3/3 - 3/5 Weekend Thread | Creed III gets the biggest franchise opening and MGM opening ever with 58.7M. #AintMan drops 61% for 12.5M. Jonathan Majors still getting paid fat stacks

[M37]

Just now, Reed121 said:

Why does Avatar keep increasing 100+ % on Saturdays? Is it because of the length of the movie?

Mostly, but also being deep into the run where it’s largely picking up causal viewers (or rewatches) who come out on weekends 

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

He could direct static shock or direct & star in the val-zod project he was producing (although that one's for HBO Max so idk if he'd still want to star in it)

 

 

I'd prefer an Icon movie over a black Superman movie.

[cookie]

 

[RamblinRed]

3 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

That's awful. Estimates could maybe, MAYBE get it under a 60% drop, but that's a super weak hold no matter what.  What are we looking at for DOM total, maybe $205-207m?

The actuals are going to have to increase more than $300K for AM:Q to get under 60%. Disney is usually pretty good with their estimates, so unless Sunday ends up being alot stronger than they are forecasting it may be hard to find that amount.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

 

What a goddamn embarrassment.

[interiorgatordecorator]

I sure would like an avatar expansion one of these days, think TGM had its first non-plf-only expansion this week of its run, dont think itll have much left if they wait till earth day for the expansion 

[vafrow]

Violent Night passes $50M, thanks largely to the magic 2000% increase it had last week.

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is the hold that bad? the movie seem holding good on Saturday and Sunday even with that optimistic Sunday estimate. The 2nd weekend drop is looking like a -50%, which is ok I guess?

Mar 4, 2023	-	$3,435,000	+53%	-28%	2,575	$1,334	$27,571,391	9
Mar 5, 2023	-	$2,970,000	-14%	-29%	2,575	$1,153	$30,541,391	10

My post was from yesterday morning, was in response to the Friday to Friday drop. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Violent Night passes $50M, thanks largely to the magic 2000% increase it had last week.

 

i was thinking maybe they would try the same with megan, but 5 million is way too much

[MovieMan89]

20 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Creed is gonna have a lot of competition for the male audience with Wick, Shazam and even D&D in next couple weeks plus it was around 38% premium screens and those will i assume be gone next weekend for scream, i think 150m DOM is more likely than 200m

Two of those aren’t competitors to anything except biggest bomb of the year, and JW is a bit different bc we’re talking a pg-13 vs an R. So I wouldn’t say direct comp, and even so Creed has a few weeks for nice holds before that. The IM is already showing this doesn’t look very frontloaded at all, most definitely think over 3x is happening. 

Edited March 5, 2023 by MovieMan89

[John Marston]

 

[Ronin46]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

My post was from yesterday morning, was in response to the Friday to Friday drop. 

 

Friday last week included previews and the early access day (which was over 2M). True Friday was 3.65. The movie is holding well and looks like it could reach 50M.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Come on now that's a bad faith comparison and you know it.

 

It'd be like saying in 2011 that Captain America the First Avenger would do nothing because the 1990 Captain America movie was a miserable flop and critical bomb. Or that the 2005 Fantastic Four movie was going to die because of the infamous unreleased 1994 movie.

 

 

Absolutely no one is going to go "Oh they made a god-awful movie over 20 years ago that has nothing to do with this movie, but now I will never go see this"

That wasn't my point heh. It's just funny to me that Hollywood spent $150M on such an unproven IP cinematically (besides the aforementioned failed piece of schlock) that is largely considered a punchline for nerds in general. I'm mostly just sad as a Chris Pine stan that this is looking to be yet another bomb for him lol.

Edited March 5, 2023 by filmlover

[CJohn]

I can't look away from Ant-Man's run. Feige and Iger must be having emergency meetings every day. Jeff Loveness needs to go back to TV and try writing smaller movies.

 

500M global total seems impossible. DOM total below the 2nd movie despite opening 30M above it. It feels unreal.

[MovieMan89]

I would also argue the first two Creed didn’t have the greatest holiday legs bc they’re not good holiday movies. This is a much better spot on the cal for this type of movie. A boxing film is too niche/too slight to really rise above in the holiday frame, but it can definitely do so during a quieter time of year. 

[filmlover]

Speaking of flops, I don't know why but this is amusing to me. The power of appearing in the recommendations section of multiple projects from both the cast (Ozark, Grace & Frankie) and the director (The Adam Project, Levy-produced Stranger Things) on Netflix, I guess.

 

 

[Elessar]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That wasn't my point heh. It's just funny to me that Hollywood spent $150M on such an unproven IP cinematically (besides the aforementioned failed piece of schlock) that is largely considered a punchline for nerds in general. I'm mostly just sad as a Chris Pine stan that this is looking to be yet another bomb for him lol.

 

This discussion always comes up when something doesn't pan out, usually after the fact. We should be glad studios are still taking bets on unproven IPs or even filmmakers once in a while instead of critising them.

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Elessar

[MovieMan89]

The one and only silver lining for AM at this point is that Shazam is about to make it look like No Way Home at the box office. 

Edited March 5, 2023 by MovieMan89

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I can't look away from Ant-Man's run. Feige and Iger must be having emergency meetings every day. Jeff Loveness needs to go back to TV and try writing smaller movies.

 

500M global total seem impossible. DOM total below the 2nd movie despite opening 30M above it. It feels unreal.

 

 

they will probably just blame the Ant Man character. They probably need something like an Avengers movie or GOTG 3 to flop before they consider any changes. 

[TMP]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The one and only silver lining for AM at this point is that Shazam is about to making it look like No Way Home at the box office. 

that's gonna be an ugly run