A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Valonqar]

A2 has underperformed on OW (lower side of expectations) there's no way around it. Maybe it's WC in which case it should recover since it's over now. But if it's general lack of interest + overlong running time, watch out. Will be interesting to follow.

[Cooper Legion]

Relative edge vs Thor’s daily pattern of:

fri/th 1.51x

sat/fri 1.19x

Sun/sat 1.065x

 

If it holds — I guess 1.6 1.2 1.1 was a decent amount of ratio tightening after all  

[JohnnyGossamer]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Fully expecting Sunday to be underestimated with how busy it's still looking near me so guessing that number goes up $3M or so with actuals tomorrow.

Same. Expecting this to be a HUGE matinee movie. I think it'll do 38M+ today... Maybe even just over/under 40M. I'm wrong a lot so I'm sure I'll be wrong here too though. Hope I'm right! Would bode well for legs... An early sign but a good one.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Closer than 42-43 though 

Imagine how unfortunate it would be to have given a 95% chance of 42-43 

[Nikostar]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

A2 has underperformed on OW (lower side of expectations) there's no way around it. Maybe it's WC in which case it should recover since it's over now. But if it's general lack of interest + overlong running time, watch out. Will be interesting to follow.

Lower side of expectations would have been 150 so I think it's safe to say it came in way below predictions.

[Skim Beeble]

$137m actuals pls 🤞 

[cax16]

This will obviously have good legs and is gonna make a lot of money either way but I definitely expected a bigger opening weekend a month ago. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Same. Expecting this to be a HUGE matinee movie. I think it'll do 38M+ today... Maybe even just over/under 40M. I'm wrong a lot so I'm sure I'll be wrong here too though. Hope I'm right! Would bode well for legs... An early sign but a good one.

 

Sunday matinee would have to be bigger than Saturdays - and why would it?   For $38m it would have to dip just 11% from Saturday which is a lot to expect for such a long film before a work/school day.  With previews etc an 8pm show would get after 11:30pm

[JohnnyGossamer]

Will be fun to track A2 alongside R1 given the share the same exact calendar setup... 

 

R1

Thursday/Friday 71.1

Saturday 46.3

Sunday 37.7

 

A2

Thursday/Friday 53~

Saturday 44.5

Sunday ???

 

A2 already rapidly closing the gap and showing how much more frontloaded R1 was opening weekend and likely over its entire run compared to how A2 will be... I wouldn't be shocked at all if A2's first Sunday comes in above R1's first Sunday's 37.7... I think it'll be close. Also, it's a good sign that A2 will likely have higher weekday numbers Monday through Thursday than R1 did...

[ThomasNicole]

Well 500M is locked, now let's see if those legs will kick in and can bring it to 600-700M (which i still think it will)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Lets put the O/U at $65M for next weekend and see how it goes. 

[Minnale101]

Having watched both movies 

 

puss the boots sequel is better than avatar 2

 

im excited to follow box office next week

[M37]

A -18% Sunday is pretty strong, and given Disney usually lowballs, they must really like the early Sunday numbers

 

For those in the Avatar OW contest, here's what actual you're rooting for:

 

Player	Prediction	Win Range (Low to High)
Cap	$126.71	$126.25	$129.54
M37	$132.37	$129.54	$133.40
TalismanRing	$134.43	$133.40	$134.61
KlapEastwood	$134.78	$134.61	$135.39
Menor Reborn	$136.00	$135.39	$136.51
Skim Beeble	$137.03	$136.51	$137.78
DC Rich	$138.54	$137.78	$138.71
Lion Roar	$138.89	$138.71	$139.53
Just Lurking	$140.18	$139.53	$141.39

 

My guess is that comes up a bit to around $136M, almost exactly an 8x, probably putting @Menor Reborn in the pole position

[Psylocke]

Will its multiplier from its OW probably be either over TGM or under?

[Nikostar]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well 500M is locked, now let's see if those legs will kick in and can bring it to 600-700M (which i still think it will)

1 week ago people was saying 2 billion was locked. If it's one thing 2022 Boxoffice has taught us is to never assume based on the past Boxoffice history. COVID and streaming has changed everything.

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Sunday matinee would have to be bigger than Saturdays - and why would it?   For $38m it would have to dip just 11% from Saturday which is a lot to expect for such a long film before a work/school day.  With previews etc an 8pm show would get after 11:30pm

I was looking at more through the true Friday of 36M. I think with strong matinee shows and with shows starting earlier in the day, it'll do better on Sunday than it did on its true Friday. Kind of like how TGM was always better on Sunday than it was on Friday during it's run... Not to mention, while many schools still aren't out, there are at least some people off starting tomorrow or straight up mailing it in. 

[Nero]

9 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

$137m actuals pls 🤞 

Same lmao 😂

[Madhuvan]

While I am on heart attack after that WC finale

 

Who is making the new club of A2 below BP2 and TG2 ?

 

Because I am in.

 

A2 will have good leg for sure but I think BP2 can win this one

[titanic2187]

I realised all holdover have a relatively weaker Saturday bump this weekend compared to recent weeks. Is that anything major happened on Saturday?