MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Disney is determined to milk 3D for whatever they can, and while I agree there was some resistance even for Avatwo, the overall performance does show the potential demand is perhaps more than some of us (myself included) expected

 

Expect AMWQ to get the BPWF treatment, one 3D IMAX show, plus a full screen in standard 3D, but I think lower baseline demand for this one makes it a little easier for people who aren't interested to sidestep rather than "settle" for those 3D showings

I mean, yeah, but the demand was there for A2. Conversions like Ant-Man's are what killed the format in the first place, not sure the demand is there for them even with A2 breathing a bit of life into the format, especially when they go and put a trailer in front it that impresses no one with its 3D usage

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

9 minutes ago, cookie said:

Wouldn't be surprised if Hanks had a salary in the eight figures. Sony did pay $60m for the rights to distribute it, so it's already in the black for the producers anyhow.

The budget for A Man Called Ove was $300,000. Obviously, a movie from a Hollywood studio starring Tom Hanks was going to be more expensive, but 166 times more expensive? Though to be fair, the "Covid tax" is real and in 2019, maybe Otto costs $35 million.

 

Incredible for Puss in Boots 2!

[grey ghost]

M3gan has already gotten a sequel greenlit.

 

I guess the ROI is looking good.

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I do wonder if pushing 3D for AM is even wise tbh, even for A2 there was some degree of resistance and the ant-man trailer looked completely unimpressive before it. No way I'd go 3D for it myself.

 

Avatar 2's 3D share so far has been consistently around 62%. Not as crazy as 80% like A1 but given the size of the box office, 62% probably means the biggest 3D event in a decade. Of course Disney would like to capitalize on this. But in fact, 3D is most likely to be Avatar-exclusive from now on.

Quote

Imax screens repped 14.3% of the sequel’s fifth weekend, PLFS repped close to 19% and 3D was responsible for over 62% of Avatar 2‘s weekend ticket sales. Imax alone counted $5.5M over the 4-day, for a $75.2M running total for the large-format exhibitor; their 3rd-highest title ever in US/Canada. 

 

[wildphantom]

2 hours ago, todos said:

The Disney lowballing both DOM & International feels at times incompetent or misleading & deliberate. 
Sunday & Monday estimates are very fishy. 

We have official China, Korea & India numbers that are nothing like what they are reporting.  
 

They’re probably too busy working out how they’re going to spin their Disney+ revenue on their quarterly results call in a couple of weeks. 

[grey ghost]

Pixar hasn't been tested really.

 

Their best movie of 2022 went straight to streaming. (Turning Red)

 

Now if Elementals flops then they might be in trouble. 

[MovieMan89]

Put me down for 33+ when actuals come out. Which is a strong  hold, though I was hoping it would pull more like 35. Meanwhile, OS continues to impress. If the Chinese market recovers this year, they should really do a full blown re-release there later and go for the WW crown. 

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

Avatar 2's 3D share so far has been consistently around 62%. Not as crazy as 80% like A1 but given the size of the box office, 62% probably means the biggest 3D event in a decade. Of course Disney would like to capitalize on this. But in fact, 3D is most likely to be Avatar-exclusive from now on.

 

Granted this is probably a share for gross and tickets should be a good bit lower, but yeah, I really don't know if they can convince audiences to go 3D outside of Avatar without starting to actually utilise it like Avatar does, I'm sure they'll see a bit of an uptick but probably nothing impressive unless they actually start using the tech

 

 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Pixar hasn't been tested really.

 

Their best movie of 2022 went straight to streaming. (Turning Red)

 

Now if Elementals flops then they might be in trouble. 

Elemental returns them to their classic “what if (inanimate object/concept) had feelings” success formula for the first time since IO, so it really should do well bc it should feel like a classic Pixar film to the GA in the marketing. If it doesn’t, Pixar is in big big trouble and Disney execs are to blame for it. 

[wildphantom]

I think Quantumania sells a decent amount of 3D tickets. That’s got 3D written all over it to me. Hell, it might even make the green screen look a bit better, who knows?

[stuart360]

Its crazy the way things change over time (either naturally, or forcefully by stuff like a pandemic).

I mean could you imagine 10 years ago saying 'i bet in another 10 years Pixar will be struggling to survive'.

People would of thought you were crazy.

[Elessar]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Put me down for 33+ when actuals come out.

 

Maybe 32m. I really don't see it dropping -10% on SUN, probably -20%, based on past MLK Sundays.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Elessar

[wildphantom]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Elemental returns them to their classic “what if (inanimate object/concept) had feelings” success formula for the first time since IO, so it really should do well bc it should feel like a classic Pixar film to the GA in the marketing. If it doesn’t, Pixar is in big big trouble and Disney execs are to blame for it. 

I think Iger will address this next month. They need a big push via the media that they’re focused on getting families coming to theaters for their animated films. 
 

11-12 weeks like BP2 is just so much better. 

[titanic2187]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Put me down for 33+ when actuals come out. Which is a strong  hold, though I was hoping it would pull more like 35. Meanwhile, OS continues to impress. If the Chinese market recovers this year, they should really do a full blown re-release there later and go for the WW crown. 

I am actually curious how Sunday will turns out. If Avatar 2 is so Saturday-intensive, wouldn't a Saturday-like Sunday this weekend make it gross a lot higher? Probably -15% drop from Saturday? Anyway, I hope Sunday add Avatar 2 for another $1m so that we can surpass aggregate gross of $100m for this MLK weekend. Now it is at $98.8m.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Maybe 32m. I really don't see it dropping -10% on SUN, probably -20%, based on past MLK Sundays.

I think Sat is a bit undershot too. 

[Felandria]

Dreamworks has got to be thrilled that Puss In Boots 2 is going to beat Lightyear domestically.

 

They've quietly had a good run in recent years.

[Firepower]

35 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Pixar hasn't been tested really.

 

Their best movie of 2022 went straight to streaming. (Turning Red)

 

Now if Elementals flops then they might be in trouble. 

What is Turning Red.

[MovieMan89]

Wow, just noticed PiB is actually ahead of Greatest Showman’s 4th weekend gross and hold after opening on the same weekends. Not saying it can keep playing like that, but worth noting TGS still had another $80m+ to add after MLK weekend. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

I would say PiB beating the first DOM is a near lock now and considering this was a decade later sequel that no one had asked for released when animation at the box office had been sentenced to die, that is absolutely an insane feat. 

[MovieMan89]

Better believe that Shrek revival is going to be the top priority at DWA now (or at least it sure should be).