Weekend Thread - 3/17-19 | Weekend Est. - Shazam II $30.5M, Scream VI $17.5M, Creed III $15.4M, LXV $5.8M, #AintMan $4.1M

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[GOGODanca]

Paramount/Spyglass Media’s Scream VI ends its first week with an estimated $58.5M after winning Thursday with $2.7M, -14% from Wednesday at 3,675 theaters.

 

 

MGM/United Artists Releasing’s Creed III ends its second week with $38.1M after a $2.2M Thursday, -12% for a running total of $112.3M at 4,007 venues.

Sony’s 65 saw a first week of $16.6M after an estimated $870K Thursday, -10% at 3,405 theaters.

Disney/Marvel Studios’ fourth week of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is $10.8M after a fourth Thursday of $772K at 3,105, -13% and a running total of $201.7M. That’s 7% ahead of Ant-Man and the Wasp at the same point in time, that previous chapter ending its U.S./Canada run at $216.6M.

Universal’s Elizabeth Banks directed Cocaine Bear at 3,204 theaters did an estimated third Thursday of $643K, -9% from Wednesday, a $9.1M third week and running total of $54.6M.

[Gavin Feng]

 

[Gavin Feng]

Deadline say $40M opening

 

Quote

Shazam 2! by the same director as chapter 1, David F. Sandberg, is expected to come in under the first, and will be lucky to hit $40M (domestic outlook is $35M, $85M global). We’ve been in a hot marketplace whereby sequels have been setting franchise opening records, read Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1M), Creed III ($58.3M) and Scream VI ($44.4M). That doesn’t seem to be the case here with Shazam! Fury of the Gods. We’ll keep watch if Shazam 2‘s situation improves.

 

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Deadline say $40M opening

 

 

 

"Will be lucky..."

 

A 30M opening is already good at this point considering how bad the presales were.

[Issac Newton]

Warner is going with $35M

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Lets just move on to the John Wick 4 weekend thread.

[John Marston]

People spinning this as good lol 

[kayumanggi]

Just now, John Marston said:

People spinning this as good lol 

 

No one is?

[DAJK]

Well... better than it could have been I guess. Not GOOD by any stretch, but I was genuinely starting to think we were in for a bomb for the ages (15-17M opening lol).

[Legion Again]

27-30ish imo

[YM!]

Not as bad as expected but still not good. At least they have the DCU in 2025 lol.

[filmlover]

Not as bad as it seemed like it would be at one point earlier this week but yeah, this is still looking like a rough start and only time will tell if it's a sign of what's to come for the rest of their 2023 DC slate.

[Borobudur]

After seeing the movie myself, Shazam 2 is definitely better than what face value of RT score suggest. I enjoy the movie very much, it is a super solid-good crowd pleaser. 

[kayumanggi]

Can this weekend still make 100M+?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Eh. It's better than the sub-20 opening our trackers were anticipating a couple of days ago, and this will kill my club, but it's still a really bad number. Warner is likely glad though, as no one watching these Hamada leftovers besides The Flash will be a huge boon for the new Gunn regime at DC, as they'll be able to start fresh without any baggage. I'll end this post by reminding you all of the exact moment this entire franchise died:

Warner should have pressed the reboot button the moment the suits were shown this scene for the first time. But they didn't. And now here we are.

[JustLurking]

I reaaaaally don't see a 35 from here, and even over 30 in general seems really tough to me, I just don't see that sort of number happening when thursday is already getting spring break boosted.

 

I really doubt we'll see higher than 8 IM with spring break reviews/reception being what they are, I'll say 25-27

Edited March 17, 2023 by JustLurking

[TwoMisfits]

42 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Well... better than it could have been I guess. Not GOOD by any stretch, but I was genuinely starting to think we were in for a bomb for the ages (15-17M opening lol).

 

It's both helped (and hurt) by timing.  Sole large opener for movie subscriber base who will turn out most weekends to see something.  Plus, it's spring break weekend for a ton of colleges and some K-12.  So, you have a certain level of consumer base who is less price and quality sensitive who will seek something new and innocuous b/c it's "free" and they have the time, if they aren't interested in basketball or St Pat's parties...

 

 

[Legion Again]

37 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

the sub-20 opening our trackers were anticipating a couple of days ago

 

[vafrow]

55 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Can this weekend still make 100M+?

Unlikely.

 

I think it's being propped up by being a kid friendly option when there's been very little of that. In two weeks it gets Dungeons and Dragons which is almost the exact same tone as this, and a few days later Mario cuts out whatever remaining legs it has.

 

It's reviews and reactions thus far doesn't give any indication that it has breakout potential.

 

Likely lands $80-90M, but, with how bad superhero holds have been this past year, falling below that is definitely possible.