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[JohnnyGossamer]

15 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Well it was also the worst Jurassic Movie, so all fair.

 

I'm talking about the doom that set in after its opening weekend and reception. Only for it to somehow squeak past Billion milestone.

Well, sure... But, like many of the blockbusters that somewhat disappointed given our expectations going into the OW for each (Strange, Thor, Wakanda), JW3 made much less than initially expected before a lot of the trackers had tracking info... That movie appeals to such a wide audience and doesn't require anywhere near the investment of a MCU movie in terms of seeing past films. 400M+ DOM seemed a lock. But, it did 375M DOM and has the worst OW DOM multi of an Jurassic flick.

 

Regarding OS/WW totals, it had China too, correct? That's a nice edge to have over other blockbusters this year that did not have China. But, either way, if A2 follows the pattern of other blockbusters this year, including JW3, it'll do well... Very well even. It'll be the #2 DOM (500M~) and and #1 WW(1.5M~) but also still be a number that many expected was the low end a few weeks ago.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

His actual quote was somehting like 'we wont have a real idea where the film is heading until the 3rd and 4th weekends', which is fair.

 

Thats not what people are saying in here.

It will not take until weekend four to know how this is going legs wise. Even Greatest Showman which is maybe the most insane box office success story when it comes from turning a flop OW into a success through legs was clear something was happening by weekend 2 which was over New Years.

[JustLurking]

Realistically speaking, I think most people have already noticed this isn't going super well, and if it was going to pop off massive it probably would have done so already. The most telling days are going to be the weekdays after christmas weekend but it's already fairly clear off trend that the chances of topping TGM dom is fairly low.

 

 

[Eastwood47]

8 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

I'm saying it'll do worse in Christmas weekend so more doom posting.

 

What I'm interested is whatever happens from New Year weekend. Hoping for CameronBall to start rolling from thereon.

In the grand scheme of things, I think history will look back on this film and ask the question why it's director/creator chose to make so much press over a dollar amount the film needed to break even. That's a very odd position to make public prior to a film's release, especially in today's social media environment where the direction of the wind can be a polarizing topic. 

I don't know if its simple arrogance, or perhaps a public position he's taking now to make more expensive films later. One can only assume he feels incredibly confident his film will easily overcome this "high risk" narrative he's established . Whatever the reason, that singular statement certainly inflated expectations and changed how the industry is reporting on it's progress. 

When the final chapter is written on this film, I've got to think Cameron would like to take back that statement, so this film could have garnered it's own narrative without being hampered or overshadowed by grand proclamations from its creator. Great films often speak for themselves. I'm not sure this movie will ever get that opportunity and that's unfortunate. 

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Eh, I think the final shopping day/Xmas Eve/Xmas Day (weaker post-pandemic) plus massive winter storm weekend has a chance to be deceptively low and not necessarily indicative of future potential 

 

Should have a much better idea after seeing the boost for the post-Christmas weekdays, narrow the range a good deal 

 

I feel like too much of a big deal is getting made of the winter storm, the same way i believe the storm when original Avatar opened didn't affect gross that much.

 

If it doesn't drop much better than Rogue One on its 2nd weekend (like around -45%) i feel like it is getting pretty ordinary legs.

[charlie Jatinder]

XMAS Tentpoles MON drop

 

-33.8% (21st DEC) - SW: TFA

-42.2% (20th) - SM: NWH (Quebec closed, actual drop 41.7%)

 

-53.3% (19th) - Rogue One

-54.8% (19th) - Avatar 2

 

-58% (18th) - SW: TLJ

 

Closer to XMAS hold are stronger, the first two also had big spillover demand. TLJ pretty bad drop considering it would have a lot of spillover like the first two, though it was farthest from XMAS among listed films.

 

Avatar 2 should have stayed on other side of 50, given it is skewing in PLF which hold better on weekdays and it is overindexing in Canada which has better weekdays hold than US.

 

e.g. NWH US drop was 42.2%, Canada drop was -35%.

[SpiderByte]

How this performs will be a strong sign of whether or not people are burned out on 3D

[Nero]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

He’s forgetting that Titanic and Avatar weren't sequels. 

Yes but he has only made 2 films in last 20+ years so he might not know how sequels perform.

