M37 Posted August 27, 2022 Posted August 27, 2022 On 8/26/2022 at 9:11 AM, M37 said: Invitation ($10.37) and Super Pets ($3.73) are going to win or lose the week for me - off the charts vs average on both. Betting on the Fri night teens and against the digital release respectively Quote
XXR!™ Posted August 27, 2022 Posted August 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, M37 said: It happens. I should have brought 3T down by at least $500K but I mathed up when calculating. Oh well. Quote
XXR!™ Posted August 27, 2022 Posted August 27, 2022 Unless there's a shocking change in how the weekend plays out, @Legion By Night should win fairly easily. 2 Quote
M37 Posted August 27, 2022 Posted August 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, Stealing Porthos Name XXR said: Unless there's a shocking change in how the weekend plays out, @Legion By Night should win fairly easily. Pessimism FTW 😕 Next weekend is going to be a wild one for predictions Quote
Comeback Legion Posted August 27, 2022 Posted August 27, 2022 Fwiw, I fixed my train number from 5.5 to 5 and my lead fell by a full %. Then I updated some ests to my personal nums and got the % back. This would be the first time in forever my wr goes back above 25%, so 🤞 Quote
M37 Posted August 28, 2022 Posted August 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Stealing Porthos Name XXR said: Is TGM going to win next weekend?! That or even NWH - first to $5M (or maybe $6M, depending on Cinema Day bump) wins Quote
XXR!™ Posted August 28, 2022 Posted August 28, 2022 58 minutes ago, M37 said: That or even NWH - first to $5M (or maybe $6M, depending on Cinema Day bump) wins I'm wondering if Cinema Day is going to help or hurt. Feels like a lot of people will take advantage of $3 tickets. Quote
M37 Posted August 28, 2022 Posted August 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, Stealing Porthos Name XXR said: I'm wondering if Cinema Day is going to help or hurt. Feels like a lot of people will take advantage of $3 tickets. “A lot” will, but how much does that get made up by volume, similar to Discount Tue vs Mon/Wed, while also likely pulling full admission buyers away from rest of weekend (Hence the gif I posted above about next weekend’s predictions) Quote
XXR!™ Posted August 28, 2022 Posted August 28, 2022 1 minute ago, M37 said: “A lot” will, but how much does that get made up by volume, similar to Discount Tue vs Mon/Wed, while also likely pulling full admission buyers away from rest of weekend (Hence the gif I posted above about next weekend’s predictions) Discount Tuesday has its limits though. They're having $3 IMAX at Lincoln Square in the evening. That's usually a $28 ticket! Even 3x the volume is gonna lead to bigger drops in USD than equivalent regular pricing. Also, it's going to pull Friday-Sunday-Monday crowds to Saturday, which will depress those days. Yea, it's gonna be interesting lmao 2 Quote
Comeback Legion Posted August 28, 2022 Posted August 28, 2022 Grebacio went even more pessimistic and probably gonna be rewarded with a close 2nd. They could take it if Sunday actuals are weak. Quote
Comeback Legion Posted August 29, 2022 Posted August 29, 2022 On 8/28/2022 at 3:47 PM, Legion By Night said: Grebacio went even more pessimistic and probably gonna be rewarded with a close 2nd. They could take it if Sunday actuals are weak. Well, Sunday actuals were weak.At least it’s another top 2 for the collection. next wknd: NWH TGM Pets Train Invitation Beast Honk for Jesus Minions Thor Crawdads Quote
M37 Posted August 30, 2022 Posted August 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Legion By Night said: Well, Sunday actuals were weak.At least it’s another top 2 for the collection. next wknd: NWH TGM Pets Train Invitation Beast Honk for Jesus Minions Thor Crawdads Crawdads & DBS are gonna be close And since next weekend is going to be a crapshoot anyway, maybe throw in Jaws as the last spot instead? Quote
