M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well i was thinking 33-34mil for the 3 day, so yes lol.

I wouldnt be surprised if the 4 day is a flat 45mil from this weekend.

 

After this phenomenal Saturday hold, i do think that this could very well happen.

 

I also think Megan could have a sublime drop next weekend (30% range) and Puss in Boots could pull another 10M+ over the 4-Days. The market is barren besides those three, the new releases look not very promising and all 3 have very good to amazing WOM.

[oenri]

Avatar 2 has grossed much more than Top Gun in the same date so far, outgrossed it this wekeend without any holiday and it will by far outgross it next weekend because of holidays. I would like to know the math that some people are using to predict A2 to gross less than Top Gun imo

Edited January 9, 2023 by oenri

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

listen to this man, he's won two weekends in a row

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks bud but i dont think i will win this weekend as i had 48.3mil. Unless soemthing has happened over the last 2 or 3 hours i have been away.

 

For next weekend, those arent my final predictions, but i'll be very surprised if the 3 day isnt over 30mil, and i also wont be surprised if the 4 day is around 43-45mil.

 

 

[Elessar]

16 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

14.5 if the ratio is the same as yesterday.

 

 

Guys, we have learned 14.5 is a fake number that gets thrown around a lot.

 

[YM!]

35 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

 

A page from the Illumination playbook. Not surprised that they're gradually taking on the traits of their corporate sister studio.

TBF it’s outsourcing. The modern budget with the exception of the Disney and Pixar joints are 80-120m. Most animation studios have their animation done overseas either by hiring some other VFX company like Paramount Animation or Warner Animation Group or their VFX studio is overseas like Illumination in France or Sony Pictures Animation in Canada. Dreamworks though is stationed in Glendale but in the heyday used it’s Glendale base or Pacific Data Images company or China for their films.

[GOGODanca]

XXR says 14.5

 

Two posters come into spoil the fun

 

 Charlie says 14 at end of night

 

Actuals come out at 14.3

 

[stuart360]

The run wont be complete until it hits 14.5mil for one of its days.

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

 

hes been converted 

Edited January 9, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[stuart360]

Oh wait, Sundays is being predicted at 14-14.5 now?, nice one.

So possible 47+mil final weekend. Crazy.

Edited January 9, 2023 by stuart360

[GOGODanca]

2026 if everything goes right, disney could have $5b + from just 2 movies 

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

hes been converted 

 

He's thrown in the towel.

 

[stuart360]

I get the people who are saying A3 will drop from A2, like most sequels usually do, BUT A3 having a full proper China gross, hopefully a better exchange rate, and being a further 2 years away from the pandemic with hopefully cinema going getting very close to pre-pandemic levels, i still expect A3 to outgross A2 (assuming its a good film).

[Sophia Jane]

Now I think there 50% chance beating TGM

[danziger]

9 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

 

hes been converted 

 

Between this and self-described "Avatar hater for over a decade" Grace Randolph voting Avatar 2 for Best Picture, let's just hope reality itself isn't breaking down.

[danziger]

 

[Gopher]

IF this weekend lands at 46.535m (where the Friday/Saturday estimates are unchanged but the Sunday lands at 14.5)...

 

Avatar (2009) had from its fourth weekend a 7.35x multiplier to its final domestic tally (before any rereleases or re-expansions). If Way of Water could happen to pull the same thing off, it would end at 813.5m domestic. That seems extraordinarily high, but worth pointing out that Way of Water has now had two consecutive frames of fairly similar holds to the original (-31% this weekend, compared to Avatar's -27%). 

 

No Way Home had from its fourth weekend a 5.19x multiplier from its pre-re-release final domestic tally. That would take Way of Water to 713 million. Considering how much better Way of Water held in its fourth weekend-- and how similarly barren the marketplace appears to be over the next few weeks-- I think if this isn't the floor, this is a reasonably conservative estimate for a final domestic total.

 

Just for reference: Top Gun Maverick had a 5.64x multiplier from its fourth (and Father's Day inflated) weekend, a testament to the power of summer weekdays.

 

 

[Royce]

On 1/8/2023 at 3:04 PM, MovieMan89 said:

WW?!? It’s more likely to clear 600 DOM then miss that WW lol. All signs are there for huge huge breakout. The TLDR being that Mario is a massive pop culture icon around the world, has a really great release slot for minimal competition for a solid month, reception for what’s been shown so far is through the roof among fans, and Illumination knows how to appeal en masse to kids. 

Yeah I think it's possible.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Royce

[grey ghost]

16 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

 

 

How much did Disney buy Fox for?

[MikeQ]

14 minutes ago, oenri said:

Avatar 2 has grossed much more than Top Gun in the same date so far, outgrossed it this wekeend without any holiday and it will by far outgross it next weekend because of holidays. I would like to know the math that some people are using to predict A2 to gross less than Top Gun imo

 

Confidently predicting that a film will outdo "X" film because it has matched or somewhat exceeded "X" film's current weekend and therefore will outdo it from this point in the run onwards, is not possible when:

 

1. "X" film had exceptional late legs of its own.

 

Check out TGM's late legs - they are really sexy: 

 

 

That's 20% drops or better for 8 weekends in a row.

 

2. And it opened in the summer, benefiting from strong summer weekdays (with kids out of school and many folks off work).

 

Way of Water will, naturally, lose ground during the weekdays (starting tomorrow, in fact). That's not a slight against Way of Water - but a natural occurrence due to the different times of year and advantages of opening during the summer. There is a reason why the list of biggest box office months ever are predominated by June and July:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_grossing_month/?by_occasion=all&ref_=bo_csm_ac

 

Studios love to lap up those summer weekdays.

 

Therefore, it's not a foregone conclusion that Way of Water can match TGM's domestic gross. It certainly can, and its prospects are looking better with the exceptionally strong hold this weekend. But for the reasons above, its too simplistic to say, "it has matched/exceeded this weekend and therefore it will go on to exceed its total gross".

 

Not trying to be a Grumpy Gus - just put things in perspective.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Sampath Kumar]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Impressive isn't the word you are looking for. It's BIGGER.

Endgame BO is BIGGER than A1 and A2.

Demon Slayer box office run in Japan is more impressive than A1 and EG.

Can we include Baahubali 2 Performance from India also