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Sophie

How many films will surpass $700M at the box office worldwide this year?

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4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

No Guardians? I don't see how it misses the $700M mark with China. Even Love and Thunder crossed that threshold pretty easily with toxic wom 

Actually, I am starting to have lesser and lesser faith after each MCU release

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13 hours ago, Sophie said:

Because in both 2022 and 2023, that's about how much it takes to beat the big Chinese movie. 

 

Just kind of a useful benchmark when looking at the "20XX in film" pages on Wikipedia 

there is still a chance chinese movie gross more than 700 this year

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On 3/6/2023 at 4:45 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

No Guardians? I don't see how it misses the $700M mark with China. Even Love and Thunder crossed that threshold pretty easily with toxic wom 

 

All things considered, compared to how frontloaded Doctor Strange was, Love and Thunder's 2.34x legs don't look bad. 

 

We now have to adjust our leg expectations downwards for these type of sequels.

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Bump to update predictions. Would love others updated predictions as well. 

 

Super Mario easily crushed 700M. GOTG looks like it will manage to leg it out past 700M as well. 

 

Fast X and Little Mermaid both look like they have maybe a 50/50 shot, but I'm seeing much more positive buzz towards Little Mermaid.

 

Spider- Verse should have a fair shot at crossing 700M as well if it overperforms a bit. But overall not likely. 

 

Transformers looks like it's dead on arrival, and would probably be lucky to make half. 

 

I've now lost all my faith in Elemental, and am kinda surprised that I ever considered it a possibility. 

 

Latest buzz around Flash has raised my expectations for it a but though. 

 

So now the list is..  

 

1. Mario (done)

2. GOTG (looking pretty safe)

3. Indiana Jones (safest of unreleased, but still far from guaranteed)

4. Mission Impossible 

5.  Flash

6. Aquaman 

7. The Marvels 

8. Little Mermaid (50/50)

9. Fast X (50/50)

10. Spider-Verse (stretch)

11. Hunger Games (wildcard)

12. Dune (wildcard)

 

My worry is that not a single one of these upcoming films looks like a guaranteed homerun, and we could end up with 2023 being weaker than 2022 on the blockbuster front. Meaning that the post-covid recovery period may be coming to a close, and 2022/2023 might just be the new normal going forwards. 

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Mario (done)

GOTG Vol 3 (getting there)

LM - don't know why there's still scepticism, OS laps up these remakes

MI - will continue the 700M+ streak

The Flash

Aquaman and The Marvels - neither should drop under 700M most likely won't drop under 800M either

Indy 5 - probably didn't really follow

DUNC II and Spiderverse II - 700M is a reasonable jump from 400M+ previous movie

Hungergames - great trailer but doubtful unless the book is as huge OS as it's dom

Barbie - no clue how it'll play OS. It's a comedy satire and they can go either way. Some translate others don't. rn looks too American but then if dom is really bonekrs than it wouldn't need much from OS to cover the difference.

 

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Little Mermaid, Indy and MI7 are all three in a strong position to reach 700M.

Also, I can easily picture 2/3 of Flash / Marvels / Aquaman over that mark.

Add one overperformer (HG, Dune, Spider-man, Meg, Wish) and a surprising hit.

 

So gonna predict 9 movies over 700M

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21 hours ago, stripe said:

Little Mermaid, Indy and MI7 are all three in a strong position to reach 700M.

Also, I can easily picture 2/3 of Flash / Marvels / Aquaman over that mark.

Add one overperformer (HG, Dune, Spider-man, Meg, Wish) and a surprising hit.

 

So gonna predict 9 movies over 700M

Wait, what's the 9th? What do you think of Fast X's chances? If it has a Dom total of about 160 and a dom/os split of about 22/78 (as per ow projections), then that should let it just crawl past 700M. 

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23 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

I recokon Barbie, Flash, MI and Indy will pass it. maybe Dune and spiderverse if they overperform. 

I really don't understand why people have these high expectations for Barbie. I'd love to be wrong, but it seems like something with niche internet appeal that would not only be weak overseas, but also doesn't seem to be too family friendly. The cast is full of people adored by the letterboxd crowd, not box office draws. The one thing the film has going for it is the brand recognition, and I don't see how that alone could put 700M in play when it isn't even targeting the same demo (little girls + moms) as the actual IP. 

 

I'd imagine Barbie getting maybe 300-400M, if it's a big overperformer. But again, I'd love to be wrong. 

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Mario already achieved it.

Guardians will do it before June.

Fast X is estimated to open with 300M WW so it should surpass the mark as long as it doesn't collapse after its OW.

Little Mermaid is tracking well and it should have no problem in crossing the mark.

Spiderverse might come close but is still not a lock.

Flash is a big question mark but I think it will do it.

The previous installments of both Indy and M:I crossed the milestone, so the newest installments might do it too.

Add Marvels and Aquaman as long as they don't have bad WoM

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, Sophie said:

Wait, what's the 9th? What do you think of Fast X's chances? If it has a Dom total of about 160 and a dom/os split of about 22/78 (as per ow projections), then that should let it just crawl past 700M. 

 

9th would be the surprising hit. For me, something less probable like Oppenheimer, Barbie, Elementals, Haunted Mansion, or a film that comes out of nowhere. Many years there is a movie like this

2019: Joker, Ne Zha

2018: Bohemian Rhapsody

2017: Wolf Warrior, It

 

I am quite unsure about Fast X. OS markets are not as strong as few years ago. Anyways, I would put it in the same group as HG, Dune, or Spider-man.

 

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Fast X opening to $280M globally makes it more likely to land around $660M, imo. But it's not completely off the table. It's not too uncommon for films with poor reception and disappointing opening weekends to end up having stronger legs than expected. 

 

But on the bright side, Little Mermaid seems to be trending towards a serious overperformance, where $800M should be reachable. 

 

BOP predictions for Flash also put $800M within reach, so lets hope it lives up to those expectations. 

 

And in other news, BOP tracking for Spider-Verse is trending slightly downwards. 

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I’m late to the party but I think: 

 

Mario (already did it)

Guardians (about to do it) 

Fast X (opening says it’ll do it) 

The Flash (if that BOP prediction holds)

Indiana Jones (even if it’s bad)

Dune 2 (my wildcard pick) 

The Marvels (will land in this range)

Aquaman 2 

 

 

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7 hours ago, El Gato said:

I’m late to the party but I think: 

 

Mario (already did it)

Guardians (about to do it) 

Fast X (opening says it’ll do it) 

The Flash (if that BOP prediction holds)

Indiana Jones (even if it’s bad)

Dune 2 (my wildcard pick) 

The Marvels (will land in this range)

Aquaman 2 

 

 

Are we forgetting Mermaid, or are you thinking it won't make 700M?

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6 hours ago, upriser7 said:

I have a question...among movies which did $500M+ WorldWide, which movies have had the highest domestic skew ? 

American Sniper with 64%, but idk why you're asking that here 

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