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ChipDerby

There's No One On This Planet That Can Derby | Week 43

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1 M37 82.791% 89.213% 82.077% 4.132% 12 10
2 zubrolet 82.126% 96.380% 80.542% 3.467% 11 10
3 Imperius ReXXR 81.743% 87.640% 81.087% 3.084% 10 10
4 Goldenhour36 80.412% 81.248% 80.319% 1.753% 9 10
5 Grebacio 79.817% 75.306% 80.318% 1.158% 8 10
6 TalismanRing 78.747% 85.144% 78.036% 0.088% 7 10
7 glassfairy 78.289% 76.654% 78.471% -0.369% 6 10
8 datpepper 78.057% 87.640% 76.992% -0.602% 5 10
9 IdahoJacket 77.247% 95.131% 75.260% -1.411% 4 10
10 CaptNathanBrittles 77.225% 87.391% 76.095% -1.434% 3 10
11 FilmCavalcade 77.020% 82.647% 76.395% -1.639% 2 10
12 Sandro Mazzola 70.429% 81.873% 69.157% -8.229% 1 10
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This is probably the biggest swing I’ve ever taken (measured in, say, avg absolute z score). 2nd biggest was probably national cinema wknd, when I got absolutely wrecked with like -10% vs avg, so… Terrifying sounds about right.

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1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

This is probably the biggest swing I’ve ever taken (measured in, say, avg absolute z score). 2nd biggest was probably national cinema wknd, when I got absolutely wrecked with like -10% vs avg, so… Terrifying sounds about right.


Barbarian is going to crush a lot of people. Over 72% drop in showings this weekend. I’d be surprised if it even hit $550K.

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2 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:


Barbarian is going to crush a lot of people. Over 72% drop in showings this weekend. I’d be surprised if it even hit $550K.

Well I have it .75 despite the massive hit, I think PSA can have a solid increase.  
 

Peep my terrifier and TTP nums compared to the avg though 👀  

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1 hour ago, zubrolet said:

Strange, I don't see theaters count of Terrifier 2 on the-numbers website.  

Numbers only lists what studios report to them, which is sometimes nothing. I assumed, based on increase last week, it would hold at 700 if not add a few more. But that's a wild card.

 

This whole week feels a lot more high variance than usual tbh

Confused Always Sunny GIF by It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Edited by M37
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2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Well I have it .75 despite the massive hit, I think PSA can have a solid increase.  
 

Peep my terrifier and TTP nums compared to the avg though 👀  


Yeeaaaaa I saw lol. I can’t see Terrifier doing more than $1.1M (10% increase in showings) given no expansion.

 

TTP at 18x previews seems like a lot but comps aren’t great for it so maybe you’ll nail that one.

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10 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Uhhh, when I first check averages, derby was showing me my actual predictions but then i refreshed and it’s showing me random predictions

@ChipDerby

Now is showing my actual predictions again, BUT in the chart my prediction for Ticket to Paradise is outside the prediction range, so I dont know what's happening
I've taken screenshots just in case
j4HigQ8.jpg
iSPyxcU.jpg

Edited by Grebacio
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13 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Uhhh, when I first check averages, derby was showing me my actual predictions but then i refreshed and it’s showing me random predictions

@ChipDerby

One of my nums (TWK) is not showing as what I submitted (shows 2.85, was pretty sure I had 2.5). I thought it was just a fat finger and immediately messaged Andy to see if it could be fixed, but if you’re seeing weird stuff maybe it’s a wacky bug

 

Terrifier 2 is expanding ~7% in kantmiss sample locations, but ~21% in BOP’s wknd forecast approximated count. I did peg it for another PTA increase though, lol.

Edited by Legion By Night
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11 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:


Barbarian is going to crush a lot of people. Over 72% drop in showings this weekend. I’d be surprised if it even hit $550K.

Horror movies in particular are more top heavy grossing for both locations and shows, and can absorb such a hit with less impact to total. On 10/7 weekend Pearl went from 1638 --> 588 locations, likely a similar show volume loss, and only dropped 59%, despite a higher base rate of decline (-45% vs -28% approx). Probably drops >50%, but don't think it crashes to -60% range given WOM and some potential rebound effect from Halloween.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Horror movies in particular are more top heavy grossing for both locations and shows, and can absorb such a hit with less impact to total. On 10/7 weekend Pearl went from 1638 --> 588 locations, likely a similar show volume loss, and only dropped 59%, despite a higher base rate of decline (-45% vs -28% approx). Probably drops >50%, but don't think it crashes to -60% range given WOM and some potential rebound effect from Halloween.

 

 


Pearl didn’t have 2 other, much bigger horror films competing with it though. Still, even on your numbers it would be at $560K.

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27 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:


Pearl didn’t have 2 other, much bigger horror films competing with it though. Still, even on your numbers it would be at $560K.

My point was that Pearl’s show volume loss knocked only ~15% off expected decline (-45 to -60), and had both Smile and Barbarian in the market grossing ahead of it. For Barbarian that would be -43% (28 + 15), though wont be surprised if it winds up around -50%, mid to high $600s, just not low $600s or below 

 

EDIT - I even looked a wrong week, Pearl was already in decline of >50% that preceding week, not 45%, thanks to Smile, before the massive TC/show loss

Edited by M37
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35 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Lol I don’t even have the terrifier max — @krla in with the 2.0  

 

Would not be surprised if they score higher than me tbh, I just didn’t have the guts

I think this is my first derby. Every time I plan on entering, I figure I'll enter at the last minute, but then I forget. So I finally put in some predictions a day or so ago, and planned to tweak them, but never did, lol. The 2.0 was just a placeholder for "over 1.0", since I figured Terrifier 2 will do better than last week, but couldn't find theater counts or any grosses for this week.

 

Don't know what tea leaves I found my Halloween Ends prediction in (14m), but they might not be meant for drinking, lol.

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1 hour ago, M37 said:

My point was that Pearl’s show volume loss knocked only ~15% off expected decline (-45 to -60), and had both Smile and Barbarian in the market grossing ahead of it. For Barbarian that would be -43% (28 + 15), though wont be surprised if it winds up around -50%, mid to high $600s, just not low $600s or below 

 

EDIT - I even looked a wrong week, Pearl was already in decline of >50% that preceding week, not 45%, thanks to Smile, before the massive TC/show loss


For the 9/23 weekend, Pearl dropped 39%. It lost 68.9% of its shows (via Katniss numbers) for the 9/30 weekend and dropped 63%.

 

Barbarian dropped 37% last weekend and is losing 72.3% of its shows this weekend. I’d be willing to bet pretty much anything that the drop is > 60% this weekend and likely in the 63-66% range.

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