A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Ryan Reynolds]

8 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Bottom 5 space films: Cloverfield Paradox, Life, Passengers, Fast and Furious 9, Roland Emmerich.

Jason X, Alien Covenant ?

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

Disney

SATURDAY PM UPDATE: 20th Century Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water minted an estimated $45M Saturday which will put the James Cameron directed sequel at a 3-day opening of $135M per sources. That’s the 6th best domestic debut in December after Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1M), Force Awakens ($247.9M), Last Jedi ($220M), Rise of Skywalker ($177.3M) and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M).

Despite Avatar: The Way of Water missing its $150M-$175M projections, the town doesn’t seem bothered –nor do they believe that the sky is falling for cinema– particularly for a movie that cost according to sources (not Disney) at about around $460M before P&A.

 

Uhhh, how is that?

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/

Edited December 18, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds

[GipJo]

1 hour ago, shruth said:

the maoyan webite is super buggy and keeps crashing for me. Is it like this for anyone else? The dashboard used to be better before now its borderline unusable

Just download the app, Chinese companies hate website, they usually don't maintain them well.

[Nikostar]

How did The Whale do? Was last weekend just a fluke?

[ando]

$45M is pretty decent IMO

[shachi86]

Can't even get to $100m in 2 days, including previews! #NotAnEvent

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Jason X ?

The best space movie of all time. No contest. 

[JustLurking]

+25% sat over friday jump is a solid jump I guess, 136ish weekend?

[ando]

$40M Sunday or no? (maybe $38?)

[shachi86]

4 minutes ago, ando said:

$40M Sunday or no? (maybe $38?)

 

I'd say $34-36 is reasonable. Similar drop to Rogue One.

[shruth]

36 minutes ago, shachi86 said:

Can't even get to $100m in 2 days, including previews! #NotAnEvent

peoples foresight is really short its laughable. When this finished $550m+ dom lets hashtag #NotAnEvent again

[incognitoo]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

Disney

...and the crowd goes wild....

[shruth]

15 minutes ago, shachi86 said:

 

I'd say $34-36 is reasonable. Similar drop to Rogue One.

id say 35-38. It's already tracking better than rogue one so should do slightly higher unless the world cup really does make a difference and stops walk ons for the day. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Pretty nice Saturday number. I think Sunday number should be strong enough to take A2 to 135 to 140 OW DOM. From there, thinking 4.5~ multiplier for a 620M~ DOM TOTAL.

[Nero]

31 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

+25% sat over friday jump is a solid jump I guess, 136ish weekend?

Hope it's 137

Edited December 18, 2022 by Nero
For reasons 😅

[JohnnyGossamer]

So, yeah, with limited info, that's my take.... Something between 575M and 650M DOM final based on this OW DOM. WoM will be strong and, obviously, this will play extremely well on premium screens which it has to itself for a long, long while here coming up.

 

While I think a 4 multi is kinda the floor... I also assume something around a 5 or maybe a little over a 5 multi is the ceiling. Should be a pretty fun run to track... Saturday number while not mind blowing is very encouraging.

[ZattMurdock]

$45m is an amazing SAT for Avatar. If it tops $130m OW it almost guarantees going for $500m+ DOM. I have no idea how multipliers work since the pandemic, but taking R1 multiplier as a mirror, I think that we are looking at around $460-$560m DOM for this. Like I’ve said years ago, A2 is more about reestablishing Avatar as a successful franchise than breaking records. It does make me wonder how better it would far out on an environment without COVID, either in China or elsewhere.

[JohnnyGossamer]

15 minutes ago, Nero said:

Hope it's 137

With that Saturday number, I think it will be 137M+ for the weekend. I think it'll have strong Sunday DOM numbers like TGM did during its run... Matinees are big for a movie like this one.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

$45m is an amazing SAT for Avatar. If it tops $130m OW it almost guarantees going for $500m+ DOM. I have no idea how multipliers work since the pandemic, but taking R1 multiplier as a mirror, I think that we are looking at around $460-$560m DOM for this. Like I’ve said years ago, A2 is more about reestablishing Avatar as a successful franchise than breaking records. It does make me wonder how better it would far out on an environment without COVID, either in China or elsewhere.

While I think R1 is good baseline, given it started with a higher OW DOM and, more importantly, is a SW movie so absolutely more front loaded, I think the baseline will be comfortably above the 3.45 OW DOM multiplier that R1 had. I'm thinking more 4 multi as the floor.

[Gkalaitza]

With a $137m OW it "just" needs a x4.2 multi to for >~$575m . Doable