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ChipDerby

National Cinema Derby | Week 36

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19 hours ago, M37 said:

Obviously not expecting replies until after lock, but I'm honestly curious how y'all approached this week, because honestly at this point ...

I Have No Idea Shrug GIF

 

 

I’m frankly more interested in method than results for this week. Here’s how I finally approached it: 

 

On a normal LD weekend, would expect BO to make roughly $1X Fri, and then $1.5x for Sa/Su. Guesstimated that CD would pull ~30% from Fri ($0.7x) and ~20% from Sun ($1.2x), and CD itself would be 3-3.5x higher in admits at $3, so basically a wash to $1.5x. Overall thats $3.4x vs $4x baseline 

 

Then made one giant (and probably wrong) assumption: the CD deflation effect would be equivalent to $75M in Shang-Chi last year, and so used those Wed to Weekend ratios to estimate this year (adjusting for TC loss/PTA). That at least gave some semblance of a baseline, and then wiggled numbers from there for final projections 

 

I’ll be totally happy with 85% on holdovers 

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Sat admits at 3.25x is Sat gross of ~89% (using 3 and 11 ATPs). So ~.7+1.33+1.2=3.23/4.     
 

I also had sat at 3/8 and Fri Sun at 5/8 (pre-adjustment). I used a 20% 3Day penalty for cinema day as a result of quite similar assumptions about sat admits and fri/sun lost business.    
 

Didn’t even look at 2021 labor given the massive opener, pulled wknd vertical hold/wed vertical hold from 2018 and 2019. Ranged mostly from 120-150%, so used a fairly lazy 135%. So overall went with holds of wed*1.35*.8=wed *1.08. Minor modifications for genre, 3rd wknd rebound, pro forecasts, TCs.   
 

And since Invitation doesn’t have a wed vertical, grabbed horizontals from Ready or Not (labor 2nd wknd horror) and gave it a mild boost for R vs PG13.

Edited by Legion By Night
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