A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Ozymandias]

120m would be spicy

[The Wild Eric]

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/

 

Also from Deadline...

 

Quote

As far as the rest of the box office: Disney/Marvel Studio’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at 3,380 theaters is seeing a Friday of $1.7M and sixth weekend of $6M, -47% for a running total of $419.5M by Sunday. The sequel beat the domestic total of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($411.3M) on Tuesday.

 

Universal’s Violent Night booked at 3,525 theaters is eyeing a $1.5M Friday, -38%, for a third weekend of $5.3M, -39%, and a total by Sunday of $35.2M.

 

Fourth belongs to Disney’s Strange World on 2,870 with a fourth Friday of $600K, weekend of $2.7M, -29% and running total of $34.2M.

 

And Searchlight’s The Menu 1,875 theaters is seeing a $530K Friday, -36%, fifth weekend of $1.7M, -39% for a running total $32.1M. The movie is $2.2M away from overtaking Searchlight’s Oscar winning 2018 arthouse title The Favorite which finaled domestic at $34.1M. The movie has already surpassed such trippy genre titles as Midsommar ($27.4M) and Searchlight’s own Ready or Not ($28.7M).

 

Ladies and gentlemen, we have another one on the board!

[Dragoncaine]

Deadline gonna Deadline, but overall yeah sounds like $130-140m as widely indicated in this thread. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Skim Beeble]

Yeah i was expecting holdovers to be stronger than expected, probably being alternatives to sold out Avatar PLF screenings.

[M37]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Deadline - it's $55M Friday, unless it's not.  It's $150M weekend, unless it's $120M, but those $120M people don't have access to presales.  I kid, but I don't...

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/

 

 

 "Disney/20th Century Studios’ Avatar: The Way of Water is heading to a $55M Friday at 4,202 theaters, which is inclusive of its $17M Thursday previews, and the 6th best Friday ever in December, ahead of The Hobbit‘s $37.1M back in Dec 14, 2012. I’m told at this point in time this could still get the movie to over $150M for the weekend. Some sources are seeing $120M for the weekend, but I’m told that they don’t have access to the presales and play pattern of those advance ticket sales."

 

Other movies...

 

"As far as the rest of the box office: Disney/Marvel Studio’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at 3,380 theaters is seeing a Friday of $1.7M and sixth weekend of $6M, -47% for a running total of $419.5M by Sunday. The sequel beat the domestic total of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($411.3M) on Tuesday.

Universal’s Violent Night booked at 3,525 theaters is eyeing a $1.5M Friday, -38%, for a third weekend of $5.3M, -39%, and a total by Sunday of $35.2M.

Fourth belongs to Disney’s Strange World on 2,870 with a fourth Friday of $600K, weekend of $2.7M, -29% and running total of $34.2M.

And Searchlight’s The Menu 1,875 theaters is seeing a $530K Friday, -36%, fifth weekend of $1.7M, -39% for a running total $32.1M. "

So prob $36-$38M TFri (I don’t expect it to go up much), and $130-$140M weekend. Pretty much right where tracking had it, nothing shocking here 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

If it ended up with 40M true FRI, 140M is probably locked and gives more chances at 150M depending on SAT jump

[MrPink]

So my sources are the people who don't have access to PLAY PATTERNS of advance tickets sales

 

 

 

 

[DC Rich]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

So, he's getting his early information from Deadline now.

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

interesting. would be a good sign for walkups not being as bad as it looked like if it came on the higher range. though if he's ranging it 38-40 feels decently enough about it atleast not being underestimated by deadline.

 

albeit with this runtime could easily see this underperform at night - not sure if they're already keeping that into consideration however.

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Seems like Deadline (and their "sources") are also on the team "people is just waiting to PFL screens and they don't care in waiting for it" 

 

That said, if Avatar 2 comes in under its $150M expectations, it’s because audiences are waiting to secure ideal seats in a premium format — and the best time might be after this weekend. I’m hearing in markets like NYC and LA, it’s difficult to get an Imax, Dolby or PLF ticket for this weekend. While there’s plenty of 3D showtimes for Avatar 2, the U.S. marketplace is underscreened when it comes to Imax, Dolby and key PLFs, particularly in regards to the demand here. Per recent MPAA stats, only 35% of the 43,6K screens stateside are digital 3D. 

 

great example of this is the Lincoln Square imax is almost completely sold out for the weekend and a lot of screenings are already nearly sold out continuing through next weekend. even like 10:45 on a monday night has a crazy amount of seats sold. 

