THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 787.0M overseas | 1362.0M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

I really expect this to be huge. I just don't know how huge.

Edited February 8 by kayumanggi

[xieh tie]

 

[thajdikt]

650-700M

[MG10]

My prediction is 300M in Usa/Canada, 300/400M Overseas and then 100M in China

 

In my market in particular (Italy) I can see it reaching 10M, two times more than Detective Pikachu

 

And does anyone know how much can we expect from Japan?

Edited February 23, 2023 by MG10

[JustLurking]

26 minutes ago, MG10 said:

My prediction is 300M in Usa/Canada, 300/400M Overseas and then 100M in China

 

In my market in particular (Italy) I can see it reaching 10M, two times more than Detective Pikachu

 

And does anyone know how much can we expect from Japan?

Japan is a hard market to read. There has never been a hollywood adaptation of a japanese property that became popular in Japan. Even generally well-received films like Sonic absolutely cratered in Japan. A realistic good target is something in the 3-5b range ( 22~37 on current ER), which puts it into the high end of illumination films. If you're feeling really, really bullish you could go for 10b I suppose, but I don't think many people that follow the market would follow you on that one. I certainly wouldn't, anyway. But like I said, Japan is a hard market to read. No one would've bet a penny on Frozen being as big as it was here. So if you're feeling it, go for it, I guess.

Edited February 23, 2023 by JustLurking

[MG10]

4 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Japan is a hard market to read. There has never been a hollywood adaptation of a japanese property that became popular in Japan. Even generally well-received films like Sonic absolutely cratered in Japan. A realistic good target is something in the 3-5b range ( 22~37 on current ER), which puts it into the high end of illumination films. If you're feeling really, really bullish you could go for 10b I suppose, but I don't think many people that follow the market would follow you on that one. I certainly wouldn't, anyway. But like I said, Japan is a hard market to read. No one would've bet a penny on Frozen being as big as it was here. So if you're feeling it, go for it, I guess.

 

Yeah I was thinking about a 5B yen (35/40M dollars) target even if it may be a bit too high, which would definitely be more than what Detective Pikachu did even though I'm not sure about its gross in yen

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, MG10 said:

 

Yeah I was thinking about a 5B yen (35/40M dollars) target even if it may be a bit too high, which would definitely be more than what Detective Pikachu did even though I'm not sure about its gross in yen

DP grossed about 3b yen.

[robertman2]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:28 AM, JustLurking said:

Japan is a hard market to read. There has never been a hollywood adaptation of a japanese property that became popular in Japan. Even generally well-received films like Sonic absolutely cratered in Japan. A realistic good target is something in the 3-5b range ( 22~37 on current ER), which puts it into the high end of illumination films. If you're feeling really, really bullish you could go for 10b I suppose, but I don't think many people that follow the market would follow you on that one. I certainly wouldn't, anyway. But like I said, Japan is a hard market to read. No one would've bet a penny on Frozen being as big as it was here. So if you're feeling it, go for it, I guess.

Sonic isn't the best example since the franchise isn't all that popular in Japan (at least not until Frontiers)

[JustLurking]

30 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Sonic isn't the best example since the franchise isn't all that popular in Japan (at least not until Frontiers)

There is no positive example to grab. A hollywood take on a japanese IP has never been popular in Japan. They all did between meh and straight up bomb.

[lor15]

Presales in Uruguay are BIG, opening week is holy week (school holidays) so expect big numbers from tuesday midnights to sunday

[WorkingonaName]

I could see this underperforming in my market (Aus) because Nintendo was never as big here outside of the wii and DS era. 

[Issac Newton]

Mainland China

 

Mario pre-sales has started some hours back 

[kayumanggi]

 

[thajdikt]

Deadline saying 100M OS but I´m thinking that 150M should be possible. We will see. The hype seems insane

Edited April 4, 2023 by thajdikt

[MG10]

On 2/23/2023 at 4:02 PM, MG10 said:

My prediction is 300M in Usa/Canada, 300/400M Overseas and then 100M in China

 

In my market in particular (Italy) I can see it reaching 10M, two times more than Detective Pikachu

 

And does anyone know how much can we expect from Japan?

 

Quoting my prediction from a month and a half ago, I think despite the so-so critics reviews it should still end up at more than 800M, in particular with 350/400M in North America, 400/450M in the rest of the world and 20/30M in China, which I previously overestimated by a lot

Edited April 8, 2023 by MG10

[kayumanggi]

 

[nerves]

Hoping for $20M+ in China for Mario 🤞

[kayumanggi]

 

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, nerves said:

Hoping for $20M+ in China for Mario 🤞

Maoyan Forecast updated to $19.9M

[keysersoze123]

56 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Maoyan Forecast updated to $19.9M

you are talking about OW right. with 4.8 OD and 9.4 Maoyan it should have a good run. 50m+ finish should happen right.