Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[filmlover]

I have to laugh at them announcing this right before the impending strike drowns out any and all other industry-related news for a while.

 

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

I have to laugh at them announcing this right before the impending strike drowns out any and all other industry-related news for a while.

 

 

RIP Brutally Honest Ballots...

 

You may not share your voting decisions at any point. You may not discuss your voting preferences and other members’ voting preferences in a public forum. This includes comparing or ranking motion pictures, performances, or achievements in relation to voting. This also includes speaking with press anonymously.

 

There's an email hotline that even non-members can use to report suspected Oscar campaign violations. I'm sure there won't be misused or abused by anyone, especially not the stans of rival actors...

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

RIP Brutally Honest Ballots...

 

 

 

 

There's an email hotline that even non-members can use to report suspected Oscar campaign violations. I'm sure there won't be misused or abused by anyone, especially not the stans of rival actors...

 

Losing the Brutally Honest Oscar ballots is honestly no loss since they had only become more nasty and try hard in their obvious clickbait while remaining completely anonymous.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

 

Losing the Brutally Honest Oscar ballots is honestly no loss since they had only become more nasty and try hard in their obvious clickbait while remaining completely anonymous.

I mean, just because they're against the rules doesn't mean that people still won't participate in them. The outlets will just disguise who's participating a bit better, or make them up (which is already a suspicion about them anyway). They also do Anonymous Ballots for other shows like the SAG Awards, which has more voters and aren't under the Academy's rules. I would be surprised by a real change on that front. I think those stories are good reminder not to take the Oscars that seriously, if that's what some voters are really like.

[filmlover]

Cannes starts on Tuesday. The movies premiering to keep an eye out for and when:

 

5/18: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

5/20: Killers of the Flower Moon, May December

5/23: Asteroid City

5/27 (closing film): Elemental

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Zone of Interest should be one to watch

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Pre-Cannes update:

 

Barbie (WB)

The Color Purple (WB)

Dune 2 (WB)

The Holdovers (FOCUS)

Killers of Flower Moon (PARAMOUNT/APPLE)

Maestro (NETFLIX)

Oppenheimer (UNIVERSAL)

Past Lives (A24)

Saltburn (AMAZON)

The Zone of Interest (A24)

 

I think this is a strong mix of critical and audience and industry appealing films. I was previously low on Color Purple but it'll be one of the more diverse, populist contenders this year. Zone of Interest will probably breakout at Cannes. Past Lives will be the sleeper of the year. Holdovers and Maestro as the middlebrow prestige bait films of the year.

 

ALT:

Air (AMAZON)- can it hang on until December?

How Do You Live- can Miyazaki rally a sentimental narrative?

Next Goal Wins (SEARCHLIGHT)- with Poor Things having a poor release date, will this be Searchlight's top player?

 

Not feeling:

The Bikeriders

Ferrari

The Killer

Napoleon 

[Cmasterclay]

Zone Of Interest is blowing people's dicks off at Cannes. Seems like Glazer may have his first Oscar contender.

[Ezen Baklattan]

3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Zone Of Interest is blowing people's dicks off at Cannes. Seems like Glazer may have his first Oscar contender.

Definitely think it's taking at least one big award, if not the Palme.

[titanic2187]

Zone of Interest, distributed by A24, can be the German-language movie second year in a row to be nominated for BP at the Oscar. Since 2018, I have "gotten used" to the trend that every year we have some random non-English movie break into the race. Parasite, Minari, Drive My car, AQOTWF and now this is either by Past Lives and now Zone of interest.  

[filmlover]

Well, Flower Moon is obviously in. Not that anyone doubted it.

 

Also looks like a solid reception for May December (which no joke sounds Notes on a Scandal levels of classy camp classic) as well. Seems like it's a Portman/Moore contender at best (though I would laugh if Charles Melton ends up a nominee - finally the cast of Riverdale scoring an actual success story!) but ultimately depends on who picks it up, which we should find out soon - seems like something either Focus or Sony Classics would definitely have use for.

[JustLurking]

Zone of Interest reviews are insane. 99 MC over 15 reviews wtf.

[filmlover]

A24 will have their hands full this year between Past Lives and Zone of Interest. Curious as to which one ends up a bigger priority.

[Jake Gittes]

I know this is a hip new international diverse Academy but I'll believe in them going all in on a chilly uncompromising Jonathan Glazer movie when I see it. 

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

A24 will have their hands full this year between Past Lives and Zone of Interest. Curious as to which one ends up a bigger priority.

I will go with Zone of interest because of a lot of Oscar-friendlier subject matter and a more prestigious debut. Past lives give out some Decision to Leave vibe. 

[JustLurking]

On 5/21/2023 at 4:20 AM, filmlover said:

Well, Flower Moon is obviously in. Not that anyone doubted it.

 

Also looks like a solid reception for May December (which no joke sounds Notes on a Scandal levels of classy camp classic) as well. Seems like it's a Portman/Moore contender at best (though I would laugh if Charles Melton ends up a nominee - finally the cast of Riverdale scoring an actual success story!) but ultimately depends on who picks it up, which we should find out soon - seems like something either Focus or Sony Classics would definitely have use for.

 

Edited May 23, 2023 by JustLurking

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

On 5/23/2023 at 5:09 AM, JustLurking said:

 

Apparently it's only the North American rights? But you wonder how much faith Netflix has in their awards roster when they acquire other movies...

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Apparently it's only the North American rights? But you wonder how much faith Netflix has in their awards roster when they acquire other movies...

To be fair, this sounds like an acting play for the most part and Netflix has managed to get more than one acting nominee in a single category in the past.

[titanic2187]

Anatomy of a Fall, a French-German language film won the biggest prize at Cannes. Neon has the distribution right of the film in USA. This is Neon's fourth Palme d'Or after Parasite, Titane and Triangle of Sadness.  Now I begin to wonder Neon's unusual influence over Cannes. 

 

 

Palme d’Or
Anatomy of a Fall, dir: Justine Triet

Grand Prize
The Zone of Interest, dir: Jonathan Glazer

Best Director
Tranh Anh Hung, The Pot-au-Feu

Jury Prize
Fallen Leaves, dir: Aki Kaurismaki

Best Screenplay
Yuji Sakamato, Monster

Best Actress
Merve Dizdar, About Dry Grasses

Best Actor
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Camera d’Or
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell, dir: Thien An Pham

Short Film Palme d’Or
27, dir: Flóra Anna Buda

Special Mention:
Far, dir: Gunnur Martinsdottir Schluter

Edited May 27, 2023 by titanic2187

[CoolioD1]

32 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

  Now I begin to wonder Neon's unusual influence over Cannes. 

 

 

Don't think it's any conspiracy when 80% of their library is foreign acquisitions, when most major indie studios don't release that much. Even A24 only have like 5 foreign language releases in their whole catalogue. And NEON bought the rights to the last couple palme winners after they had already premiered to strong reviews so just luck of the draw there.

 

anyway don't know much about the filmmaker who won. reading reviews, it seems the lead actress part is very showy, and she's also the main actress in Zone of Interest.