[Napoleon]

Based on the reactions I've seen already from friends who don't even talk about movies, I have a good feeling about the legs.

[Ryan Reynolds]

worldwide opening closer to 400m? 5x legs , 2 billion floor is LOCKED

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

great example of this is the Lincoln Square imax is almost completely sold out for the weekend and a lot of screenings are already nearly sold out continuing through next weekend. even like 10:45 on a monday night has a crazy amount of seats sold. 

Yes, it's a reasonable argument for it's lower OW than early presales indicates. It's happening overseas as well.

 

If there's one movie everyone interested in it knows it's better in a PFL screen, is this one. 

 

Based on weekdays we'll know if this is a strong factor.

[Nikostar]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

So prob $36-$38M TFri (I don’t expect it to go up much), and $130-$140M weekend. Pretty much right where tracking had it, nothing shocking here 

Nothing shocking and nothing great

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

1 Billion baby 1 Billion 😀

Trio of billions title almost 3x400m domestic, what a franchise !

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Yeah i was expecting holdovers to be stronger than expected, probably being alternatives to sold out Avatar PLF screenings.

 

Problem is, lack of screens. 

 

This is from one of the best theaters in my region:

 

A2: 7 screens (inc PLF)     (26 showings)

Spoiler Alert: 0.5 screens    (2 showings)

Violent Night: 2 screens      (7 showings)

Devotion: 0.5 screens          (2 showings)

Strange World: 1 screen      (4 showings)

She Said: 0.5 screens          (2 showings)

The Menu: 1 screen             (5 showings)

BP2: 1.75 screens                (5 showings)

Spirited: 0.75 screens         (3 showings)

BA: 0.5 screens                    (2 showings)

 

Adds up to more than 14 screens due to mixing and matching and shuffling and what not, but I think the pattern is pretty clear.  Especially when difference in auditorium size is factored in.  

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Trio of billions title almost 3x400m domestic, what a franchise !

 

Jurassic Park is non-ironically one of the best moneymakers of the modern era.

[BluKyberCrystal]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Problem is, lack of screens. 

 

This is from one of the best theaters in my region:

 

A2: 7 screens (inc PLF)     (26 showings)

Spoiler Alert: 0.5 screens    (2 showings)

Violent Night: 2 screens      (7 showings)

Devotion: 0.5 screens          (2 showings)

Strange World: 1 screen      (4 showings)

She Said: 0.5 screens          (2 showings)

The Menu: 1 screen             (5 showings)

BP2: 1.75 screens                (5 showings)

Spirited: 0.75 screens         (3 showings)

BA: 0.5 screens                    (2 showings)

 

Adds up to more than 14 screens due to mixing and matching and shuffling and what not, but I think the pattern is pretty clear.  Especially when difference in auditorium size is factored in.  

How will Puss and Boots effect this?

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, it's a reasonable argument for it's lower OW than early presales indicates. It's happening overseas as well.

 

If there's one movie everyone interested in it knows it's better in a PFL screen, is this one. 

 

Based on weekdays we'll know if this is a strong factor.

 

But is that actually a good strategy for overall gross, though?

 

Most theaters are restricted to one PLF screen. Some may have more, but not a lot more*.

* I do have a local that advertises four "Giant Screens", but how PLF-ish they actually are is up to debate - and either way the theater in question isn't nearly as popular as it was five or six years ago.

 

They're more expensive tickets.  Disney or Cameron is making it so that most of the big boys are having 3D PLF which adds even more to the cost (last I heard, it was around 75% of all PLF showings were 3D).  3D is still stigmatized in the States.

 

So you're artificially limiting supply (by focusing on PLF screens) and demand (implying that it isn't "as good" if it's not seen in 3D PLF).

 

I mean, if you can convince people to do it, it's great.  But back in 2009 all you had to do is convince people to see it on a 3D screen, as PLF wasn't nearly the thing it is now.  By sending a message of PLF IS SUPERIOR, just seems... I dunno.  It's kinda like marketing to cinephiles while not focusing on the hoi poloi.

 

Like, it kinda reminds me about commercials and advertising that is directed toward audiophiles (and their "golden ears").  Everything that is said about the audio quality might be true... But is it actually true enough to get the punters to buy it?

 

I don't know!  I do think that PLF demand is gonna be pretty strong past the OW, and that's gonna help with the overall gross.  But what about all of the other seats?  How much of the potential audience will just decide to wait if they decide that PLF isn't worth it to them?   That's the real question I have about A2's run past the OW.