There's No One On This Planet That Can Derby | Week 43

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

For the 9/23 weekend, Pearl dropped 39%. It lost 68.9% of its shows (via Katniss numbers) for the 9/30 weekend and dropped 63%.

 

Barbarian dropped 37% last weekend and is losing 72.3% of its shows this weekend. I’d be willing to bet pretty much anything that the drop is > 60% this weekend and likely in the 63-66% range.

It’s the 9/30 to 10/7 weekend for Pearl which is the comparison I was making, when it pulled like 2/3 of its theatres. Or even Scream on the 3/4 weekend (vs Batman). Like their antagonists, it’s just really difficult to kill a good WOM horror flick 

 

It was not my intent to make this a thing, but if you want to put some stakes on it, I’m listening …

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s the 9/30 to 10/7 weekend for Pearl which is the comparison I was making, when it pulled like 2/3 of its theatres. Or even Scream on the 3/4 weekend (vs Batman). Like their antagonists, it’s just really difficult to kill a good WOM horror flick 

 

It was not my intent to make this a thing, but if you want to put some stakes on it, I’m listening …

 

 

Yea I felt the 9/23 to 9/30 weekend drops were more apt given the previous weekend hold was comparable to Barbarian last weekend. As for Scream 3/4, it had a higher BO % drop than it did theater % drop (57 vs 45.5%). A similar drop for Barbarian would be a nearly 70% BO drop.

 

Over 60% drop for Barbarian this weekend, you change your name to something of my choosing and if it’s under 60% I’ll change it to something of yours? This would be for 1 week.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Imperius ReXXR

[ChipDerby]

3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

Now is showing my actual predictions again, BUT in the chart my prediction for Ticket to Paradise is outside the prediction range, so I dont know what's happening
I've taken screenshots just in case

 

Very strange! Either @AndyLL fixed it, or it was a brief glitch. From everything on my end, it looks fine and back to normal.

 

But yeah unfortunately I don't have access to adjusting anyones predictions, etc. I am literally just in charge of deciding which movies to predict each week, and updating the scores for the week!

[M37]

1 hour ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

Over 60% drop for Barbarian this weekend, you change your name to something of my choosing and if it’s under 60% I’ll change it to something of yours? This would be for 1 week.

Edited 54 minutes ago by Imperius ReXXR

Yeah, I’m down, thought I’m not sure lowly free accounts can actually change their name? If not, I can sign every post for that week with something of your choosing 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, I’m down, thought I’m not sure lowly free accounts can actually change their name? If not, I can sign every post for that week with something of your choosing 

That works, but I need it you to do a minimum of like 15 l posts at least 🤣

[M37]

26 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

That works, but I need it you to do a minimum of like 15 l posts at least 🤣

::checks profile::

 

I don’t think that will be an issue 

[M37]

Barbarian with a $176K (-56%) Friday 🙃

 

With such limited showtimes, the week/week changes are more likely vary by day, so still in the grey zone here. (for reference, Pearl was -58/62/54 on 10/7 weekend)

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Barbarian with a $176K (-56%) Friday 🙃

 

With such limited showtimes, the week/week changes are more likely vary by day, so still in the grey zone here. (for reference, Pearl was -58/62/54 on 10/7 weekend)

 

Horror movies gonna fuck up my Derby.

 

Spoiler

Relatively, at least. Should still be a podium finish unless something weird happens. 

 

[M37]

37 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

 

Horror movies gonna fuck up my Derby.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Relatively, at least. Should still be a podium finish unless something weird happens. 

 

This bet may be the only think I get right* this weekend ...

Derby score in gif form

 

And by "right", I mean barely squeaking under the target at like $600K/-57%

 

[Legion Again]

The avg score is gonna be preeeeeeeeety rough this wk 

[TalismanRing]

Terrifier 2

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

Do you know how to contact @AndyLL, @ChipDerby? I’m hoping they see my message before mid-mon or so but seems like they only check the forum infrequently 😅

[misterpepp]

14 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

The avg score is gonna be preeeeeeeeety rough this wk 

 

Prophetic thread title?

[M37]

Not gonna lie, Barbarian at $589K doesn’t feel like much of a victory …

But a bet is a bet, and I am now soliciting suggestions for @Imperius ReXXR’s name for next week (until actuals tomorrow)

[Legion Again]

590 is enough for you vs xxr, but not enough for me vs wombi…

 

fingers crossed for good sun for it, DWD, and ticket

Edited October 23, 2022 by Legion By Night

[XXR vs XXR]

38 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not gonna lie, Barbarian at $589K doesn’t feel like much of a victory …

But a bet is a bet, and I am now soliciting suggestions for @Imperius ReXXR’s name for next week (until actuals tomorrow)

 

I'm gonna lose the bet but still be closer to the actuals 

[ChipDerby]

On 10/22/2022 at 6:58 PM, Legion By Night said:

Do you know how to contact @AndyLL, @ChipDerby? I’m hoping they see my message before mid-mon or so but seems like they only check the forum infrequently 😅

 

I believe @AndyLL checks their DMs pretty regularly. I personally contact them via pigeon.

[XXR vs XXR]

On 10/23/2022 at 10:12 AM, M37 said:

Not gonna lie, Barbarian at $589K doesn’t feel like much of a victory …

But a bet is a bet, and I am now soliciting suggestions for @Imperius ReXXR’s name for next week (until actuals tomorrow)

 

On 10/23/2022 at 10:16 AM, Legion By Night said:

590 is enough for you vs xxr, but not enough for me vs wombi…

 

fingers crossed for good sun for it, DWD, and ticket

70 basis points away from -60%….

[M37]

39 minutes ago, Imperius ReXXR said:

 

70 basis points away from -60%….

 

And the record, despite how this turned out, I still stand by the general argument about horror being able to hold OK in the face of larger volume cuts ... but for this week overall I underestimated just how much the 1-2 punch of Black Adam and TTP was going to smack down everything else in the market (except Smile)

Here's the change in Per Show Average (using Katniss's numbers on Friday), with other titles that lost >60% of shows highlighted, and only Minions (family being the other genre that can withstand large cuts) in the same ballpark

 

Movie	PSA Chng
Terrifier 2	54.60%
Minions 2	52.00%
Barbarian	47.00%
Don't Worry Darling	20.50%
Bros	13.40%
Super-Pets	-11.30%
Smile	-17.50%
Amsterdam	-20.70%
The Woman King	-24.70%
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	-25.80%
Top Gun: Maverick	-41.80%
Halloween Ends	-53.10%

 

I'm still mulling over some name ideas, but I'll PM you tonight

 

[Legion Again]

Yeah everything got really smashed here. Correcting my TWK num no longer matters for 1st (though I still hope it’s possible for OCD reasons)