Best Original/Adapted Screenplay Predictions: 2022

[filmlover]

Just realized this is one of the last few major categories we have yet to have threads for. Predict the two screenplay categories here.

[SLAM!]

Watch out for The Eight Mountains in Adapted if Italy selects it for International Feature. Janus Films, the distributor of Drive My Car, is distributing it. The Eight Mountains won a jury prize at Cannes last May (I think the one that’s basically third place for the Palme d’Or). Adapted is very weak this year so if Janus Films can do similar campaigning with what they did for Drive My Car, that could make The Eight Mountains at least a top ten contender depending on how critics circle awards shake out.

Edited September 24, 2022 by SLAM!

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

ORIGINAL:

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere

The Fabelmans

Triangle of Sadness

 

ALT:

Bros- needs to make money. Still probably makes WGA

TAR- will be in heavy contention but could be seen as more a directing achievement

 

I don't really think Armageddon Time has much shot. Triangle is the weakest of these 5. Neon needs to mount a stronger campaign. But it is an audience fave more than critic with witty satirical humor and creative narrative structure.

 

ADAPTED:

Glass Onion

She Said

The Whale

White Noise

Women Talking

 

ALT:

Bones and All- maybe?

Living- I don't believe it but maybe if Nighy is very strong it maintains support

Till- another unlikely contender but maybe it's a stealth and sleeper hit

Top Gun- probably makes WGA but will the writing branch truly vote for this?

 

The Son bombed at Venice. White Noise is also polarizing, but could get in ala Inherent Vice for being an admirable attempt at adapting an ambitious classic novel. She Said I doubt is a BP nominee so a lone writing nom feels weird but if reviews are good, the journalistic element can appeal to voters. Whale is borderline but can be carried by Fraser's buzz and a stage adaptation can appeal to the branch. Women Talking and Glass Onion are probably in.

[filmlover]

^ pretty much where I am on Original Screenplay though I think TAR gets in based on the movie looking to be a Best Picture contender over Triangle (which has reviews that aren't overwhelmingly enthusiastic and might not make any money - even specialty audiences have become fickle about what they pay to see so it could easily wither in limited release).

 

Adapted is a complete dead zone beyond Glass Onion/She Said/Women Talking. Will the Academy go for something as gory as Bones & All sounds? Spoiler Alert repeating The Big Sick's nomination total with a lone Screenplay nom? Top Gun if the category ends up that dead (partially why Logan made it five years back)? I dunno.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I think White Noise should get in. Netflix still campaigns it. It's an admirable adaptation of a classic book with verbose dialogue and shifty structure. Even those mixed on the movie have to appreciate it as a nice try. In a category this dire, I think the writers will find much appeal.

[cannastop]

I noticed on Gold Derby that Turning Red is a movie you can predict for Original Screenplay, with 100/1 odds.

And Del Toro's Pinocchio is an option for Adapted Screenplay with 72/1 odds.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'm at

 

Babylon

Banshees

Everything everywhere

Fabelmans

TAR

ALT: Triangle of Sadness

 

Glass Onion

Pinocchio

The Whale

White Noise

Women Talking

ALT: She Said