Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[Cheddar Please]

I'm personally bearish on OS and bullish on DOM for A2. I feel like 600m is still reasonably likely if it can continue to outpace RO in dallies given how awful RO's post holiday legs were, and even 700m is on the cards at this time given the uncertainty. On the other hand, it's still tracking about the same as NWH in OS dallies atm, and that movie had really good legs overseas on account of Omicron spacing out its grosses in several countries, so I don't see more than 1.1B overseas. Ultimately, I think you'll see this movie get much closer to JW numbers and DOM/OS split than people think

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Terminator, Terminator 2, and ALIENS are perfect movies.  Though I think ALIEN is better than ALIENS, ALIENS is perfect for what it is.  True Lies is a riot and one of the few good action comedies out there.  Titanic is a movie I respect more than I like.  I think there's a very clear pre and post-Titanic James Cameron.  After Titanic, its clear the man is only interested in making movies designed to appeal to as many people as possible at the box-office as vehicles to push the latest tech.  This is unfortunate and really ties him up creatively imo.

Alien is my favorite Alien film too. But I love Aliens to death.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Jatinder is a genius and arguably the best addition to the message board since Rth. With that said… I still don’t see it. $1.2B OS + $550m DOM (which I see as a best case scenario) + how much from China? Since it went below projections, how much should we expect from China now?

 

I don't understand what is happening right now overseas at all, I just don't get it and who makes what and all that and exchange rates and blooby-blooby blah-blah.

 

What I do know is that Spider-Man is a primarily a domestic sensation and Avatar is an international sensation.  

 

I personally can't see it with a DOM/OS ratio that low, I might turn out to be wrong, but the one area I will never bet against Cameron, is his appeal to foreign audiences.  

 

 

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

17 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Since it went below projections, how much should we expect from China now?

 

$130-160M

 

[ZattMurdock]

8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I don't understand what is happening right now overseas at all, I just don't get it and who makes what and all that and exchange rates and blooby-blooby blah-blah.

 

What I do know is that Spider-Man is a primarily a domestic sensation and Avatar is an international sensation.  

 

I personally can't see it with a DOM/OS ratio that low, I might turn out to be wrong, but the one area I will never bet against Cameron, is his appeal to foreign audiences.  

 

 

 

 

While it might be too soon and like you I find it incredibly hard to gauge OS numbers, here is what I think:

 

$470m-570m DOM

$114m-130m C

$1.2B (based on Jat)

 

Best case scenario of this would place at $1.9B. And while Cameron is indeed a beast OS, I don’t see it.

 

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

 

$130-160M

 

Funny how I multiplied from China’s Ow and you gave me a similar answer to where I was going lol. Not sure if it can make to $160m from a $57m opening, but we will see.

[Mulder]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Wed at theaters tracked is looking like 14.5m

If that pans out, that would be a really harsh and bad drop. Rogue One's Wednesday was a 14.9% decrease, that would be a 20.2%.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

Best case scenario

 

That's not best case scenario that's just your prediction 

 

Best case right now would be like....

 

$750M DOM

$175M China

$1400M OS-C

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If that pans out, that would be a really harsh and bad drop. Rogue One's Wednesday was a 14.9% decrease, that would be a 20.2%.

I prefer to look at Mon/Wed drop. Discount Tuesday messes with things.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[cooldude97]

i think you guys are kinda jumping to major conclusions just on a prediction based on info we have right now, we should have a much better idea by Monday 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

 

That's not best case scenario that's just your prediction 

 

Best case right now would be like....

 

$750M DOM

$175M China

$1400M OS-C

That goes without saying lol

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, cooldude97 said:

i think you guys are kinda jumping to major conclusions just on a prediction based on info we have right now, we should have a much better idea by Monday 

Mon isn’t enough, and I’d argue that not even the next two weekends. While we will have a better grasp after this weekend, it will interesting to see how it will behave after the holidays, both dom and os.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, cooldude97 said:

i think you guys are kinda jumping to major conclusions just on a prediction based on info we have right now, we should have a much better idea by Monday 

 

I mean, yea? That's what we do around here. This site would be boring (and essentially pointless) if we didn't debate, discuss and prognosticate based on the data we currently have available. 

[Mulder]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

I prefer to look at Mon/Wed drop. Discount Tuesday messes with things.

I'd say it's still pretty harsh, just not as harsh. 

[Verrows]

Going to take a stab at this:

 

Wednesday: $15.5M

Thursday: $17.1M

Friday: 23M

Saturday: $15.4M

Sunday: $25.4M

 

Weekend 2: $63.8M

10-day total: Roughly $265M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

 

I mean, yea? That's what we do around here. This site would be boring (and essentially pointless) if we didn't debate, discuss and prognosticate based on the data we currently have available. 

Like… please don’t be BOT, BOT

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, Verrows said:

Going to take a stab at this:

 

Wednesday: $15.5M

Thursday: $17.1M

Friday: 23M

Saturday: $15.4M

Sunday: $25.4M

 

Weekend 2: $63.8M

10-day total: Roughly $265M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Give me 14.9 - 16.5 - 21.8 - 14.4 - 23.3 

[Verrows]

4 minutes ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

 

Give me 14.9 - 16.5 - 21.8 - 14.4 - 23.3 

Reasonable as well. There's a possibility the Wednesday drop is a little steeper than Rogue One on account of the better Tuesday for Avatar. We'll see!

[cooldude97]

 

still no numbers, must be a super flop

[Mulder]

I'll place my cards down now and say I think we're going for a 500-600 million domestic run. If the legs over the next two weekends end up surprising, great I was wrong, but going by the general vibe online and the numbers so far it feels more like a Rogue One-type run then an Avatar-type run. While I was a pre-teen when Avatar came out, the vibe around it was entirely different then what's happened with this. Everyone was talking about it, it was everywhere. I'm just not seeing that for Way of Water. Yes its had good word of mouth but plenty of films get that and don't suddenly get the crazy runs you see for stuff like Avatar, Force Awakens, Black Panther etc. That takes a certain type of atmosphere and word of mouth. Hell I felt that to a lesser degree for Top Gun: Maverick this summer. I'm just not seeing it for Way of Water. Like I said, if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I'll gladly admit to it.