Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[filmlover]

I have a feeling Blitz is gonna end up a 2024 release since Apple already has their hands full with Flower Moon (or do they? I don't know who is going to oversee its campaign since Paramount is releasing it theatrically and Apple gets it when it comes time for its streaming release), Napoleon (though we'll see if that ends up going anywhere), and Wolves (Jon Watts-directed thriller starring Clooney and Pitt that will likely to be ready by the end of the year). Also doubt they'll rush McQueen either.

[Ezen Baklattan]

...I'm just learning that Spielberg, Scorsese, AND...Todd Phillips are producers on Maestro.

 

Anyway, keeping my eye on Flint Strong (directed by Rachel Morrison, cinematographer of Black Panther and Mudbound, and written by Barry Jenkins) - production started before the pandemic and it may be coming out this year (Amazon/MGM distributing): https://www.essence.com/entertainment/ryan-destiny-flint-strong/

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

...I'm just learning that Spielberg, Scorsese, AND...Todd Phillips are producers on Maestro.

 

Anyway, keeping my eye on Flint Strong (directed by Rachel Morrison, cinematographer of Black Panther and Mudbound, and written by Barry Jenkins) - production started before the pandemic and it may be coming out this year (Amazon/MGM distributing): https://www.essence.com/entertainment/ryan-destiny-flint-strong/

BCoop is a producer on it too so there's a chance he could end up with another 4 nominations this year if maxes out his potential (bringing his total to 13 overall). 

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

...I'm just learning that Spielberg, Scorsese, AND...Todd Phillips are producers on Maestro.

 

Anyway, keeping my eye on Flint Strong (directed by Rachel Morrison, cinematographer of Black Panther and Mudbound, and written by Barry Jenkins) - production started before the pandemic and it may be coming out this year (Amazon/MGM distributing): https://www.essence.com/entertainment/ryan-destiny-flint-strong/

Lord...

 

So Scorsese could be a double nominee in Picture next year  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Producers only get nomination if they have the PGA credit so not all will receive it

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Producers only get nomination if they have the PGA credit so not all will receive it

IMDb doesn't list Todd Phillips or Emma Tillinger Koskoff anymore, so the final five is probably a matter of whether Spielberg or Kristie Macosko Krieger takes the Amblin spot.

[filmlover]

The obvious early contenders for the 10 nominees a year out IMO:

 

The Color Purple (adaptation of an acclaimed Broadway smash adapted from a book that previously produced an Oscar-nominated film with a cast loaded with talent, despite a largely unproven director)

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Saltburn (since it's Fennell's Oscar follow-up)

 

The only ones that immediately jump to mind since everything else is kind of "wait and see" territory. Wes Anderson's Asteroid City is likely to be a box office hit (by specialty standards) this summer due to the insanely starry cast selling tickets alone (arguably his most impressive ensemble to date), but hopefully it turns out less divisive than The French Dispatch was, since that likely wasn't going anywhere (though might have managed a tech nom) even if it had made its original pre-COVID Summer 2020 release.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

The obvious early contenders for the 10 nominees a year out IMO:

 

The Color Purple (adaptation of an acclaimed Broadway smash adapted from a book that previously produced an Oscar-nominated film with a cast loaded with talent, despite a largely unproven director)

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Saltburn (since it's Fennell's Oscar follow-up)

 

The only ones that immediately jump to mind since everything else is kind of "wait and see" territory. Wes Anderson's Asteroid City is likely to be a box office hit (by specialty standards) this summer due to the insanely starry cast selling tickets alone (arguably his most impressive ensemble to date), but hopefully it turns out less divisive than The French Dispatch was, since that likely wasn't going anywhere (though might have managed a tech nom) even if it had made its original pre-COVID Summer 2020 release.

It is very hard to believe there will be no non-English nominees, whether it is US-made or International Feature. Since Roma, every year we have at least a non-english film in the running for BP. Not exactly sure how prominent of Korean in Past Lives but I doubt it will be like Minari-level where it was like >80% was in non-English.     

