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Best Picture Predictions: 2023

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Anatomy of a Fall winning the Palme certainly puts it in the conversation for Picture, though I'm unsure if that will happen. Feels like the Academy is going to lead towards Glazer and The Zone of Interest which I'm confident will get a Picture nomination at this point, it feels too obvious.

 

It's worth considering though that out of the 3 prior films to win the Palme with NEON at the helm, 2/3 of them were nominated for Best Picture and one of them won. Never discount them.

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On 6/1/2023 at 1:46 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Post Cannes:

 

1. Past Lives

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Dune 2

4. Barbie

5. Oppenheimer

6. The Zone of Interest

7. The Holdovers

8. The Color Purple

9. Saltburn

10. Anatomy of a Fall

Can I understand why Barbie is in the mix? Is that purely because of Greta Gerwig? 

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4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Can I understand why Barbie is in the mix? Is that purely because of Greta Gerwig? 

Was thinking the same thing. All the smart prognosticators here, Nash and Han and Clay, are all on board with Barbie getting a Best Picture nomination, and like...am I going crazy here? Are we really doing this after Lego Movie whiffed Best Animated Feature all these years ago?

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LEGO Movie illogical comparison. was not nominated because of specific gripes within the animation branch. won BAFTA and PGA it would've won the Oscar among the rest of the voting body if that branch didn't snub it. also don't think comparisons for what the academy did a decade ago work for right now.

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Barbie is on my "wait and see" list despite all the talent both in front and behind the camera because it's definitely one of those movies that needs absolutely everything (reviews, box office, sustaining momentum for the rest of the year when awards season and all the more serious-minded contenders start to really surface) to go right in order to become an actual contender and can't afford in any way having a "disappointment" label attached to it (which I already feel like the door has been opened for due to the internet - not the studio - manufactured hype that has been bestowed upon it). But those aside, it also has the hurdle of being, at best, third priority for WB (behind Dune 2 and The Color Purple) given the summer release. Crazier things have happened, but for now, I'm going with tech + Golden Globe Comedy contender at most.

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I also was lol what oscar buzz for Barbie last summer when the set photos were going viral but as we nearing the release I guess I can see it. If like @filmlover said absolutely everything go right for it (reviews, boxoffice, staying power in the zeitgeist).

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Barbie has to hit everything right to get nominated. Currently I'm thinking it probably does, but it could easily not. It's a weird year - Killers is the only thing I feel any degree of confidence in as of June 1st. Though my rare kernels of inside info tell me to be high on Saltburn, if not as a winner certainly as a big time critical darling that could be this year's Banshees nom wise. 

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People have seen the movie and know its combo of zeitgeist, social commentary and populism makes it an easy and broadly digestible contender. It's already destined to gobble up many technicals and will cruise through a lot of the guilds. Greta Gerwig is one of the only mainstream directors with highbrow appeal as well as middlebrow

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Predictions as of June, already prepared for most of these to be wrong lmfao:

 

BEST PICTURE

Bob Marley: One Love

The Color Purple

Dune: Part Two

How Do You Live

Killers of the Flower Moon

May December

Oppenheimer

The Holdovers

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest

 

I think there's a real case where A24 prioritizes ZOI and lets Past Lives peak too early (as was the case with The Farewell), while Barbie is too much of a "I'll believe it when I see it" for reasons people have already mentioned in this thread, I'm a little bullish on including HDYL (especially when The Wind Rises got hyped as Miyazaki's final film potentially, only to get one nomination and lose to Frozen) but I think there's a "okay for REAL this time" element and GKIDS could well go big with promoting it.

 

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  • Expanded theatrical run of seven days, consecutive or non-consecutive, in 10 of the top 50 U.S. markets, no later than 45 days after the initial release in 2024.
  • For late-in-the-year films with expansions after Jan. 10, 2025, distributors must submit release plans to the Academy for verification.
  • Release plans for late-in-the-year films must include a planned expanded theatrical run, as described above, to be completed no later than Jan. 24, 2025.
  • Non-U.S. territory releases can count towards two of the 10 markets.
  • Qualifying non-U.S. markets include the top 15 international theatrical markets plus the home territory for the film.

 

These rules are only for Best Picture, so the obscure minimum releases for acting-only plays and Diane Warren song vehicles will be unaffected.

 

 

 

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I'd say I'm expecting them to include "must report box office" as one of the rules these days to even further go after the streamers like Netflix (who have completely avoided a major theatrical footprint this whole time aside from the one week Glass Onion run) and Apple (although they are now in the theater business with these deals they have for some of their bigger titles to have exclusive runs before streaming) since it's only for Best Picture, but Netflix has been doing just fine in terms of nominations even if it hasn't really translated to winning the top prize so far.

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New predictions:

 

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Dune: Part Two

4. The Holdovers

5. Saltburn

6. The Killer

7. The Zone of Interest

8. Poor Things

9. Past Lives

10. Anatomy of a Fall

 

Director:

 

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

4. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

5. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

 

Actor:

 

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

2. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Michael Fassbender, The Killer

 

Actress:

 

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things

2. Natalie Portman, May December

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

4. Greta Lee, Past Lives

5. Zendaya, Challengers

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

3. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

4. Jacob Elordi, Saltburn

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

3. Julianne Moore, May December

4. Tilda Swinton, The Killer

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Holdovers

2. Saltburn

3. Past Lives

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. Asteroid City

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Oppenheimer

3. The Zone of Interest

4. Dune: Part Two

5. The Killer

 

 

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Quickie little bored BP predictions on a hot Saturday afternoon

 

1. The Holdovers

2. Saltburn

3. The Color Purple

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Oppenheimer

6. Barbie

7. The Zone of Interest

8. Next Goal Wins

9. How Do You Live?

10. Dune 2

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