New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Gkalaitza]

When did we get each days actuals for last weekend?. Should we expect at least SAT to come up or will they release them all together midweek?

[kayumanggi]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Even better.

Its intrnational number next weekebd will 100% be over 100mil, possibly by quite a lot too.

 

Forgive me, but are there holidays in some markets next weekend for it to still make over $100 M or this is basically legs and the lack of competition?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

When did we get each days actuals for last weekend?. Should we expect at least SAT to come up or will they release them all together midweek?

Together on Tuesday afternoon.

[Andreas]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its almost hit 1bil International off a 181mil weekend (it will hit 1bil international with Mondays take).

To miss 1.4bil International would mean pretty terrible legs to be honest.

1.6bil International is probably the floor.

 

EDIT. Its International take is 961mil as of Sunday, not 803mil.

 

EDIT. 2. Oh you're not including China's gross for some reason. I dont see what getting to 1.4bil wihtout China has to do with anything. Does China not count or something?

Please go back to your initial response. I've said that $1.4B is locked thanks to China. You've responded with 'you mean regardless of China' -> that means believing that this movie can get to $1.4B without China.

[wildphantom]

Variety -

“Sources put “Avatar: The Way of Water’s” break-even point at roughly $1.4 billion, a figure it is on the precipice of passing.”

 

The narrative is about to change 

 

[Gkalaitza]

4 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

Together on Tuesday afternoon.

Thanks. Does the 21m SUN number line up with the early numbers today or still too early to tell?

[CaptNathanBrittles]

55 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

This is true but above 650M is literally ... a wall. Avatar 2 cant prossibly exceed that number, its mathematically not possible.

 

I don't think you understand what "mathematically not possible" means.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Thanks. Does the 21m SUN number line up with the early numbers today or still too early to tell?

Haven’t given it a look yet but will in a bit. 

[M37]

47 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

keep in mind the probability distribution here is skewed right

It's not really though, probably a bit skewed left, median around ~$610M (depending on how one does the math, since holidays make it a bit fuzzier).

 

With that said, there's good reason to expect - especially after the last week - a trajectory more like the upper end comps. But there's nothing from a pure probability standpoint that says we won't see weekly drops like RO or even TLJ from here on out. And we're probably all sub- or even consciously just crossing off a lot of the lower end, non-leggy titles, leaving those under consideration appear to have higher distribution

 

Getting to say $620M from here would still be an above average run post-holidays

[Alex SciChannel]

30 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Probably under i would think, but regradless what it ends with will still be a fantastic number and turnaround after those awful first few days.

Wouldn't it's breakeven point be 250M-280M since it has a similar bufmdget to Babylon and using the same 3.125x budget multiplier?

Edited January 1, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Please go back to your initial response. I've said that $1.4B is locked thanks to China. You've responded with 'you mean regardless of China' -> that means believing that this movie can get to $1.4B without China.

Well i do. I feel 1.6bil is the floor international, and China will finish around the 200mil mark.

 

And i was just saying that its gross would be a lot bigger with a none covid ravaged China gross. Thats why i couldnt understand the 'thanks to China' part.

Thats like me saying 'the film hit 2bil worldwide thanks to the US take', i mean what difference does it make?

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Hindsight is 20/20, but maybe scheduling the "wide release" around Thanksgiving was a mistake. Universal should've pushed it to later in December and snapped up the 23rd before Babylon or I Wanna Dance With Somebody got there. The Fabelmans' holiday run is a smaller scale version of the boost prestige movies used to get this time of year. Would it have been a bigger boost if it were newer and in more theaters (not 3,000 but maybe 1,800)? Possibly. I think the trailers were misleading, but if you're going to go with the "heartwarming" angle for a movie, mid-to-late December is the season for that... 

 

The Fabelmans was never going to be a blockbuster but it's certainly less polarizing than Babylon and over a half hour shorter.

They were likely looking to emulate Green Book with the Thanksgiving launch + Universal already had Puss in Boots on Christmas weekend. That said, I'm sure it (or something else) would've been pushed to Christmas if they had a hint that Whitney and Babylon would crash and burn as much as they ended up doing.

[chaos]

A break even point of 1,4B is insane + I don't really believe it, considering all the aftermarket revenues. But solely from BO, this could be true.

 

So its 100% sure, that we will see Film 3 (filmed, and post in progress) an at least 4, which should be absolutely epic according to observers of the script.

 

Still think, that Cameron will have 3 out of the 4 WW top BO Spots of all time in a few weeks.

 

 

 

[stuart360]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Forgive me, but are there holidays in some markets next weekend for it to still make over $100 M or this is basically legs and the lack of competition?

New years isnt as bloated as you think as the whole world gets a smaller NYE take like in the US.

So i would be very surprised if it dropped around the 45% take next weekend, which it would need to go under 100mil. Especially as its been grossing similar levels the first 3 weekends. That would be a pretty big drop for international,, even for a none holiday weekend.

 

Could be wrong of course, but i think the first film only dropped around 40% internationally on its 4th weekend. I'm not certain on that though.

[Alexdube]

58 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

While I won't say Avatwo is a "family movie" in the traditional sense of the term, but having a more casual/less fan rush audience and a loooong running time that skews sales to earlier showings, it may start to behave more like a family movie than the SW/MCU comps that kinda fit over the first ~12 days. Interestingly, it has tracked MUCH closer to Sing's 2016 post-xmas daily pattern than the rocket-like break from RO

 

Which is to say we may see a smaller NYD bump here, more in the 10-15% range (evening sales after 4/5p look kinda soft in some spot checking, even for PLF). One other nugget: though they get there via slightly different patterns, both +25% of RO and +40% of Sing - the gap over the last 3-4 days - would project out to another $57-$58M by Thursday [~$100M week / $458M total]

 

Avatar is 100% playing well for families, that's not even up to debate. And PiB is playing well for families with kids too young to see Avatar (that's from BO pro). But it's not just a family movie either, it's a four quadrant movie. So it's going to play a bit like a "family movie", but not entirely. And it's definitely not playing like mcu/sw, way ahead of you there.

 

Bottom line: it plays well in early showings but also later showing. And because of the long running time, NYE is definitely going to hurt it a lot. I correctly guessed 24+ for Friday but I didn't even try to guess for NYE, I just knew it was probably going to drop a lot. But I still expect a very good bump today.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Alexdube

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

I don't think you understand what "mathematically not possible" means.

 

Its what i call "emotional mathematics"

[Borobudur]

I realised NWH grew 50% on NY day last year from already big size NYE gross, how is that possible?

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I realised NWH grew 50% on NY day last year from already big size NYE gross, how is that possible?

Less hangovers basically. This NYE people are free to go out and party, it was a bit different last year.

Edited January 1, 2023 by stuart360

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

I realised NWH grew 50% on NY day last year from already big size NYE gross, how is that possible?

Because it was a SAT (i think) and probably there less options of things to do due to Covid. 

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I realised NWH grew 50% on NY day last year from already big size NYE gross, how is that possible?

Different calendar configuration with NYE on fri and NYD on sat.

Edited January 1, 2023 by JustLurking