MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[todos]

Box office Pro projections for once will be closer to final estimates: $35M/$43M.
 

And Deadline should just get out of the predicting business. They’ve been wrong EVERY single week since Dec 16. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by todos

[stephanos13]

5 minutes ago, todos said:

Box office Pro projections for once were closer to final estimates: $35M/$43M.
 

And Deadline should just get out of the predicting business. They’ve been wrong EVERY single week since Dec 16. 

 

I don't know if they used to forecast in the past but it's clear what they report is more studio projections rather than box office analyst projections.

[Alex SciChannel]

I swear if Puss has a big Sunday drop...

 

 

 

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

12m.

You love to see it.

[RascarCapat]

How much of an inflated monday can we expect ? 

 

Less than 50% drop ?

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, RascarCapat said:

How much of an inflated monday can we expect ? 

 

Less than 50% drop ?

8.5-9M Monday down 25%+ from Sunday. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by druv10

[Dragoncaine]

12m is fantastic, even if it doesn't quite hold, that's a really nice weekend for A2.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[Jiffy]

I think we are taking for granted a bit how impressive it is to still nab the 2nd biggest 5th weekend / become third film to have five weekends above $30m. TGM comes on hard next weekend, though. Probably if this stays above $20m next week that's a win.

[Grebacio]

This is the first weeknd since July 22 where all the top 5 movies grossed 10M+.
That weekend's Top 5 had 1 original movie (Nope), 1 book adaptation (Crawdads) and 3 sequels (Thor L&T, Top Gun M, and Minions: RoG), while this weekend had and 2 original movies (M3GAN, Plane) 1 book adaptation (Otto) and 2 sequels (Avatar :tWoW, Puss on Boots tLW)

[Mr Roark]

So doom and gloom before weekend, then it comes out way bigger than estimates.

What a surprise…

[todos]

Disney’s Sunday’s estimate could be Monday’s actual (-16 to 17%). 

Edited January 16, 2023 by todos

[stripe]

Avatwo from here, if it drops 30% each weekend until end of February.

23.1M / 16.2M / 11.3M / 7.9M / 5.5M / 3.9M

That would be 67-68M just for weekends.

Add 25M for all midweek days, and 10-15M for the rest of its run.

 

670-690M is the likely end.

AMQ or the SB in the second weekend of February could impact late legs, though.

[shachi86]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

Avatwo from here, if it drops 30% each weekend until end of February.

 

30% seems unlikely off of a 4-day weekend. It should be at least 40% drop next week.

[stripe]

22 minutes ago, shachi86 said:

 

30% seems unlikely off of a 4-day weekend. It should be at least 40% drop next week.

 

I was talking about 30% drop off of this 3day weekend gross, which seems to be about 32M. I know this Sunday is inflated, but next weekend there will not be new competition. I can easily see an scenario of 5.5M / 10.5M / 7M for Avatwo next weekend.
 

[corngrower87]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

Avatwo from here, if it drops 30% each weekend until end of February.

23.1M / 16.2M / 11.3M / 7.9M / 5.5M / 3.9M

That would be 67-68M just for weekends.

Add 25M for all midweek days, and 10-15M for the rest of its run.

 

670-690M is the likely end.

AMQ or the SB in the second weekend of February could impact late legs, though.

Don’t forget the loss of PLFs, which will start with Knock at the Cabin and Dolby, and then it will start losing IMAX screens with Titanic’s rerelease. As PLF heavy as this film has been playing, I can see the first weekend of February having a steeper drop and the second weekend of February having a huge drop. Especially with the Super Bowl that weekend as you said. 

[Deep Wang]

Honestly, as great as a run as Avatar is having, it just makes me remember things about the first one I forgot and it blows my mind.

 

Avatar 2 is having an estimated $31m fifth weekend which is just slightly below the first movies seventh weekend.  Actuals will push that above it, but still.  A $31m 7th weekend when it opened to just $77m is madness.  

 

Avatar went on to make another $154m or so before the SE release, if A2 makes another $154m from here it $716m(actuals + 154m is def closer to $718m lol).  Not sure how it pulls that off, but we shall see. 

 

 

[M37]

21 hours ago, M37 said:

Though I'm starting to wonder if the [NFL] effect on Avatwo specifically isn't as strong as with some other titles, that it might even be picking up some of that "minuscule" counter-programming audience, given its performance both last Monday (CFB Natty) and now Saturday vs playoffs

If we do indeed get a $12M Sunday, than it surely looks like the NFL playoffs are benefitting Avatwo, from a counter-programming perspective

 

Here are the sub 15% MLK Sunday drops since 2016

• Little Women (2020) = -9%
• Frozen II (2020) = -13%
• Paddington 2 (2018) = -14%
• Ferdinand (2018) = -14%

Yeah, there's some common demo threads there. Most years only get a couple of titles even below 20% on this Sunday, except for 2018, which I have to presume was weather impacted (softer Saturday pushing business into Sunday)

 

Fwiw, Little Women saw an only 17% decline into Monday, while the three animated films were all flat or UP on Monday (which probably isn't realistic in this case). Thinking -20% for Avatwo, as the running time will probably eat into potential gains for the evening hours

[CJohn]

55 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Honestly, as great as a run as Avatar is having, it just makes me remember things about the first one I forgot and it blows my mind.

 

Avatar 2 is having an estimated $31m fifth weekend which is just slightly below the first movies seventh weekend.  Actuals will push that above it, but still.  A $31m 7th weekend when it opened to just $77m is madness.  

 

Avatar went on to make another $154m or so before the SE release, if A2 makes another $154m from here it $716m(actuals + 154m is def closer to $718m lol).  Not sure how it pulls that off, but we shall see. 

 

 

Ridiculous run just not possible in today's world.

[teard1972]

personally I wouldn't compare any global BO run to Titanic and Avatar. Those are true once in a lifetime kinda occurrences. 

[Tokugennumataka]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Ridiculous run just not possible in today's world.

Makes me appreciate the legendary run of TGM even more. Especially considering the competition it faced