Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[charlie Jatinder]

Unless Quantumania has bad WOM, I think MCU fandom will deliver $100M weekend surely.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, cookie said:

I don’t know if Knock at the Cabin will have great legs if it ends like the book does. OW could be high teens/low twenties, though.

 

Magic Mike doing 30+ is absurd. Would be lucky to hit 20.

Tatum is clearly a draw though after leading/co-leading two hits this year and this is arguably his signature role (indeed, he's the only major player from the first two who returned for this). It won't do much better than XXL did when that movie already posted a big decline from the first and it's been nearly 8 years, but being the closest thing to a date flick this Valentine's Day should mean the grosses will be solid at least.

[YM!]

7 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

As far as revenue is concerned, regardless of my opinions on the movies themselves, 2023 is going to be a year of reckoning and rude awakening for Marvel. Much like 2017 was for Transformers on film. Franchise fatigue is going to hit next year's entries hard. Those of you hurling Apocalypse emotes at Eric right now are going to eat some serious crow when both Ant-Man 3 and The Marvels fail to reach even $500M worldwide and Guardians 3 ends up being the lowest grossing in the series.

Since this is coming from you, you jinxed these scenarios from not happening lol.

[CJohn]

I feel like Magic Mike XXL focused too much on the strip in the marketing, This one still has that, but it is definitely selling more the comedy/romance which should make it more appealing for a date night. I think it might increase slightly from XXL tbh.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Unless Quantumania has bad WOM, I think MCU fandom will deliver $100M weekend surely.

Agreed. Currently thinking 110-115/260-280

[YM!]

Quantumania seems right on the money of a 85-90m OW though, I think the fanbase will get it to 100m OW but I’m not feeling too much over 270m DOM. I do think Marvel fatigue is apparent mainly due to subpar reception, the shows and eventizing every movie makes them less special, but Marvels and Quantumania when using most of the Phase 4 OS ratios excluding Black Widow due to Disney+ shenanigans with a 230-245m gross, they get to 500m+ WW. Black Panther and Shang-Chi were the only exceptions and the former was always not going to do as well as overseas.

 

Magic Mike, I can see 100m+. With Tatum having a rebound with Dog and Lost City being big hits, especially with the prospects of Valentine’s Day being likely big and nostalgia for Magic Mike. I can see it being strong counterprogramming to Quantumania and Avatar. 

 

M3GAN, either of the situations seems very plausible but it should definitely have a nice run. 80 for Brady, I have no idea what to predict but I can see grannies having fun with it. Whether that means 20m or 50m domestic total.

Edited December 27, 2022 by YM!

[filmlover]

M3GAN and Cocaine Bear definitely feel like the big tests as to just how effective meme/viral marketing really is when it comes to actually selling tickets lol. Praise Universal for their commitment to making non-tentpoles resulting in some truly wacky concepts that are probably the result of all the best "original" ideas being used up after 100+ years of the existence of movies.

[MCKillswitch123]

If M3GAN and Cocaine Bear succeed, and in the wake of the Gentleminions thing, every studio will rush to get memey marketing campaigns that draw in the young people lol.

 

Which is a scary prospect for older-skewing films, but I guess it's a matter of time until studios find a way to market these films properly again and bring back adult audiences.

Edited December 27, 2022 by MCKillswitch123

[Mr Terrific]

MCU fatigue really hit in 2022. 
The 3, 4 and 8 domestic. 
A brutal rejection. Yeah. 

[elcaballero]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

M3GAN and Cocaine Bear definitely feel like the big tests as to just how effective meme/viral marketing really is when it comes to actually selling tickets lol. Praise Universal for their commitment to making non-tentpoles resulting in some truly wacky concepts that are probably the result of all the best "original" ideas being used up after 100+ years of the existence of movies.

I completely lost track of what's actually making a viral impact years ago. Are people still talking about M3GAN, or did that fade months ago? Personally in for Cocaine Bear though.

 

I can't believe 80 for Brady is a thing. Tom, you were supposed to be retired by now! No way the target demo actually goes to the theater for it.

 

[WittyUsername]

4 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

I completely lost track of what's actually making a viral impact years ago. Are people still talking about M3GAN, or did that fade months ago? Personally in for Cocaine Bear though.

 

I can't believe 80 for Brady is a thing. Tom, you were supposed to be retired by now! No way the target demo actually goes to the theater for it.

