A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Nero]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

it’s just a question of how long it takes for everyone to recognize and accept it 

Atleast 100 pages and few epic MELTDOWNS xD 

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Seems like strong A cinemascore is coming like the first one. 

 

Like i said, if the legs ended up being disappointing we'll have a hard time figuring out why because the WOM is there with nearly non-existent competition for more than 2 months

 

Because we don't really know the WOM yet.  

[Nero]

3 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

 

 

go to animal kingdom.

Wtf 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

Because we don't really know the WOM yet.  

I'm obviously talking about early data which yes we know and they're pretty good to great everywhere

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It's not a strong as the first (which is possibly the best WOM of the decade so it's fine not surpassing), but not nearly close? Eh, early data itself seems close enough to me.

I should clarify that it may be close percentage wise but the difference between 95%-type WOM (A) and 99%-type WOM (A+) is important for BO, the latter gives you a lot more potential to really catch fire.

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

I should clarify that it may be close percentage wise but the difference between 95%-type WOM (A) and 99%-type WOM (A+) is important for BO, the latter gives you a lot more potential to really catch fire.

95% is a 400% increase in people disliking it!

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

I should clarify that it may be close percentage wise but the difference between 95%-type WOM (A) and 99%-type WOM (A+) is important for BO, the latter gives you a lot more potential to really catch fire.

Sure, that's why i expect ~5x multiplier instead of the 10x Avatar had

[Lestranger]

17 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Neither Titanic or Avatar openings were considered underwhelming at their time!

 

Perhaps I am misremembering, but I distinctly recall that both openings did not match the hype leading up to them. The press was gushing over the massive production budgets for both, which led people to make crazy statements about how much the movies would need to make to be profitable. Also, the legs of each movie Titanic at 23x and Avatar at 10x were paradigm shifts for the entire industry. So the opening weekend did not really point at all to what the domestic or international box office would be for either film. But my memory is more social than factual. I just remember the news downplaying the openings of both as underwhelming.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

95% is a 400% increase in people disliking it!

But since the OG Avatar have 82% on audience score, 95% is actually 1300% increase in people loving it. 

 

4 billion locked! 

 

(yes i know they change their metric)

Edited December 16, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Nero said:

Atleast 100 pages and few epic MELTDOWNS xD 

Not all the meltdowns will happen this weekend though, as “but legs” will be the copium, then next weekend will be “wait til after Christmas”, before reality finally sinks in by January 

[AJG]

24 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Neither Titanic or Avatar openings were considered underwhelming at their time!

 

This is not true. I fully remember reading article calling the Avatar OW a disaster back in 2009. The narrative didn't turn until the following week.

[Hatebox]

9 minutes ago, Nero said:

Wtf 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

 

This was a BS news story when the first came out. Just being recycled now.

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm obviously talking about early data which yes we know and they're pretty good to great everywhere

 

1) "pretty good to great" would be worse WOM than the original since that could be considered something like "out of this world"

 

2) it's a sequel and good to great sometimes doesn't cut it.  BPWF had an A CS and is at 94% RT verified and also had little to no competition and nobody is gonna say it had a great run are they?  

[CoolioD1]

yeah i remember the gloating on some sections on the internet after avatar's opening weekend, but think the box office mojo forums mostly saw it as a good opening. in line with what people were predicting pretty much.

[ThomasNicole]

I know using data is the point of the forum but honestly you take specifities way too seriously sometimes imo. 

 

Like "A2 early WOM data isn't on the same insane level of A1 so legs can be disappointing" and honestly it doesn't need and doesn't have to be on the same level, the GP doesn't care about this details, they just need to like the movie, which is why i'm celebrating early data, they're great.

 

Despite the early shows messing things a bit, Jumani and Aquaman had super leggy runs (around to over 5x) with an A- and B+ Cinemascore. Avatar obviously will open way higher, but it's also a longer movie which will probably hurt it's OW at some degree and also have pretty non-competition for months.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I should clarify that it may be close percentage wise but the difference between 95%-type WOM (A) and 99%-type WOM (A+) is important for BO, the latter gives you a lot more potential to really catch fire.

The market conditions and type of movie also matter. Woman King got an A+ but didn’t help to broaden audience (at least theatrically) while films like TGM, Elvis and Batman brought in people who were on the fence or had written it off initially because of reviews/WOM 

 

Legs should be fine to good here, but don’t think there’s a broad swath of people who had low expectations for Avatwo and will be pushed off the fence to go pay to watch it 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

1) "pretty good to great" would be worse WOM than the original since that could be considered something like "out of this world"

 

2) it's a sequel and good to great sometimes doesn't cut it.  BPWF had an A CS and is at 94% RT verified and also had little to no competition and nobody is gonna say it had a great run are they?  

Like i just argue, not being insane like the first one doesn't matter and honestly outside of very few people no one expect the same type of legs as well.

 

BP have a lot of problems beyond it's great reception that hurt it and this is being discussed to death for over a month so i'm not entering this, but it's not comparable to Avatar at all so whatever.

[Hatebox]

Dang, I hadn't checked Wakanda's takings since it started. Barely half the first's WW gross is quite a drop, especially after the trailer's spectacular reception.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The Chinese opening weekend projections cratered to around $50M. It's looking more and more like Avatar 3 will indeed be the final chapter. I wonder if Disney will get worried and delay it to December 2025 to try to course correct.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

t don’t think there’s a broad swath of people who had low expectations for Avatwo and will be pushed off the fence to go pay to watch it 

You just have to search what people says about Avatar on social media to see this is not entirely true. 

 

The fact that a lot of the discussion around this franchise is about how nobody cares about it and it's sequel should be enough reason to believe there is a lot of people that don't have any good expectations about it.