A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[adaros]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

It’s not just that. It’s truly about how much connected people are with a franchise. That takes time, effort and presence, something that Marvel and Star Wars were able to build. Avatar might be a technical marvel, gorgeous to look at, but there is a lot competing for the general public’s interest. I mean I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t my most anticipated December film:

 

Last Star Wars trilogy destroyed lot of that connection not only looking at Rise of Skywalker box office underperformance, but also overall dedicated hardcore fans backslash trilogy received. Any new mainline Star Wars movies will need to face damage Disney trilogy did. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

It’s not just that. It’s truly about how much connected people are with a franchise. That takes time, effort and presence, something that Marvel and Star Wars were able to build. Avatar might be a technical marvel, gorgeous to look at, but there is a lot competing for the general public’s interest. I mean I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t my most anticipated December film:

 

 

I'd agree more if the same dozen people didn't wait for streaming with Strange 2 and Thor 4. I will say more of them did actually go out and see Panther 2. I think half of them probably expect A2 to be in the 45 to 50 day window Disney was using... I can't imagine that that's their plan with A2 though.

 

Glass Onion is great. I caught it the day after Thanksgiving in theaters during that one week it was theaters. Audience gobbled it up too. Would've had a nice run in theaters I think if it wasn't just a Netflix thing. So... Good for everyone getting to see it this Christmas but bummer for theaters. Would've been great counter programming and done very well through the holidays.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, adaros said:

Last Star Wars trilogy destroyed lot of that connection not only looking at Rise of Skywalker box office underperformance, but also overall dedicated hardcore fans backslash trilogy received. Any new mainline Star Wars movies will need to face damage Disney trilogy did. 

I’m not sure if people that say shit like ‘triggered blue checkmarks’ is part of the Star Wars target demo. Star Wars is fine. The Rise of Skywalker is fine, it broke $1B and ended the Skywalker Saga. And if ‘triggered’ people that think that the franchise is dead, what can I say? Good. Excellent. More of that, please.

[TalismanRing]

1

N

Avatar: The Way of Water

20th Century…

$134,100,226

4,202

$31,913

$134,100,226

1

 

 

[thajdikt]

Avatar will easily pass Top Gun worldwide. 1 billion by new year and 2 billion in Feb

[thajdikt]

Also Disney need to break that stupid window with Wakanda Forever and Avatar... Don´t put WF on D+ before March for the love of something. Same with Avatar. Wait to summer. These new habits needs to go. 

[ZattMurdock]

11 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'd agree more if the same dozen people didn't wait for streaming with Strange 2 and Thor 4. I will say more of them did actually go out and see Panther 2. I think half of them probably expect A2 to be in the 45 to 50 day window Disney was using... I can't imagine that that's their plan with A2 though.

 

Glass Onion is great. I caught it the day after Thanksgiving in theaters during that one week it was theaters. Audience gobbled it up too. Would've had a nice run in theaters I think if it wasn't just a Netflix thing. So... Good for everyone getting to see it this Christmas but bummer for theaters. Would've been great counter programming and done very well through the holidays.

It’s not because they think it will be available 40 days from now. They don’t care enough to go out of their way to see it, because they aren’t connected to Avatar like they are with the MCU and their characters from the movies you’ve mentioned. They will see it when it’s available at home. Cameron’s job is eventually make even more people to care about Avatar and it’s world.

 

As for Knives Out: Glass Onion. I would likely skip movie theaters even before covid, but I’m very excited to see it. Even if I would want to see it a movie theater, it’s not like it was ever available around here either.

[M37]

55 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I have a hard time believing so much to the audience who saw the first has no interest in A2. The thing is, anyone who does have interest will end up seeing it in theaters. This is not a wait for streaming movie, everyone knows that. People interested will be seeing it in theaters, that much I know. 

So I would argue there was going to be audience attrition no matter when a sequel was released - it’s just very difficult to recapture that magic a second time (see BPWF)
But waiting 13 years, making a “must see in PLF” & 3+ hour running time feature, after a global pandemic which 1) has caused some inflationary pressures which have priced some people out of the theatrical market and 2) accelerated a shift from theatrical to home (steaming), and under the umbrella of a studio which has seemingly gone out of its way to kneecap its own theatrical market share to boost its streaming subs … yeah, there’s not going to be nearly the same level of admits 

 

Its not that they don’t have interest (some % surely don’t), but that the cost & time commitment is such that it’s a headwind against whatever level of interest is present 

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Also Disney need to break that stupid window with Wakanda Forever and Avatar... Don´t put WF on D+ before March for the love of something. Same with Avatar. Wait to summer. These new habits needs to go. 

While I think it’s obvious that they will change the window, it’s not about the window, it’s about the connection. When people care, they will go out of their way to see it, as soon as possible. 
 