 

People still seem to be talking about M3gan. I can’t say I personally get the appeal of Cocaine Bear, though. It looks like it’s trying too hard, and it seems a little weird to take that approach for a movie that’s supposed to be inspired by true events. It seems like the kind of thing that was made under the mistaken assumption that Snakes on a Plane was a hit. 

[JWR]

I think M3gan has a better shot than people are giving it credit for. It looks weird enough to attract the horror crowd and it's not too violent that it will keep away the under 17 crowd. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by JWR

[TwoMisfits]

14 hours ago, CJohn said:

 

 

In other news, The Marvels is going well below 200M DOM total. You read it here first.

 

Do you have a club, b/c that's close enough to my thoughts I might join:)...

[filmlover]

34 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

I completely lost track of what's actually making a viral impact years ago. Are people still talking about M3GAN, or did that fade months ago? Personally in for Cocaine Bear though.

 

I can't believe 80 for Brady is a thing. Tom, you were supposed to be retired by now! No way the target demo actually goes to the theater for it.

 

The trailers for M3GAN always get a big reaction every time I see it at the movies.

[Eric Duncan]

March 3

Creed III: When the first trailer dropped, Quorum “Awareness” and “Interest” data went through the roof, and I can understand why. The trailer’s effective in selling the Jordan vs. Majors hook and Adonis Creed’s managed to become fairly iconic to a lot of people, especially folks my age, a la Rocky. Plus this was filmed in IMAX, which gives it a proper PLF boost that can juice up the numbers. Although the lack of Rocky will hurt the film when it comes to older fans, I’m actually thinking it could end up being the strongest performer despite the handicap, though it does depend on how strong reviews and reception is. But you know what? Let's go controversial. 43/122 (2.84x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 10

Scream 6: Coming at the peak of Omicron, the last Scream did about 82M. Accounting for the departure of Neve Campbell and the larger competition, I think that’s about where this will end up too. The New York City location does give this a fresh, new spin, and Jenna Ortega's now the hip new thing post-Wednesday, but I don’t know if it’s too much to compensate for its other issues. But these movies are cheap to make and likely perform well on VOD that these 80M grosses are good enough for more films. 32/85 (2.66x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 17

65: While I am optimistic on the other "meme movies" so far, this is the one that I don't have much faith in. This didn't really become all that big on social media and has the look and feel of a boring and crummy Sony genre feature. It's going to be tough for this to stand out with all the other big March movies out this year and I doubt reviews will be all that good. Sorry Adam and sorry Brainbug. 12/31 (2.58x)

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Like with Marvel, DC’s going to go through major declines as well. Superhero fatigue is real and streaming killed it. With Gunn and Safran rebooting everything, fandom morale for this and the other DC films this year is at a low, and Shazam feels like one of those hits that people saw and liked but didn’t have much staying power afterwards. Plus the ad campaign has been nonexistent, with the only footage we have been given being the same damn Comic-Con trailer back in July. It's baffling to me that they didn't put out a trailer for this for neither Black Adam nor Avatar to keep the hype and advertising going. It won't be Birds of Prey bad, but I'd be surprised if this reaches 100M. 33/95 (2.88x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 24

A Good Person: So it's some cheesy Zach Braff movie...yeah, this isn't going anywhere. 3/10 (3.33x)

 

John Wick: Chapter 4: I thought Parabellum would only slightly increase back in 2019...I was wrong. I thought Parabellum was the peak...but I think I'm wrong again. While not as huge an increase for obvious reasons, Chapter 4 promises some fun new cast members with both Skarsgard and Donnie Yen and the popularity of the franchise is still at an all-time high. Plus the direct competition is very light all throughout April (I know there's Dungeons and Dragons, but...well...), so this should still increase once again, though obviously not as much. 60/180 (3x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 31

Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: D&D is arguably the most popular it has ever been thanks to Critical Role, COVID, and Stranger Things. But Quorum data for this movie is very poor and this is coming in the midst of major competition from John Wick, with Mario also just one week later taking up all the PLFs. Plus like Shazam, the ad campaign is still stuck on the one trailer, which is just odd to me. March is just around the corner, doncha know? Unless this is a huge critical hit, which I kind of doubt, this will get lost in the shuffle big time. 25/67 (2.68x)

[filmlover]

Dungeons and Dragons reminds me of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ala an obvious bomb waiting to happen.