Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[BadOlCatSylvester]

15 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

March 17

65: While I am optimistic on the other "meme movies" so far, this is the one that I don't have much faith in. This didn't really become all that big on social media and has the look and feel of a boring and crummy Sony genre feature. It's going to be tough for this to stand out with all the other big March movies out this year and I doubt reviews will be all that good. Sorry Adam and sorry Brainbug. 12/31 (2.58x)

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Like with Marvel, DC’s going to go through major declines as well. Superhero fatigue is real and streaming killed it. With Gunn and Safran rebooting everything, fandom morale for this and the other DC films this year is at a low, and Shazam feels like one of those hits that people saw and liked but didn’t have much staying power afterwards. Plus the ad campaign has been nonexistent, with the only footage we have been given being the same damn Comic-Con trailer back in July. It's baffling to me that they didn't put out a trailer for this for neither Black Adam nor Avatar to keep the hype and advertising going. It won't be Birds of Prey bad, but I'd be surprised if this reaches 100M. 33/95 (2.88x)

It's not really all that baffling. All four DC movies next year are storytelling dead ends. They are lame ducks that won't lead anywhere. Audiences are smart enough to spot lame ducks, hence Dark Phoenix-which also came out against the backdrop of a reboot-catastrophically bombing. Why bother advertising it beyond the bare minimum? Spend as little as possible, recoup what you can, and move on.

[JWR]

8 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

It's not really all that baffling. All four DC movies next year are storytelling dead ends. They are lame ducks that won't lead anywhere. Audiences are smart enough to spot lame ducks, hence Dark Phoenix-which also came out against the backdrop of a reboot-catastrophically bombing. Why bother advertising it beyond the bare minimum? Spend as little as possible, recoup what you can, and move on.

 

Dark Phoenix failing had more to do with Apocalypse being a disappointment. 

[cookie]

2 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Dark Phoenix failing had more to do with Apocalypse being a disappointment. 

It wouldn't have uber-tanked if the Disney buyout didn't render the Foxverse completely moot. They sent it out to die.

[JWR]

19 minutes ago, cookie said:

It wouldn't have uber-tanked if the Disney buyout didn't render the Foxverse completely moot. They sent it out to die.

 

That definitely killed some momentum amongst fans. But I don't know if the general public knew about that or was thinking about it as much.

[WittyUsername]

44 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

It's not really all that baffling. All four DC movies next year are storytelling dead ends. They are lame ducks that won't lead anywhere. Audiences are smart enough to spot lame ducks, hence Dark Phoenix-which also came out against the backdrop of a reboot-catastrophically bombing. Why bother advertising it beyond the bare minimum? Spend as little as possible, recoup what you can, and move on.

WB is attaching the first trailer for The Flash to the Super Bowl. That’s not exactly something you’d do if you only intend to do the bare minimum of advertising. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Jake Gittes]

55 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

John Wick: Chapter 4: 3x

 

@MrPink let's go

 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Eric in Boots said:

33/95 (2.88x)

Shazam opened to $53M and Black Adam $67M but this one is only gonna hit $33M?

 

Ehhh…

[robertman2]

10 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Shazam opened to $53M and Black Adam $67M but this one is only gonna hit $33M?

 

Ehhh…

It does say controversial in the title lol

[DAJK]

Honestly, if Shazam 2 ends up being a mediocre/bad movie (aka Black Adam) I could see it hitting sun-100M. I’m confident it’ll be at least decent, so I wouldn’t personally go lower than 50/130 for now.

[poweranimals]

18 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly, if Shazam 2 ends up being a mediocre/bad movie (aka Black Adam) I could see it hitting sun-100M. I’m confident it’ll be at least decent, so I wouldn’t personally go lower than 50/130 for now.

I don't understand why it wouldn't at least do better than the last one.

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Like with Marvel, DC’s going to go through major declines as well. Superhero fatigue is real and streaming killed it. With Gunn and Safran rebooting everything, fandom morale for this and the other DC films this year is at a low, and Shazam feels like one of those hits that people saw and liked but didn’t have much staying power afterwards. Plus the ad campaign has been nonexistent, with the only footage we have been given being the same damn Comic-Con trailer back in July. It's baffling to me that they didn't put out a trailer for this for neither Black Adam nor Avatar to keep the hype and advertising going. It won't be Birds of Prey bad, but I'd be surprised if this reaches 100M. 33/95 (2.88x)

Ouch for Shazam if that happened. But I feel that that is a bit low, its basically what WB movies were doing during the pandemic in 2021 with day and date release. I think it will open higher that your prediction but will have shorter legs than what you gave it. 

