THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[OncomingStorm93]

56 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

PSA on Strange World - no presales, yet, but my 1st Cinemark at least has assigned a showing set and it's getting SINGLE screened for presales.

 

I can't remember the last time a Disney Thanksgiving animated got that single screen set - it's pretty much being set up as a throwaway movie for the holiday.

 

This theater has set 75% of its screens now for that week, and holdovers not named Black Panther still have to get a few, so there's not gonna be a lot of room if this somehow goes nuts when sales start...

 

I'm not saying it's gonna open Lyle, Lyle or Super Pets level, but I'm not saying it's not, either...

I’ve only ever felt like this is a Mars Needs Moms redux.

[Dominic Draper]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yeah it's even better.

Infinity war felt like a movie.

 

Endgame was a 3 hour clip show and fan service.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

Wakanda Forever - $180M

Quantumania - $125M

GOTG Vol. 3 - $175M

The Marvels - $130M
Cap: NWO - $135M

Thunderbolts - $130M
Blade - $100M

Deadpool 3 - $210M

Fantastic Four - $150M

Avengers: The Kang Dynasty - $265M

Avengers: Secret Wars - $310M

 

Quantumania I fear could be smaller

GoTG seems right, should have been higher, could be higher depending on trailer

Marvels for now guess this will drop unless trailer sells it.

NWO depends on trailer other wise under 100M.

Thunderbolt under $100M

Blade no idea. Reviews and trailers.

Deadpool 3, 200M+.

Fantastic 4 depends on buildup

Kang Dynasty depend on how Loki, Quantumania and Fantastic 4 turns out. 200-350M

Secret War again how Kang Dynasty goes 200-400M.

 

On the latter 2, not too hopeful. Hopefully Phase V do better 

Edited November 12, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[jedijake]

The word "Avengers" doesn't guarantee they will be on the level of IW and EG. We haven't had the real build up for either of these like we did for 6 years leading to IW. Kang's been a blip so far (no pun intended) and we've had nothing for Secret Wars yet.

[RthDeadWov]

I'd been going with BP2 85m

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, RthMav said:

I'd been going with BP2 85m

 

[keysersoze123]

Nice

[BluKyberCrystal]

19 minutes ago, jedijake said:

The word "Avengers" doesn't guarantee they will be on the level of IW and EG. We haven't had the real build up for either of these like we did for 6 years leading to IW. Kang's been a blip so far (no pun intended) and we've had nothing for Secret Wars yet.

What real build up was there for IW over 6 years? You had the Avengers post-credit, GotG, and the Avengers post-credit. We weren't even made aware of the stones until TDW, and even that ended up retrofitting a good number of things to turn them into stones. Did IM3, TWS, Ant-Man, Civil War, Strange, GotG v2, Homecoming, Ragnarok, and BP actually build to IW in a meaningful well?

 

What made IW feel "built up" to, was the character familiarity. And you can only get that over a period of time.

Edited November 12, 2022 by BluKyberCrystal

[DAR]

12 minutes ago, RthMav said:

I'd been going with BP2 85m

Sounds good

[Nikostar]

12 minutes ago, RthMav said:

I'd been going with BP2 85m

Nice. 57 million true Friday. Hope it can go up 2 more million when actuals come.

[Spidey Freak]

16 minutes ago, RthMav said:

I'd been going with BP2 85m

 

Already confirming backloadedness. 190M OW coming through

 

[Factcheck]

37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Quantumania I fear could be smaller

GoTG seems right, should have been higher, could be higher depending on trailer

Marvels for now guess this will drop unless trailer sells it.

NWO depends on trailer other wise under 100M.

Thunderbolt under $100M

Blade no idea. Reviews and trailers.

Deadpool 3, 200M+.

Fantastic 4 depends on buildup

Kang Dynasty depend on how Loki, Quantumania and Fantastic 4 turns out. 200-350M

Secret War again how Kang Dynasty goes 200-400M.

 

On the latter 2, not too hopeful. Hopefully Phase V do better 

What if The Marvels do less than 600M(under 300M DOM & under 300M OS) which is a real possibility & then they reveal/announce that Captain Marvel will be the main lead of Avengers 5? What would be the impact on the box office of Avengers 5 if that happens?

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

What if The Marvels do less than 600M(under 300M DOM & under 300M OS) which is a real possibility & then they reveal/announce that Captain Marvel will be the main lead of Avengers 5? What would be the impact on the box office of Avengers 5 if that happens?

Will check with Papa Feige and get back to you.

[CJohn]

85M fucks good but I want more. Give me 88M. A clean 60M True Friday.

[Cooper Legion]

57 off of 28 is about right, probably high 170s. If we can squeeze another couple mil out DS2 could remain in play. 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Verrows]

They really did it! It's not a masterpiece and I have a tiny gripe about the pacing in the first act - feels like a bunch of scenes just stitched together - and a few story/character choices I would have done differently but overall I loved it. Best of MCU 2022 and probably even better than No Way Home even if No Way Home was a bigger dopamine hit.

[Verrows]

Just now, Legion By Night said:

57 off of 28 is. About right, probably high 170s. If we can squeeze another couple mil out DS2 could remain in play. 

How big or small do you see the Saturday drop being. @keysersoze123 mentioned 20% drop in presales.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, Verrows said:

How big or small do you see the Saturday drop being. @keysersoze123 mentioned 20% drop in presales.

 

Saturday should be within 5% of today, +/- either direction. 

[M37]

2 hours ago, Eric Killmonger said:

I know this isn't the first time the boards has argued this, but I'm kind of coming around to the idea that this may be the peak for opening weekends a la the M*A*S*H* finale/Thriller tbh. At the very least for like 10 more years. Combo of moviegoing attendance on the consistent decline and just what feels possible is starting to shrink. Even the closest candidates like a new Potter or one of the Avatar sequels feel kinda shaky.

I'll not only co-sign, but go one step further:

 

I think you can draw a nice little triangle of TFA --> Endgame --> NWH in terms of their opening week gross ($391-->$474-->$386) and literally map out the peak of modern box office grosses. From an OW/Week hype and grossing potential perspective, IMO the best BO days are in the rear view mirror, in that I don't believe anything is topping those marks for a very, very long time*

 

The longest gap between OW records since Jaws is only 4.5 years (Lost World to Harry Potter), and it might be 10-15 years for ticket prices to inflate enough at current admit levels to reach even $300M, let alone challenge Endgame

List courtesy of Forbes

 

Even from a total gross perspective, maybe you get something like an Avatar/Titanic (aka TGM) that comes along and with great WOM and accumulates a high total over time, but I won't be surprised if $800M DOM stays out out reach for a while too*. In some ways, NWH and TGM - both a mix of modern story but also nostalgia - might have been the last hurrah, with the Batman/MoM/JWD/Thor/BPWF level as the new baseline level for tentpoles

 

And sure, some of this is the result of the pandemic, but I believe it just accelerated the process that was already beginning, which is as streaming options pulled away more casual viewers, movies are becoming a more upscale/high priced, experience driven - rather than content - entertainment. Unless it reverses (and I don't think it will) that leads to a smaller theatrical audience (fewer admissions), but with a much larger emphasis on PLF

 

*No, I haven't forgotten what film comes out next month. There's a reason I started an Under club...

[excel1]

4 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

Holy crap its at Black Adam levels 🤯