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Eastwood47 said:

In the grand scheme of things, I think history will look back on this film and ask the question why it's director/creator chose to make so much press over a dollar amount the film needed to break even.

He didn't. It was just one random trivia fact on a convo he had with execs years ago, as a small part of a very long interview he didn't even actually mention an amount, press just extrapolated (and didn't even do it well as we can see) and ran with it because it worked well for clickbait

Edited December 20, 2022 by JustLurking

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It will not take until weekend four to know how this is going legs wise. Even Greatest Showman which is maybe the most insane box office success story when it comes from turning a flop OW into a success through legs was clear something was happening by weekend 2 which was over New Years.

Well the 4th weekend is the first 'normal' weekend after the OW. Christmas and New Years should both come under what the film would of done on a normal weekend.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well the 4th weekend is the first 'normal' weekend after the OW. Christmas and New Years should both come under what the film would of done on a normal weekend.

…No they don’t? And we know how to read those kinds of weekends from prior holiday weekends.

[Cap]

12 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Like... how does this even happen?

 

 

 

Do you want the real answer, that will probably make a bunch of people angry? Or do you want an easy answer. 
 

The easy answer is Tatum was very popular In his peak days. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Nero said:

Yes but he has only made 2 films in last 20+ years so he might not know how sequels perform.

He hasn't made a film in 13 years, so may be don't know how box office work nowdays  😛

[Nero]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

He hasn't made a film in 13 years, so may be don't know how box office work nowdays  😛

Yeah one of the reasons he talked about it in interview also that he doesn't know how the movie is going perform in post pandemic era

[Deep Wang]

17 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Like... how does this even happen?

 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Cap said:

Do you want the real answer, that will probably make a bunch of people angry? Or do you want an easy answer. 
 

The easy answer is Tatum was very popular In his peak days. 

 

Yes.  Tatum and Kunis are both hot.  Seems pretty simple to me!

[M37]

7 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Realistically speaking, I think most people have already noticed this isn't going super well, and if it was going to pop off massive it probably would have done so already. The most telling days are going to be the weekdays after christmas weekend but it's already fairly clear off trend that the chances of topping TGM dom is fairly low.

 

 

To put some numbers behind this, the first week is going to finish around $200M, probably behind TGM's $205.6M.  Which means it would have to leg out better than that incredible run to top it, and that Monday estimate doesn't indicate any sort of secondary/WOM wave building

 

And only two films in the last 2 years (opening to at least $30M) have managed to surpass 2.35x the first full week (TGM 3.49x and Elivs 3.13x). A standard run from here probably lands below $500M

[Stokes]

Hi

 

On one hand, Avatar i felt was a big letdown after 13 years of waiting. Doesn't hold a candle to the first movie except for the visuals. 

 

On the other, a poor Avatar sequel likely to end up doubling Wakanda Forever and topping the year should end any notion that Avatar had no cultural impact. We can now safely say that Avatar had far more of a cultural impact than more recent high impact movies like Black Panther without question.

 

Its a shame this didn't deliver as we could have been seeing a much larger opening and total

[JustLurking]

Just now, M37 said:

To put some numbers behind this, the first week is going to finish around $200M, probably behind TGM's $205.6M.  Which means it would have to leg out better than that incredible run to top it, and that Monday estimate doesn't indicate any sort of secondary/WOM wave building

 

And only two films in the last 2 years (opening to at least $30M) have managed to surpass 2.35x the first full week (TGM 3.49x and Elivs 3.13x). A standard run from here probably lands below $500M

Yea, am hoping for a finish mid 500s but wouldn't be shocked by high 400s.

 

More than anything, think it's been interesting to observe how wildly uneven the hold has been between different countries for the sequel of a film that performed fairly consistently over the world in its original run

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

Yes.  Tatum and Kunis are both hot.  Seems pretty simple to me!

According to Cameron, we are going to have actual lust for the Na’Vis and won’t be able to control ourselves. His words, not mine:

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by ZattMurdock

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, Elessar said:

I feel like too much of a big deal is getting made of the winter storm, the same way i believe the storm when original Avatar opened didn't affect gross that much.

 

A winter storm in the south is a huge problem as we aren't built for it.  

 

It's like California when it drizzles, we just don't know what to do!