Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Easily would have done 20/120 with average reception. 15M on the OW is nothing. It was heading to 23M after many days of sales. 

I would very much argue against it heading to 23; we had seen a slowdown before it was even clear reception was gonna be on the bad side and peeps (remembering me, M37 and maybe shawn in particular) were pushing back against the narrative that it was going to go that high to begin with.

 

I think if well received it was going to hit 20, I'll give you that, but I don't think it would hit 23 unless it had like nutso reviews or something crazy happening in the end - people assumed it would have a big jump because of smaller start but that big jump was not really coming through at the end, even before reviews

Edited February 21, 2023 by JustLurking

[keysersoze123]

Edited February 21, 2023 by keysersoze123

[thajdikt]

The biggest boost The Marvels can get right now is GotG vol 3 nailing it and Secret Invasion being good. Also don´t know if this counts as a spoiler but just to be safe:

Spoiler

The movie will also be connected to the overall storyline of the saga so that might boost a bit

 

[MikeQ]

With Quantumania's opening, if I'm not mistaken, it is the 17th MCU film (of 31) to have opened to $100+ million. I understand that there are legitimate concerns to be had, re: the direction of the MCU and impact on box office grosses - despite this, I remain truly impressed by this franchise and its overall strength and consistency. 

 

Share of opening weekend from previews seems high - particular with the holiday - so I suspect its drop next weekend will be sizeable given both factors.

 

I've mentioned before that not all MCU films are for me (there are many I haven't seen). But I'm very much looking forward to the conclusion to the Guardians trilogy - among my favourite films in the MCU. If this knocks it out of the park, the franchise overall I'm sure will be seen as being back on track, etc. The franchise has clearly built up a lot of good will.

 

Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Share from Previews

 

Rank / Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights

1. Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 357.1 million (16.8%)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 260.1 million (19.2%)
3. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (15.1%)
4. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (9.0%)
5. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (12.5%)
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (14.4%)
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) — 187.4 million (19.2%)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) — 181.3 million (15.4%)
9. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (14.0%)
10. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (9.0%)
11. Captain Marvel (2019) — 153.4 million (13.5%)
12. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (11.6%)
13. Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) — 144.2 million (20.1%)
14. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (5.9%)
15. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 122.7 million (11.8%)
16. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (13.2%)
17. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) — 105.5 million (16.6%)

Peace,

Mike

[Mojoguy]

7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

It's second to TOP GUN: MAVERICK if we talk about $100M openers. It's crazy that the top two leggiest movies that opened with $100M or more are from the same year. WONDER WOMAN is number three. I excluded SHREK II since it opened on a Wednesday.

It's pretty wild how close it is getting to 700m. I never expected A2 to be that leggy, was expecting it to be the typical frontloaded sequel.

 

But TGM's insane summer weekdays are also fantastic, and the reason it keeps the 2022 DOM crown.

[Ronin46]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I would very much argue against it heading to 23; we had seen a slowdown before it was even clear reception was gonna be on the bad side and peeps (remembering me, M37 and maybe shawn in particular) were pushing back against the narrative that it was going to go that high to begin with.

 

I think if well received it was going to hit 20, I'll give you that, but I don't think it would hit 23 unless it had like nutso reviews or something crazy happening in the end - people assumed it would have a big jump because of smaller start but that big jump was not really coming through at the end, even before reviews

 

I dont think it was going to end up at 23. Heading to 23 means it was comping at that after quite a few days of sales. I expected it to be decently received and settle at 20-21 and make around 125M 3 day.  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

13 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

The biggest boost The Marvels can get right now is GotG vol 3 nailing it and Secret Invasion being good. Also don´t know if this counts as a spoiler but just to be safe:

  Hide contents

The movie will also be connected to the overall storyline of the saga so that might boost a bit

 

Spoiler

I know what you're talking about, and later rumours are implying it's not what you think it is and might be jumbled in a game of telephone.

