There's No One On This Planet That Can Derby | Week 43

[ChipDerby]

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

[ChipDerby]

1	M37	82.791%	89.213%	82.077%	4.132%	12	10
	2	zubrolet	82.126%	96.380%	80.542%	3.467%	11	10
	3	Imperius ReXXR	81.743%	87.640%	81.087%	3.084%	10	10
	4	Goldenhour36	80.412%	81.248%	80.319%	1.753%	9	10
	5	Grebacio	79.817%	75.306%	80.318%	1.158%	8	10
	6	TalismanRing	78.747%	85.144%	78.036%	0.088%	7	10
	7	glassfairy	78.289%	76.654%	78.471%	-0.369%	6	10
	8	datpepper	78.057%	87.640%	76.992%	-0.602%	5	10
	9	IdahoJacket	77.247%	95.131%	75.260%	-1.411%	4	10
	10	CaptNathanBrittles	77.225%	87.391%	76.095%	-1.434%	3	10
	11	FilmCavalcade	77.020%	82.647%	76.395%	-1.639%	2	10
	12	Sandro Mazzola	70.429%	81.873%	69.157%	-8.229%	1	10

[ChipDerby]

Had to go the 0% route for Avatar. Dumb Avatar. Hope Avatar 2 makes under $2 billion now 🤬

[Legion Again]

Uhh… what happened to my submission for wk 42? It was showing earlier

[Legion Again]

I guess being excluded from that week is good for my averages but feels kind of cheap 😂

[zubrolet]

Strange, I don't see theaters count of Terrifier 2 on the-numbers website.  

[Legion Again]

This is probably the biggest swing I’ve ever taken (measured in, say, avg absolute z score). 2nd biggest was probably national cinema wknd, when I got absolutely wrecked with like -10% vs avg, so… Terrifying sounds about right.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

This is probably the biggest swing I’ve ever taken (measured in, say, avg absolute z score). 2nd biggest was probably national cinema wknd, when I got absolutely wrecked with like -10% vs avg, so… Terrifying sounds about right.

Barbarian is going to crush a lot of people. Over 72% drop in showings this weekend. I’d be surprised if it even hit $550K.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

Barbarian is going to crush a lot of people. Over 72% drop in showings this weekend. I’d be surprised if it even hit $550K.

Well I have it .75 despite the massive hit, I think PSA can have a solid increase.  
 

Peep my terrifier and TTP nums compared to the avg though 👀  

[M37]

1 hour ago, zubrolet said:

Strange, I don't see theaters count of Terrifier 2 on the-numbers website.  

Numbers only lists what studios report to them, which is sometimes nothing. I assumed, based on increase last week, it would hold at 700 if not add a few more. But that's a wild card.

 

This whole week feels a lot more high variance than usual tbh

Edited October 21, 2022 by M37

[Grebacio]

Uhhh, when I first check averages, derby was showing me my actual predictions but then i refreshed and it’s showing me random predictions

@ChipDerby

Edited October 21, 2022 by Grebacio

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Well I have it .75 despite the massive hit, I think PSA can have a solid increase.  
 

Peep my terrifier and TTP nums compared to the avg though 👀  

Yeeaaaaa I saw lol. I can’t see Terrifier doing more than $1.1M (10% increase in showings) given no expansion.

 

TTP at 18x previews seems like a lot but comps aren’t great for it so maybe you’ll nail that one.

[Grebacio]

10 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Uhhh, when I first check averages, derby was showing me my actual predictions but then i refreshed and it’s showing me random predictions

@ChipDerby

Now is showing my actual predictions again, BUT in the chart my prediction for Ticket to Paradise is outside the prediction range, so I dont know what's happening
I've taken screenshots just in case

Edited October 21, 2022 by Grebacio

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Uhhh, when I first check averages, derby was showing me my actual predictions but then i refreshed and it’s showing me random predictions

@ChipDerby

One of my nums (TWK) is not showing as what I submitted (shows 2.85, was pretty sure I had 2.5). I thought it was just a fat finger and immediately messaged Andy to see if it could be fixed, but if you’re seeing weird stuff maybe it’s a wacky bug

 

Terrifier 2 is expanding ~7% in kantmiss sample locations, but ~21% in BOP’s wknd forecast approximated count. I did peg it for another PTA increase though, lol.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Legion By Night

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

Barbarian is going to crush a lot of people. Over 72% drop in showings this weekend. I’d be surprised if it even hit $550K.

Horror movies in particular are more top heavy grossing for both locations and shows, and can absorb such a hit with less impact to total. On 10/7 weekend Pearl went from 1638 --> 588 locations, likely a similar show volume loss, and only dropped 59%, despite a higher base rate of decline (-45% vs -28% approx). Probably drops >50%, but don't think it crashes to -60% range given WOM and some potential rebound effect from Halloween.

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Horror movies in particular are more top heavy grossing for both locations and shows, and can absorb such a hit with less impact to total. On 10/7 weekend Pearl went from 1638 --> 588 locations, likely a similar show volume loss, and only dropped 59%, despite a higher base rate of decline (-45% vs -28% approx). Probably drops >50%, but don't think it crashes to -60% range given WOM and some potential rebound effect from Halloween.

 

 

Pearl didn’t have 2 other, much bigger horror films competing with it though. Still, even on your numbers it would be at $560K.

[Legion Again]

Lol I don’t even have the terrifier max — @krla in with the 2.0  

 

Would not be surprised if they score higher than me tbh, I just didn’t have the guts

[M37]

27 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

Pearl didn’t have 2 other, much bigger horror films competing with it though. Still, even on your numbers it would be at $560K.

My point was that Pearl’s show volume loss knocked only ~15% off expected decline (-45 to -60), and had both Smile and Barbarian in the market grossing ahead of it. For Barbarian that would be -43% (28 + 15), though wont be surprised if it winds up around -50%, mid to high $600s, just not low $600s or below 

 

EDIT - I even looked a wrong week, Pearl was already in decline of >50% that preceding week, not 45%, thanks to Smile, before the massive TC/show loss

Edited October 21, 2022 by M37

[krla]

35 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Lol I don’t even have the terrifier max — @krla in with the 2.0  

 

Would not be surprised if they score higher than me tbh, I just didn’t have the guts

I think this is my first derby. Every time I plan on entering, I figure I'll enter at the last minute, but then I forget. So I finally put in some predictions a day or so ago, and planned to tweak them, but never did, lol. The 2.0 was just a placeholder for "over 1.0", since I figured Terrifier 2 will do better than last week, but couldn't find theater counts or any grosses for this week.

 

Don't know what tea leaves I found my Halloween Ends prediction in (14m), but they might not be meant for drinking, lol.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

My point was that Pearl’s show volume loss knocked only ~15% off expected decline (-45 to -60), and had both Smile and Barbarian in the market grossing ahead of it. For Barbarian that would be -43% (28 + 15), though wont be surprised if it winds up around -50%, mid to high $600s, just not low $600s or below 

 

EDIT - I even looked a wrong week, Pearl was already in decline of >50% that preceding week, not 45%, thanks to Smile, before the massive TC/show loss

For the 9/23 weekend, Pearl dropped 39%. It lost 68.9% of its shows (via Katniss numbers) for the 9/30 weekend and dropped 63%.

 

Barbarian dropped 37% last weekend and is losing 72.3% of its shows this weekend. I’d be willing to bet pretty much anything that the drop is > 60% this weekend and likely in the 63-66% range.