[Joel M]

On 3/18/2023 at 7:54 PM, CoolioD1 said:

speaking of 2020 working on a theory that Mank = Fincher's Aviator (trying too hard with the bait) and The Killer = Fincher's The Departed (back to basics crime thriller that people want to see from him, no real Oscar aspirations but maybe if it rules hard enough?)

 

Sadly the only way this would be possible was if The Killer wasn't a Netflix film.  

[Cmasterclay]

As much as I hope that The Killer is a return to form for perhaps my favorite director, it seems a little bland on paper. But you never know!

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Would this apply to all the categories outside of docs/shorts/international films, or just Best Picture? Would a "To Leslie" or "Tell It Like a Woman" survive under these proposed changes?

 

In the article, they say some AMPAS members are pushing for an exclusive theatrical window with that 15-20 theater requirement, along with bans on four-walling and a required marketing spend, but there doesn't appear to broader support for those moves.

 

I think Netflix generally releases their top contenders in at least 15-20 markets already. This development would hurt the old-school model of saving expansion until January nominations, which was already falling off. Unless they grandfather in already-released 2023 movies, the earliest they could implement these changes is for the 97th Oscars.

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Would this apply to all the categories outside of docs/shorts/international films, or just Best Picture? Would a "To Leslie" or "Tell It Like a Woman" survive under these proposed changes?

 

In the article, they say some AMPAS members are pushing for an exclusive theatrical window with that 15-20 theater requirement, along with bans on four-walling and a required marketing spend, but there doesn't appear to broader support for those moves.

 

I think Netflix generally releases their top contenders in at least 15-20 markets already. This development would hurt the old-school model of saving expansion until January nominations, which was already falling off. Unless they grandfather in already-released 2023 movies, the earliest they could implement these changes is for the 97th Oscars.

 

They might as well make it a requirement to report box office at that point too. Would put extra pressure on Netflix, who still shielded the official numbers for the one week Glass Onion run despite playing in hundreds of theaters across the country.

[titanic2187]

Can we take Air seriously now? If it had a good box office run, the old-fashioned studio drama can certainly join in the conversation. 

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Can we take Air seriously now? If it had a good box office run, the old-fashioned studio drama can certainly join in the conversation. 

 

Specifically—if it had a good box office run.

 

And it may not need to perform *all that well,* but just simply be a minor hit to stay relevant in the Oscar race.

 

The Grand Budapest Hotel grossed $59M in 2014. That's about $75M domestic when adjusted for inflation.

 

Similarly, Everything Everywhere's gross was in the $50M range two months after its initial limited release; its lifetime domestic total currently stands at $76M.

 

So based on the box office of Oscar films with early release dates, I would want to see Air gross at least $70M before I seriously considered it as an awards player.

 

However, Grand Budapest and Everything Everywhere were more uniquely "indie" than Air is, and they were also up for more of the technical categories, while Air looks to be in contention for acting, screenwriting, and maybe picture (depending on competition). Is that package strong enough to sustain an early release? It was for Get Out (picture, director, actor and screenplay), though that was an even bigger hit with $176M domestic. I don't see Air scoring that big.

 

But if Air can get away with campaigning for a Comedy/Musical slot at the Globes, that will help the film find more visibility come awards season.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Hogar SLAM!

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

They might as well make it a requirement to report box office at that point too. Would put extra pressure on Netflix, who still shielded the official numbers for the one week Glass Onion run despite playing in hundreds of theaters across the country.

It's been an advantage to Netflix movies that they don't have to deal with "box office flop" narratives. OTOH their movies never get to be boosted in the race by box office success, which did help some 2022 movies in particular. Netflix movies can get high streaming numbers (Don't Look Up), but people dismiss their self-reported figures and don't really understand the Nielsen metrics (which come out a month late). Soft streaming numbers don't hurt a Netflix movie like poor box office, and there's usually some positive spin on them (#1 in a dozen territories).

 

A requirement to report the numbers might make Netflix put more effort into their theatrical releases...or cause them to move away from Oscar chasing altogether (TV is far more useful to their business model). They might change the sorts of movies they give the awards push, if there's suddenly pressure for Netflix movies not to fall on their faces in theaters. I think the creatives also wouldn't like the change much, because they go to Netflix partly so they don't have to worry about box office.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Can we take Air seriously now? If it had a good box office run, the old-fashioned studio drama can certainly join in the conversation. 