 

[eddyxx]

2 hours ago, Firepower said:

What's the reason for The Marvels to not drop really hard from the first one? Maybe it's gonna have a huge guest character that's gonna boost its potential? Or maybe it's gonna be connected to a huge crossover? Or maybe the first film was very well received and the character is beloved? Or maybe this movie is gonna be so incredible all other things are not gonna matter and it'll carry itself with unbelievable WOM? No?

What if Russia starts world war 3 before that and we all die in a nuclear fire?

[Grebacio]

For The Marvels, I expect a 10% drop from Captian Marvel, and a 30% drop overseas. 
So, 384.1M DOM + 491.9M OS = 876M WW
 

[exomassey]

The Marvels I imagine is a 500m movie. 225 domestic + 275 international.

 

Captain Marvel had the Endgame buzz. This film naturally will just have a big drop. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

 

even if they werent obliged to, I cant see why a theater that wants to keep playing avatwo would ever drop 3d for it

Edited February 21, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[interiorgatordecorator]

10 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

For The Marvels, I expect a 10% drop from Captian Marvel, and a 30% drop overseas. 
So, 384.1M DOM + 491.9M OS = 876M WW
 

its probably losing 100 million from china no matter what

losing 30 percent of its OS-China means an OS gross in the mid 450s at most

[Issac Newton]

$200M is already *too high* for "The Marvels"

[wildphantom]

Yeah I don’t see how The Marvels can be called at this point. If the film is really good it’ll be fine, and there’s no reason to think it won’t be this far out. 
 

as for the MCU, the good will is still there and will have a boost if GotG3 is back to the franchise‘s best. Just like the NWH bump, it can literally happen with any MCU movie that has an ecstatic audience reception. 
 

By the time Marvels comes round, if GotG rules then most of that crowd will be back for that too - especially if it’s linked to a character we don’t know about yet etc. We know way too little of the film to say how it might fare with any kind of realistic prediction right now.  This is all overreaction to what is a mediocre Ant-Man instalment.  We’ve had mediocre plenty of times before with the MCU. 

[Firepower]

58 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

What if Russia starts world war 3 before that and we all die in a nuclear fire?

Not impossible, unfortunately.

[Firepower]

2 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I don't see why the marvels has obviously far worse variables when no one has seen the actual film and you have a more receptive China. 

Because the character is a lot less liked and it's coming off a lot less liked predecessor. China is the only advantage it has, but considering Ant-Man and Black Panther results there, those miserable 40 mln it'll likely make is not something to be proud of.

 

2 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Thor: Ragnarok also made quite a lot less than Captain Marvel.

Yeah because it didn't have giant crossover boost like Cap had.

 

2 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Are you more likely to see Thor 4 if you've seen Thor 3? 

Of course, Thor 3 was very well received, so it's more likely people would want to see a sequel to it than sequel to a movie with a very average reception.

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, eddyxx said:

What if Russia starts world war 3 before that and we all die in a nuclear fire?

 

Lets get it done!

[eddyxx]

I’m gonna go with 260 domestic and 350m overseas so about 610m worldwide for The Marvels.

[Firepower]

3 hours ago, Willowra said:

People don't know what they'll show in post-credit scenes.

Post-credit scenes won't boost its box office.

 

3 hours ago, Willowra said:

Yes, it is connected to either KD or Secret Wars, as per credible scoopers.

Well, we'll see. It should be reflected in marketing. Ant-Man was a big introduction to new Thanos threat and didn't do shit for it because of overall decline of the genre and because Avengers are at least 2 years away.

 

3 hours ago, Willowra said:

First film was well received, not very well though. Yes, a lot of people like the character. Movie poster has 5M likes across marvel/disney official instagram accounts(not counting regional marvel accounts and Brie Larson account).

We'll see trailer stats, they would tell a bigger story.

 

3 hours ago, Willowra said:

Yes, it is very much possible.

We'll see, but from all indications (scoopers and Disney's body movements) it's not good and The Dark Knight level reception is obviously impossible with this kind of movie and people involved.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Firepower

[John Marston]

leaks make The Marvels sound like another Love and Thunder