A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[eXtacy]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Not impossible but this would be very surprising. I'm thinking like....

 

17 - 39 - 44 - 36 = 136

 

I just cant see this being as frontloaded as a comic book films, which your projection basically is a 1:1 TFSS of Batman 2022.

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

Verified Score started at 90% with less than 50 votes, then it went up to 91% with 50+, and now it sits at 92% with 100+

 

 

RT updates the scores at 50, 100, 500, 1k, 2.5k, 5k, 10k, 25k and 50k votes

 

 

If it keeps following the same trend, this means... 

99% with 50k votes!!!

94% with 250 votes 😳

[Ronin46]

Will A3 even get released? (contributing to page count, not being serious ..or am I..)

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Not impossible but this would be very surprising. I'm thinking like....

 

17 - 39 - 44 - 36 = 136

Yeah similar numbers for me though maybe a tad lower on Fri and higher on Sat and Sun. I don't see Fri being higher than JWD the way comps are going.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, eXtacy said:

 

I just cant see this being as frontloaded as a comic book films, which your projection basically is a 1:1 TFSS of Batman 2022.

 

Trust me I'd love for your numbers to come to fruition but The Batman may be a surprisingly good comp for this.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

Will A3 even get released? (contributing to page count, not being serious ..or am I..)

 

 

No, it's over. In fact I hear Disney is sending a sicario over to New Zealand to snipe Cameron and stop him from completing the film as we speak.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

Will A3 even get released? (contributing to page count, not being serious ..or am I..)

 

 

I do think that if this only does about 500m domestic with the long awaited sequel reception and hype bump, then Avatar 3 is probably gonna get kind of shitty reviews and less than 400m domestic. And at that point, can you really justify Avatar 4+?

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Will A3 even get released? (contributing to page count, not being serious ..or am I..)

 

 

Yes

[M37]

4 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

 

I just cant see this being as frontloaded as a comic book films, which your projection basically is a 1:1 TFSS of Batman 2022.

Batman played kinda weird, and was not nearly as frontloaded as the other (MCU) comic book movies.  Hitting that multiplier (also basically same as TGM) would be a bit on low side of expectations, but reasonable

[krla]

17 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Having seen this, I don't think it will be as well recieved as the first one. The film could have been 30 minutes shorter, and well, for a 3 hour plus film, not much happens honestly. 

 

Though, I still think $450m Domestic. China will probably eat this up which will propel it past the original world wide. 

This is what happens when creative types get little pushback from studios. JC had to make Terminator on a budget, and I remember him saying how he basically wrote it with that in mind, because what he really wanted wasn't feasible with the budget constraints. IIRC it would have basically been a completely different film. And he didn't initially want Arnold, since he wanted that character to be smaller and unassuming and blend in. With Titanic the studio came down on him when he blew past the budget, and he made some changes (I don't know what) and gave up his fee. Where did the external pressures on him come from with A2? He basically has a bunch of yes men around him. Luckily he's a genius, so he's not going to serve up a complete turd (which occasionally happens when directors are given too much rope).

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Jokes aside, I'm pretty sure Deadline actually does have a Comscore source that can give them reliable data, though they sometimes choose to present that in a slanted way. Here, it looks like they're giving it straight, which is rare but not unheard of. 

The slant would be framing this as a 7pm release in order to convince readers it is doing better than it is.

7 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

If Batman can make 137m of 17m Thursday then Avatar 2 should be hitting 150m+. Its Saturday and Sunday should be much stronger and less frontloaded. Not seeing where the 130-140m projections come from.

If the bulk of viewing is in PLFs, then there's a false ceiling. So being backloaded basically just means it is selling all the PLFs it can, so there will naturally be a limit to the IM. I think roughly 80% of the first film came from 3d/imax. If we look at a film like Endgame, which made around $72m (?) in PLF/3d its OW, that's probably close to full capacity as you can get. Adjust ticket prices, add in a few bucks for more PLFs, then you have roughly 80% of what A2 might be able to bring in, if people avoid 2D. Though Endgame had a lot of theaters that ran screenings almost 24/7, whereas A2 doesn't seem to be getting that.

 

But this should help with its legs. If A2 is hitting a false ceiling, next weekend (and the weekdays) should have a really decent hold.

[ky02121]

45 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

The Deadline article said The Batman had 17.6 thursday for a 137mil. weekend, but its Thursday showings started at 3pm, while A2's start at 7pm.

Also JW had a 18.6mil Thursday, also from 7pm showings like A2, but had a 208mil OW.

 

So why are people putting predictions around The Batmans OW ?.

 

Also in the article they put this -

 

 

Does that parry up with peoples tracking estimates on here?, and if it DOES, why is there so much negativity?.

My show was at 3PM

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yeah similar numbers for me though maybe a tad lower on Fri and higher on Sat and Sun. I don't see Fri being higher than JWD the way comps are going.

I'm basically penciling in TGM's pattern (using True Thur) with a softer (non-holiday + World Cup) Sunday until proven otherwise. So like 17/37/43.5/35.5 = $133

[eXtacy]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Trust me I'd love for your numbers to come to fruition but The Batman may be a surprisingly good comp for this.

 

I don't see why. They are very different films from very different franchise historys. Only thing in common is long length. Demographics very differnt. Thinking of taking my nephews to see Avatar, wouldnt dream of doing that for The Batman based on its mature marketing. Thinking this is much more family friendly and has larger four quadrant base. We've only had one Avatar and how many Batman films?

 

Thinking Jurassic World franchise is a better comparison. The Batman not so sure yet until more numbers.

[BluKyberCrystal]

22 minutes ago, Cap said:

I’m about ready to start Terminator. I don’t think I’ve seen it in like 15 years. Should I live blog it? Asks for the page counts. 

Yes!

[Vector Sigma]

I'm thinking at best this ends up with The Lion King numbers. The film's strong themes on family should play well overseas. If the cinemascore is an A which I think it should get, a 160 opening weekend and 3.5 multiplier should be reasonable. Still bullish on a 160 opening weekend due to the length of the film. People are gonna be seeing this on the weekend. I wouldn't be shocked if it dropped to 140 though. 

[Ozymandias]

btw happy 20th anniversary to this masterpiece

 

[grey ghost]

How was Beauty and the Beast?

 

 

[Cap]

Terminator Live Blog:

• I am here for anything from the 1980s that thinks the world is gonna blow up in 2029. (Scary how accurate they were. Maybe the cocaine helped them see the future. 
• Linda Hamilton getting third billing is WILD
• Score feels like it’s gonna be a banger
• Hello, Arnold. That entrance was pretty bad ass, but was it? 
  
• God Arnold’s ass is outstanding. What a place to pause while I calm Judy down for bed. 

 

 

 

[MikeQ]

Has the LOTR trilogy had a substantive wide re-release since it was in theatres originally (ala Titanic)? I don’t think so - and it really should.

 

I was young when the films came out (and saw them a million times), and would love to see them on the big screen again.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited December 16, 2022 by MikeQ

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How was Beauty and the Beast?

 

 

Honestly incredibly frustrating. 
 

The live cast was too talented for them to just do the musical performances, and not actually the entire Broadway production. And they had Josh Groban sing evermore instead of if I can’t have her so the entire thing was invalidated. But H.E.R. was excellent, and the costumes were awesome, and Josh Henry killed Gaston. basically I just wish it had been the full musical. It would’ve been spectacular.