Jeff Sneider tweeted that Air could've beaten EEAAO if it had come out in December. This was after the Oscars, so essentially a "Here's how EEAAO could still lose Best Picture!" post even after it already won. The Academy traditionalists might be looking to "avenge" the most recent winner. We'll see.

 

What I really want to know is how an Air vs Maestro awards race would affect their Wordle group chat lol...

Edited March 31, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

It's been an advantage to Netflix movies that they don't have to deal with "box office flop" narratives.

 

 

Jeff Sneider tweeted that Air could've beaten EEAAO if it had come out in December. This was after the Oscars, so essentially a "Here's how EEAAO could still lose Best Picture!" post even after it already won. The Academy traditionalists might be looking to "avenge" the most recent winner. We'll see.

 

What I really want to know is how an Air vs Maestro awards race would affect their Wordle group chat lol...

But it is also the lack of BO run kill their chance or buzz in actually wining the BP. GB, Parasite and EEAAO gain or maintain their momentum through leggy BO run.

 

This is totally possible. In recent years , Oscar twist their turn in quiet a big way by choosing something adventurous like Moonlight, Parasite or EEAAO but on the other hand reward something else safe or old-fashioned baity films like Coda and GB.     

 

 

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

But it is also the lack of BO run kill their chance or buzz in actually wining the BP. GB, Parasite and EEAAO gain or maintain their momentum through leggy BO run.

Interesting to consider how their #1s would have fared with proper box office runs:

• Roma: doesn't make much but low expectations for a black-and-white period drama not in English. Still plays the critical darling of the season.
• The Irishman: All of Scorsese's later box office successes have had DiCaprio and that is a long runtime, appealing to older moviegoers. If it "flops" pre-Covid, does Netflix pivot to something else as their big push that year? Though Marriage Story probably isn't pulling big box office, either...
• Mank: theaters were barely open but it's not a crowdpleaser. Maybe The Trial of the Chicago 7 does slightly better? But I doubt it matters that year.
• The Power of the Dog: the stereotypical cold, critically acclaimed Netflix awards push, plays with a certain crowd but bombs in wide release. Tons of people watched Don't Look Up at home, but up against No Way Home... How many would've gone out and paid to see a climate change/Covid allegory in the mid-50s on Rotten Tomatoes? Maybe Leo's pull can counter that or maybe it flops in theaters (with no Marty editorial pleading its case).
• All Quiet on the Western Front: probably does well enough for a World War I movie in German, but it's nothing compared to Glass Onion in wide release. In an alternate universe, Glass Onion pulls $100+ million domestic and is a much stronger Oscar player overall. Maybe All Quiet still wins International Feature but maybe without the momentum as Netflix’s #1, something else wins? It did lose the Globe, after all...

 

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Jake Gittes]

With luck, The Irishman maybe makes Hugo/Gangs of New York money. The Power of the Dog makes The Favourite/There Will Be Blood money. 20m would have been a win for Roma (and Mank, if covid never happened). 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

• The Irishman: All of Scorsese's later box office successes have had DiCaprio and that is a long runtime, appealing to older moviegoers. If it "flops" pre-Covid, does Netflix pivot to something else as their big push that year? Though Marriage Story probably isn't pulling big box office, either...

 

 

I think Marriage Story makes similar numbers to Manchester by the Sea (another quiet but acclaimed character drama with some star power behind it) had it been a regular theatrical release.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

With luck, The Irishman maybe makes Hugo/Gangs of New York money. The Power of the Dog makes The Favourite/There Will Be Blood money. 20m would have been a win for Roma (and Mank, if covid never happened). 

Covid really damaged the awards bait box office, $40 million would have been a win for The Power of the Dog and more than King Richard (tennis movies have a dire box office track record), maybe Benedict wins Best Actor. Netflix movies having to deal with box office narratives would be a big game changer but their current strategy needs a shakeup.

 

I think only some of these Academy propsals will even happen.