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The Wild Eric

Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

By The Wild Eric, in Numbers and Data

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

If we're ranking James Cameron films, I just want to throw in my two cents and say that Titanic is genuinely one of the best films ever made. And I can't remember which critic it was that said it, but it is truly the Gone With the Wind of this generation.

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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

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Just now, stuart360 said:

Spidey has 2.1bil right?, i think A2 has a very realistic shot. I mean 550mil WW after 5 days. 4x WW legs would do it, which isnt exactly strange for Christmas time.

I’ve been wrong before, and while I couldn’t possibly imagine a scenario where No Way Home would gross $1.9B without China, I honestly don’t think A2 has a shot. 

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ThomasNicole Summer Tentpole

ThomasNicole

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4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Spidey has 2.1bil right?, i think A2 has a very realistic shot. I mean 550mil WW after 5 days. 4x WW legs would do it, which isnt exactly strange for Christmas time.

Spider have 1.9B 

 

Is very naive thinking A2 doesn't have a shot lol, especially with those amazing OS numbers 

 

The problem was domestic looking average, but seems like maybe it was just overreaction so yeah, it can surpass it, even if not easily as it could if China didn't suffer the covid chaos 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Big caveat though is that Avatar has had a much bigger Tuesday bump than those films which dropped on Tuesday.

So you're gonna make me do math? Fine. Here are MON to Wed changes for these same titles, also adding the DOM/OWeek ratio, which shows decent correlation

 

NWH (12/22/21) = -25.0% [2.09x] (Sing 2, Matrix, King's Man)

TLJ (12/20/17) = -21.6% [2.09x] (Jumanji WTJ, Greatest Showman)

RO (12/21/16) = -14.9% [2.40x] (Sing, Assassin's Creed, Passengers)

TFA (12/23/15) = -5.2% [2.40x] (no Wed openings)

 

A $16M Wed (-12.6 Tue, -1.6% Mon) would be a good signal on legs, but even matching the 2.4x (~$200M OWeek) would be below $500M. Going to need an outlier of ~3x just to get to $600M

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Not only that $18.3 is the best of the year. It is also 8% higher than Thursday preview, signaling the momentum is still going strong,  

Its also a signal of just how how much business is skewed towards earlier shows, away from later later times.  Adding in the 10A (or earlier) to 3PM times more than offset the Thursday rush, almost matched on Mon too

 

It's not a true family movie, but playing more like that (or even a senior heavy movie) in terms of daily patterns as compared to other tentpoles. TGM also made $15.8M on its first Tuesday compared to ~$15M on true Thursday

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