ELEMENTAL | 342.0M overseas | 496.4M worldwide

[AniNate]

Looks like it'll be a photo finish to 500m, Japan should hopefully be as leggy as the rest of the world

 

The longshot of passing WALL-E looks like it's dead though. 

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by AniNate

[kayumanggi]

 

[cannastop]

Did not realize this was so strong in Mexico.

[PatrickvD]

Hope it can make it to $500M. 
 

mat least it already outperformed all expectations.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Did not realize this was so strong in Mexico.

Over 5m admissions assuming 66.1 peso ATP. Brazil and Argentina also did 3-4m I think, it's just the lower ticket price hampered their ranking.

[ThomasNicole]

Nearly 23M globally this past week (excluding Japan). 
 

Should add ~70M with this, with +20M from Japan and US 

 

Still think it’s getting 500M, it won’t go much further than that but should reach it

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Over 5m admissions assuming 66.1 peso ATP. Brazil and Argentina also did 3-4m I think, it's just the lower ticket price hampered their ranking.

Argentina will be 2.45M admits (Currently 2.41M per Ultracine until Saturday)

 

Brazil will be 3.9M admits (I am thinking)

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Nearly 23M globally this past week (excluding Japan). 
 

Should add ~70M with this, with +20M from Japan and US 

 

Still think it’s getting 500M, it won’t go much further than that but should reach it

I am a little bit concerned about the impact TMNT will have, it's yet to release in some of Elemental's biggest markets and with many schools re-opening again theatres will be more likely to chop Elemental in favour of new competition. I could see a big drop coming out of nowhere one week killing $500m completely.

[cannastop]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I am a little bit concerned about the impact TMNT will have, it's yet to release in some of Elemental's biggest markets and with many schools re-opening again theatres will be more likely to chop Elemental in favour of new competition. I could see a big drop coming out of nowhere one week killing $500m completely.

well one thing for sure is that it won't affect Korea and Japan.

[AniNate]

If it has a big drop later I'll adjust expectations then, but I won't assume 500m is dead until evidence indicates such

 

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by AniNate

[cannastop]

OS Trends -

 

06.18 - $15.0M

06.25 - $55.6M (+40.6M)

07.02 - $98.0M (+42.4M)(+4%)

07.09 - $142.7M (+44.7M)(+5%)

07.16 - $186.4M (+43.7M)(-2%)

07.23 - $219.4M (+33.0M)(-24%)

07.30 - $248.7M (+29.3M) (-11%)

08.06 - $274.3M (+25.6M) (-13%)

Edited August 12, 2023 by cannastop

[cannastop]

13 minutes ago, cannastop said:

OS Trends -

 

06.18 - $15.0M

06.25 - $55.6M (+40.6M)

07.02 - $98.0M (+42.4M)(+4%)

07.09 - $142.7M (+44.7M)(+5%)

07.16 - $186.4M (+43.7M)(-2%)

07.23 - $219.4M (+33.0M)(-24%)

07.30 - $248.7M (+29.3M) (-11%)

08.06 - $275.4M (+26.7M) (-9%)

If it averages a 25% drop for the rest of the run, it hits $500m WW

[kayumanggi]

 

I know we have praised the performance in Korea a countless times, but these drops are just insane.

[JWR]

I think it'll just barely make it to $500M.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I know we have praised the performance in Korea a countless times, but these drops are just insane.

The weekly drop (Mon-Sun) was flat since a lot of schools went out. A 20% weekend drop is really good for this time of year. Next weeks presales aren't looking great though, it's gonna need some strong walkups.

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

The weekly drop (Mon-Sun) was flat since a lot of schools went out. A 20% weekend drop is really good for this time of year. Next weeks presales aren't looking great though, it's gonna need some strong walkups.

 

That's correct. Most of my Korean students end their vacation next week. I hope it still holds well, though.

[boxofficewatcher]

New to box office so the rest of the world already had their Sunday? Is that the whole weekend total, because its still sunday in America.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

8 minutes ago, boxofficewatcher said:

New to box office so the rest of the world already had their Sunday? Is that the whole weekend total, because its still sunday in America.

Most will be estimates but some totals will be actuals e.g. in Korea which posts actuals dead on midnight

[noeliam]

14 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Comparing to the totals by country one week ago, it looks like Mexico, China, Brazil, Argentina and Australia (I'm assuming the second Germany entry is Australia) are all done after impressive runs. The main contributors over the past week were:

 

South Korea - $5.1m

UK - $3m 

France - $2.2m

Spain - $2m

Germany - $1.9m

 

The UK and Germany should continue to be strong as TMNT has released already and didn't seem to impact Elemental too much. Looks like South Korea might finally be starting to slow after an outrageous run (maybe $2.5m-$3m this week?). TMNT opens in France this week but Elemental has proven pretty resilient there so far. TMNT doesn't open in Spain for a while. 

 

It'll be down to these fantastic five + Japan to get Elemental to $500m. I think it will get there!

 

$26.7m was added overseas this week. If there are 25% drops for the next three weeks, excluding Japan (note that Elemental hasn't had a weekly overseas drop of more than 24% and that was Barbenheimer opening weekend), that will add another $46.3m. That gets Elemental to $470m and around $30m required from Japan. In reality it's less than $30m because after three weeks the other overseas markets are not going to contribute zero. So $25m to $30m required from Japan, let's go!

 

[kayumanggi]

This will enter the top 10 worldwide next weekend, passing JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV and TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS.