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Plane Derby | Week 2

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11 minutes ago, M37 said:

I cannot express how much I detest trying to predict these low grossing titles

Top 3 for the week looks like top 3 for violent night. The other 9 movies barely matter, only the one that nobody gives a shit about 😅

 

FTR I did advocate for dropping it for house party 👀

 

Anyway we’ll have weighted scoring on the sheet but otherwise just gonn have to wait til march-ish

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4 hours ago, Legion in Boots said:

Congrats to @TalismanRing with the 80k for VN, may add another 100% to your lifetime stats :hahaha:

 

I may have overshot with the 80k.  :lol:

 

These low grossers are killers.  Worse may be the freaking Whale which never has theater counts or even dailies. I haven't been close one damn week until this week.

Edited by TalismanRing
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19 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I may have overshot with the 80k.  :lol:

 

These low grossers are killers.  Worse may be the freaking Whale which never has theater counts or even dailies. I haven't been close one damn week until this week.

$70K Sunday estimate for Violent Night

 

Standings w/ Sunday estimates:

iJulcaD.png

 

Without Violent Night:

Djw6VFe.png

 

(Also @katnisscinnaplex edges into top spot if you take out Babylon too)

23 hours ago, M37 said:

I cannot express how much I detest trying to predict these low grossing titles

 

Sad Lilo And Stitch GIF

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9 minutes ago, M37 said:

$70K Sunday estimate for Violent Night

 

Standings w/ Sunday estimates:

iJulcaD.png

 

Without Violent Night:

Djw6VFe.png

 

(Also @katnisscinnaplex edges into top spot if you take out Babylon too)

 

Sad Lilo And Stitch GIF

 


I knew I should have kept it at 70k,  I was going to split the difference with 75k until I realized it was so low I ran out of decimal places. :lol:

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 


I knew I should have kept it at 70k,  I was going to split the difference with 75k until I realized it was so low I ran out of decimal places. :lol:

 

 

How were you even in that ballpark? Was clear a massive drop was coming, but -90%???? Should have at least been able to match PTA from last week. Guessing it caught a fair amount of M3G spillover that didn’t repeat 

 

Also, we should absolutely switch to 3 digit decimals (and not just because I lost a week last year due to rounding)

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12 minutes ago, M37 said:

How were you even in that ballpark? Was clear a massive drop was coming, but -90%???? Should have at least been able to match PTA from last week. Guessing it caught a fair amount of M3G spillover that didn’t repeat 

 

Also, we should absolutely switch to 3 digit decimals (and not just because I lost a week last year due to rounding)

 

The recent PTA drops looked really bad.  Last week it lost 600 theaters and PTA dropped almost 60% and overall 67% while other films dropped in the 30s and Babylon dropped 46% with a much larger theater cut.  The dailies were so low I thought it would lose 30-40% especially since the Christmas Holiday gimmick was over.  OTOH I overestimated Babylon's drop.  I thought it would drop around 20% and instead it went up 23%

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Mostly the estimate function on the new site renders this obsolete for normal scoring, so let’s get some cube root weighting up in this bitch

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Ain’t no way I wanna do Women Talking 😂

 

I’d be okay on slime but it might be rough for a lot of people.

 

I think one more week of Whitney and keep whale — even though the nonreports and random expansions suck at least it’s been above 1M 

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2 hours ago, Legion in Boots said:

Ain’t no way I wanna do Women Talking 😂

 

I’d be okay on slime but it might be rough for a lot of people.

 

I think one more week of Whitney and keep whale — even though the nonreports and random expansions suck at least it’s been above 1M 

Agree on this: no Women, Keep Whitney & Whale.  Slime should be fine, so long as we have theater count. Don’t know enough about anime to gauge with more info 

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1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

M37 sexist confimed

As long as they’re not talking 😂

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After consultation with a council of key advisors, default weighting on player sheet set to ^.4. Looks like @M37 winning first weighted week by ~ a point over @TalismanRing. Will apply retroactively to all tracked weeks sometime over nest few days and note somewhere weeks that change winner.

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11 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

After consultation with a council of key advisors, default weighting on player sheet set to ^.4. Looks like @M37 winning first weighted week by ~ a point over @TalismanRing. Will apply retroactively to all tracked weeks sometime over nest few days and note somewhere weeks that change winner.

Let the record show I was in no way a part of the “council of key advisors” that came to this conclusion 

 

also remind me … what/how are we weighting by ^0.4? The gross of each title, then x score for prediction?

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20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Let the record show I was in no way a part of the “council of key advisors” that came to this conclusion 

 

also remind me … what/how are we weighting by ^0.4? The gross of each title, then x score for prediction?

Yeah essentially though normalized to 100% at the end. Other way to think about it is each move getting a weight of its gross^.4/sum(each wknd gross^.4)

 

This wk avatar’s gross^.4 is 4.02 and the sum across all movies is 20.19 so it gets 19.91 weight. VN’s gross goes to .35 (extremes outlier) so it gets weight of 1.71%. I think the sheet displays it pretty clearly/compactly atm

Edited by Legion in Boots
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