[Verrows]

Loving your Creed 3 prediction, Eric! Personally really looking forward to that one.

 

Oh and I will be buying out theatres to get that 65 opening up. Yes, I'm shilling for 65. 

[WrathOfHan]

March 3

 

Creed III: Michael B. Jordan himself is a draw, and the trailer seems to have quashed any concerns about this being the first Rocky-verse movie without Stallone. That said, I'm a bit concerned how legs will fare between the long runtime and a crowded marketplace. This won't have a Thanksgiving launch like the first two, and Creed II in particular saw iffy frontloading from the 5 day, barely crossing a 2x. For now, I'll expect a slight increase like its predecessor saw. 50/125 (2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 10

 

Scream VI: If this increases from Scream 5, we can all thank our new scream queen Jenna Ortega. While I don't think the last Scream had a lasting impression on audiences this year, switching the setting to NYC provides enough of a hook for such a quickly produced sequel. Being the first horror film since Knock at the Cabin will also help its OW, and there won't be another genre release until The Pope's Exorcist in week 5. Like Creed, my biggest concern for Scream is its legs, especially since the last film opened in a much weaker, Omicron-depressed market. I'll go with an increase for OW but decrease in domestic total. 35/75 (2.14x)

 

Inside: Given Focus' track record with "wide" releases this year, I'm not expecting a big launch, but something similar to The Outfit's gross makes sense as long as the film is decent. If it goes wider than 2k theaters, double this prediction. 1.5/4.5 (3x)

Edited December 28, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

March 17

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Having been four years since the first film, the DCEU has drastically evolved and is on the way out. Shazam was a fine hit for its budget but not a film audiences latched onto en mass, both theatrically and at home. Honestly, this now reeks of the last Fox X-Men films since everyone knows Shazam is unlikely to survive the new DC regime. Even if the film has good WOM, the damage might be done already. On the bright side, it should be in most theaters until GOTG 3 is out in May, leading to (hopefully) good legs. 35/100 (2.86x)

 

65: This needs to move out of March. Hell, put it in April, just get it out of this weekend where it won't get any PLFs. A big dumb dino movie needs the large screens, and if the recent delay was due to unfinished VFX, just delay it further for safety. 8/20 (2.5x)

Edited December 28, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

March 24

 

John Wick: Chapter 4: While I'm getting sick of this trailer in theaters (even if it looks fun), audiences sure as hell aren't. This always gets fun, excited reactions from my crowds, and John Wick films continually increase by wide margins. This is *the* theatrical event of March if not the entire spring. It will handily become the highest grossing R rated movie since the pandemic and has a shot at finishing in the top ten of the year. Never doubt Mr. Wick. 90/250 (2.78x)

 

Champions: This probably should've released closer to Easter, but when Universal already has Mario that weekend, it makes sense the Focus title moves out of the way. I'm sure Middle America will gravitate towards Bobby Farrelly's first solo outing in the vein of Green Book, however small the gross ends up being. 4/12 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 31

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: I already got burned by Snake Eyes, so you best believe I'm treading the latest Hasbro adaptation lightly. The trailer looks fun but was released so long ago, and every quadrant already has a more appealing franchise to latch onto in the weekends surrounding it. With John Wick's second still a major presence, PLF space isn't event guaranteed for D&D. If Paramount keeps it here right between Wick and Mario, they're dumping it for good reason. 20/50 (2.5x)

 

 

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

March 24

 

John Wick: Chapter 4: While I'm getting sick of this trailer in theaters (even if it looks fun), audiences sure as hell aren't. This always gets fun, excited reactions from my crowds, and John Wick films continually increase by wide margins. This is *the* theatrical event of March if not the entire spring. It will handily become the highest grossing R rated movie since the pandemic and has a shot at finishing in the top ten of the year. Never doubt Mr. Wick. 90/250 (2.78x)

 

Champions: This probably should've released closer to Easter, but when Universal already has Mario that weekend, it makes sense the Focus title moves out of the way. I'm sure Middle America will gravitate towards Bobby Farrelly's first solo outing in the vein of Green Book, however small the gross ends up being. 4/12 (3x)

You really said go hard or go home and I respect that.

[DAJK]

That Wick number would be godly

[CJohn]

When Creed does like 70M DOM total people are gonna be really sad.