THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 787.0M overseas | 1362.0M worldwide

[charlie Jatinder]

Current markets should hit $550M, possibly $600M+.

Then there is Korea & Japan, that can be $50-150M. Totally no idea.

Middle East can be $10-25M.

 

$610-750M final OS

Edited April 8, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Mau]

hace 12 minutos charlie jatinder dijo:

Los mercados actuales deberían alcanzar los 550 millones de dólares, posiblemente más de 600 millones de dólares.

Luego están Corea y Japón, que pueden costar entre 50 y 150 millones de dólares. Totalmente ni idea.

Oriente Medio puede costar entre 10 y 25 millones de dólares.

 

SO final de $610-750 millones

¿Cuáles son las posibilidades de superar a frozen 2?

Edited April 8, 2023 by Mau

[Issac Newton]

Indonesia

 

Projection ~ $2M+ across 5-days OW

[nerves]

Mario is weak in East Asia

[Issac Newton]

South East Asia 

 

Singapore $560K in 2-days. Thailand $520K in 3-days. Vietnam $90K FRI.

 

Minions 2 broke records on Vietnam (i.e. 2.49M admits). 15K admits FRI. Thailand was weak for Minions 2. Singapore was SG$5.05M / 420K admits for Minions 2.

[Jiffy]

49 minutes ago, nerves said:

Mario is weak in East Asia

Too bad for it, will probably keep it from contending against Frozen numbers.

[KP1025]

Regarding East Asia, I think Japan could surprise still. Maybe not the $100+ million some are hoping for, but a total over DM3 for biggest Illumination film seems very possible. In USD, that would be a target of $56 million. 

[nerves]

9 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Too bad for it, will probably keep it from contending against Frozen numbers.

also Minions and DM3, I don't think $1B is locked for Mario😥 , the weak performance in Asian countries are keeping it from reaching that milestone 

Edited April 8, 2023 by nerves

[Starrow5722]

1 minute ago, nerves said:

also Minions and DM3, I don't think $1B is locked for Mario😥 , the weak performance in Asian countries keeping it from reaching that milestone 

Nah, it's a lock. The performance isn't that weak(with the exception of China).

[KP1025]

Just now, nerves said:

also Minions and DM3, I don't think $1B is locked for Mario😥 , the weak performance in Asian countries keeping it from reaching that milestone 

 

I don't see how it misses $1 billion WW. Unless its legs collapse, DOM will be higher than Minions 2 by probably at least $150-200 million. Final OS number should also be higher than Minions 2 or at least on par given the start.

[Issac Newton]

Japan

 

Mario OW is full of holidays ~ Golden Week (04/29 ~ 05/05) I am expecting at least $20M in 1st 10-days! A total over DM3 is very likely. 

 

The problem is the seating capacity that Mario might get due to Conan 2023 ($75M+ Movie) &Tokyo Revengers ($38M+ Movie)

[Issac Newton]

Taiwan

 

$1.06M | WED

  $130K | THU ~ -88%

  $201K | FRI   ~ +55%

 

$1.39M Total // FRI-SAT ~ +150% Forecast 

[Issac Newton]

Asia 

 

Keeping Japan &Korea out, There isn't any exceptional *good numbers* outside Opening Day. 

 

All Markets are doing below Minions 2 Numbers except Singapore which is THU Opener. I think Total in South East Asia (with the inclusive of China &SAR region) will be below Minions: The Rise Of Gnu. (Indonesia did $8M vs this one could do within $5M)

 

Hong Kong is also having poor hold similar to Taiwan &China. And I just realised that Mario Thailand OD was below Minions 2 which was already weak for a sequel to 2nd Highest Grossing Animated Film in Thailand. 

 

If Korea &Japan delivers a higher gross, I think it can be adjusted above Minions 2 but so far, I will called it weak across Asia 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Issac Newton

[DisposedData]

Yeah I really didn't expect Mario's weakest region to be Asia of all places. I figured it would be Europe or Latin America, but it's blowing up in those two.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Asia 

 

Keeping Japan &Korea out, There isn't any exceptional *good numbers* outside Opening Day. 

 

All Markets are doing below Minions 2 Numbers except Singapore which is THU Opener. I think Total in South East Asia (with the inclusive of China &SAR region) will be below Minions: The Rise Of Gnu. (Indonesia did $8M vs this one could do within $5M)

 

Hong Kong is also having poor hold similar to Taiwan &China. And I just realised that Mario Thailand OD was below Minions 2 which was already weak for a sequel to 2nd Highest Grossing Animated Film in Thailand. 

 

If Korea &Japan delivers a higher gross, I think it can be adjusted above Minions 2 but so far, I will called it weak across Asia 

SK will do poor imho. I think Japan will do better than Minions 2 but not by a crazy amount or anything.

[OceanBlvd]

I mean Mario games/Nintendo in general are popular/well known in Asia, so this is bizarre.

Edited April 10, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[MG10]

I'm really interested to see in how many markets the opening weekend of Mario will already be bigger than Detective Pikachu and Sonic 2 entire totals, who would have guessed that there would have been such a huge difference between them... 

[Issac Newton]

 

Spain

 

€1.47M FRI // €5.1M Total ~ (-6%)

[NamakFiskKa]

6 hours ago, DisposedData said:

Yeah I really didn't expect Mario's weakest region to be Asia of all places

There is no Nintendo brand in India but people and their parents do have fond memory of playing original super mario(its more or less pretty relevant video game to this day here) and that is pretty much the only thing when it comes to brand recognition.

I dont know if the case is similar with other south east markets tho I can definitely say that Pokemon is a  much bigger household name amongst all youngsters in asia but that did not help detective pikachu much.

Edited April 8, 2023 by NamakFiskKa

[Purple Minion]

Deadline: However, the bigger deal is that the movie is headed for a $368M Global start, making the Nintendo production the biggest animated opening of all-time, ahead of Frozen 2‘s $358M. We will have all the particulars soon as this must-see movie is minting $173M overseas.

 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Purple Minion