What changed for me since covid is that repeated viewings is a thing of the past, and if Disney changes the window, too bad, it won’t make me watch the same film after I’ve seen it once for a great good while. It’s enough risk of getting sick going to watch once. Things got a lot better, but we aren’t in the clear just yet.

[adaros]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I’m not sure if people that say shit like ‘triggered blue checkmarks’ is part of the Star Wars target demo. Star Wars is fine. The Rise of Skywalker is fine, it broke $1B and ended the Skywalker Saga. And if ‘triggered’ people that think that the franchise is dead, what can I say? Good. Excellent. More of that, please.

Target audience is old fans + new fans that fresh movies and tv series can crate.
Nobody is saying Star Wars is dead, they will still print Billions in BO when new movies are released. Stating that SW brand got damaged with new Disney trilogy is not overreaction. They can fix issues they had and hope they will take proper time to release some good quality movies for next potential trilogy that's what I hope for. 
And btw I laugh at twitter/reddit/4chan posts without making it political 

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

So I would argue there was going to be audience attrition no matter when a sequel was released - it’s just very difficult to recapture that magic a second time (see BPWF)
But waiting 13 years, making a “must see in PLF” & 3+ hour running time feature, after a global pandemic which 1) has caused some inflationary pressures which have priced some people out of the theatrical market and 2) accelerated a shift from theatrical to home (steaming), and under the umbrella of a studio which has seemingly gone out of its way to kneecap its own theatrical market share to boost its streaming subs … yeah, there’s not going to be nearly the same level of admits 

 

Its not that they don’t have interest (some % surely don’t), but that the cost & time commitment is such that it’s a headwind against whatever level of interest is present 

This is the boat I'm in. If Avatar 2 was 2 hours long I'd probably be like, yeah sure, I wasn't crazy about the first one but I'd still want to see it. Over 3 hours? Ehhhhhhh... I'm still undecided. I imagine a lot of people feel similarly.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, adaros said:

Target audience is old fans + new fans that fresh movies and tv series can crate.
Nobody is saying Star Wars is dead, they will still print Billions in BO when new movies are released. Stating that SW brand got damaged with new Disney trilogy is not overreaction. They can fix issues they had and hope they will take proper time to release some good quality movies for next potential trilogy that's what I hope for. 
And btw I laugh at twitter/reddit/4chan posts without making it political 

Whatever.

[IronJimbo]

what are you doomers expecting for today then?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

what are you doomers expecting for today then?

 

$17-18M

 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

1

N

Avatar: The Way of Water

20th Century…

$134,100,226

4,202

$31,913

$134,100,226

1

 

 

 

-17.496% Sat-> Sun vs R1's -18.634% Sat -> Sun

 

(posting for calendar purposes only)

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

This is the boat I'm in. If Avatar 2 was 2 hours long I'd probably be like, yeah sure, I wasn't crazy about the first one but I'd still want to see it. Over 3 hours? Ehhhhhhh... I'm still undecided. I imagine a lot of people feel similarly.

I didn’t see Batman in theaters because of the running time (plus slower pace), and knowing it was going to be on HBO in short order. Also would have probably caught Glass Onion, but that 7-day window was too short to make work, so we wait for Netflix 

 

Thankfully studios are starting to wise about these short release windows, but a lot of the damage is already done, because the GA is accustomed to it, and less willing to pay for the immediacy and experience 

[Mulder]

That's the other thing about TGM's run. Tom Cruise being able to leverage it to stay off of Paramount+ for as long as it has is a massive reason for that 5x. We'll see if anyone else has the clout to do that kind of thing.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I didn’t see Batman in theaters because of the running time (plus slower pace), and knowing it was going to be on HBO in short order. Also would have probably caught Glass Onion, but that 7-day window was too short to make work, so we wait for Netflix 

 

Thankfully studios are starting to wise about these short release windows, but a lot of the damage is already done, because the GA is accustomed to it, and less willing to pay for the immediacy and experience 

If people truly think that changing the window will change the box office returns drastically, they are in for a rude awakening. The streaming services during the pandemic only accelerated a process that was already in course. 

[adaros]

12 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

This is the boat I'm in. If Avatar 2 was 2 hours long I'd probably be like, yeah sure, I wasn't crazy about the first one but I'd still want to see it. Over 3 hours? Ehhhhhhh... I'm still undecided. I imagine a lot of people feel similarly.

3h+ runtime was always a concern and I clearly see there will be some hefty % of people not wanting to see it because of that alone. For next installments they either make it shorter (which is unlikely with Cameron) or accept that gross can go lower from movie to movie. 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

what are you doomers expecting for today then?

Weekdays are going to be difficult to interpret I think, in that they could be higher due the massive PLF demand rolling forward, but also Thursday and Fri were a bit lower, Sat & Sun higher suggesting its more a weekend audience (see BPWF)

I’m expecting -50% for Mon, but won’t be surprised if it’s 10% higher or lower