Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[Eric Atreides]

February 24

Cocaine Bear: For a while, I thought this would have done Snakes on a Plane numbers, which would ironically be pretty good in a post-COVID, attendance-shrunk box office landscape. But looking things over, memes are the biggest selling point for a film these days, especially ones aimed at 18-34 year olds like this one. And Universal’s done a great job getting the meme machine going on this film, as shown by the major boost in awareness from Quorum over the past couple weeks post-trailer drop. It won't get close to 100M, but it should do close to double SoaP numbers and be a surprise breakout by post-COVID standards. (heh...SoaP. That’s funny) 25/70 (2.8x)

 

Jesus Revolution: Seeing Kelsey Grammer in this crap crushed my soul. Never felt so embarrassed for an actor. I guess this could bring in the religious crowd, but even something like The Chosen wasn’t that big and this is way too far from Easter to get some holiday bump. But I guess it could still leg out fine and get church groups excited? Who knows? This could surprise us. 6/20 (3.33x)

[WrathOfHan]

February 3

 

Knock at the Cabin: Shyamalan has been on a box office streak even if he's still hit or miss on quality. Dave Bautista is (no pun intended) doing heavy lifting on the film's appeal, and the concept can bring enough people in on opening weekend. Legs will be unpredictable depending how the story lands on screen versus its source material and what else Shyamalan has up his sleeve. Being (presumably) the first non-Avatar PLF title will also help. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

80 for Brady: I mean... the four leads have to be somewhat of a draw for the olds, right? It probably won't be the most notable grosser, but anything over 10-15M would be a win in the current market. 5/20 (4x)

[WrathOfHan]

February 10

 

Magic Mike's Last Dance: Magic Mike returns after nearly eight years with an arguably larger base thanks to streaming on various platforms since Magic Mike XXL in 2015. The trailer already landed well when it debuted, and the finale factor adds to the appeal. Opening right before Valentines Day will also be a big boost not experienced by the first two films in the series, negating any impact the Super Bowl causes on opening weekend. The first eleven days will largely determine where it lands, but I'd expect a gross above XXL. 25/75 (3x)

[CJohn]

No way Cocaine Bear does 70M. I can buy something like 15/40 if reviews are good however, a similar result to Violent Night.

 

In other news, The Marvels is going well below 200M DOM total. You read it here first.

[XXR vs XXR]

Cocaine Bear is like a 12/30 type film.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

February 10

 

Magic Mike's Last Dance: Magic Mike returns after nearly eight years with an arguably larger base thanks to streaming on various platforms since Magic Mike XXL in 2015. The trailer already landed well when it debuted, and the finale factor adds to the appeal. Opening right before Valentines Day will also be a big boost not experienced by the first two films in the series, negating any impact the Super Bowl causes on opening weekend. The first eleven days will largely determine where it lands, but I'd expect a gross above XXL. 25/75 (3x)

Why is Superbowl so late again this year? That really screws the calendar. Knock on the Cabin will drop 65%+ on week 2 because of it.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, CJohn said:

In other news, The Marvels is going well below 200M DOM total. You read it here first.

 

I'll take that bet. 

[Eric Atreides]

This is why it's CONTROVERSIAL

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

I'll take that bet. 

I don't do bets. Too dangerous.

[WrathOfHan]

February 17

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: Phase 5 begins as superhero fatigue finally hits the MCU. Aside from NWH's nostalgic appeal and Wakanda Forever's relatively fine performance, Phase 4 saw four of the MCU's lowest rated films among audiences and critics alike, and Disney+ series are making it harder for casual fans to stay current on the franchise. Kang being the villain means nothing if you haven't watched Loki, and even if you have, why should an Ant-Man film pique your interest more than other MCU heroes? The first trailer doesn't rely on worldbuilding/teases as much as Multiverse of Madness' marketing did (which backfired once audiences saw the film), but there's not a hook to significantly expand Ant-Man and the Wasp's audience from 2018 in the MCU's current state. Even though it's the first blockbuster since December, legs will falter quickly against the March onslaught if reception falls in line with most of Phase 4. 85/105/230 (2.71x from 3 day/2.19x from 4 day)

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Why is Superbowl so late again this year? That really screws the calendar. Knock on the Cabin will drop 65%+ on week 2 because of it.

No clue. I literally thought it was Knock at the Cabin's weekend until recently. Presidents Day being the following weekend will lead to some fun holds.

[Eric Atreides]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Why is Superbowl so late again this year? That really screws the calendar. Knock on the Cabin will drop 65%+ on week 2 because of it.

I think this is a constant from the NFL from now on to have the second weekend of February be Super Bowl weekend. I don't know why, but this is just how the NFL rolls now.

[elcaballero]

10 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Why is Superbowl so late again this year? That really screws the calendar. Knock on the Cabin will drop 65%+ on week 2 because of it.

They extended the season by a week starting last year, so it will be the second Sunday of February moving forward.

Edited December 27, 2022 by elcaballero
What Eric said.

[WrathOfHan]

February 24

 

Cocaine Bear: As long as the film delivers on its premise and isn't grating to get through, there's no reason why this wouldn't be a solid midsize hit. Elizabeth Banks needs a good hit (and film) after Charlie's Angels horrendously flopped. Social marketing just can't peak too early. 30/90 (3x)

[CJohn]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

No clue. I literally thought it was Knock at the Cabin's weekend until recently. Presidents Day being the following weekend will lead to some fun holds.

 

11 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

I think this is a constant from the NFL from now on to have the second weekend of February be Super Bowl weekend. I don't know why, but this is just how the NFL rolls now.

 

10 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

They extended the season by a week starting last year, so it will be the second Sunday of February moving forward.

Looking at this year, this really screws everything. February usually had two big weekends for new releases, and because of that now there is just one good weekend. Anything which has males as their main target should simply move out of the first 2 weekends. Jackass and Moonfall both dropped like 70% this year and Knock on the Cabin will certainly suffer the same fate. 

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Why is Superbowl so late again this year? That really screws the calendar. Knock on the Cabin will drop 65%+ on week 2 because of it.

They added a week to the NFL schedule. The playoff schedule is exactly the same as in the past, just shifted back a week to accomodate the extra week in the regular season.

 

One interesting dynamic with the box office in this regard is that there is now one calendar configuration where super bowl weekend and Presisents' Day weekend are one and the same. That's the February 12-14 weekend when the super bowl (and Valentine's Day to boot) lands on the 14th and Presidents' Day on the 15th.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Verrows

[filmlover]

I look forward to people confusing 80 for Brady and Book Club 2 as being the same movie over the next few months on the basis of both being comedies about a group of four friends featuring Jane Fonda.

[Ethan Hunt]

Huh. I kinda was thinking Knock on the Cabin would do better than Old due to obviously not the height of the pandemic and I felt like Old built some solid good will for M Night.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

As far as revenue is concerned, regardless of my opinions on the movies themselves, 2023 is going to be a year of reckoning and rude awakening for Marvel. Much like 2017 was for Transformers on film. Franchise fatigue is going to hit next year's entries hard. Those of you hurling Apocalypse emotes at Eric right now are going to eat some serious crow when both Ant-Man 3 and The Marvels fail to reach even $500M worldwide and Guardians 3 ends up being the lowest grossing in the series.

[cookie]

I don’t know if Knock at the Cabin will have great legs if it ends like the book does. OW could be high teens/low twenties, though.

 

Magic Mike doing 30+ is absurd. Would be lucky to hit 20.

Edited December 27, 2022 by cookie