Weekend Thread - 3/17-19 | Weekend Est. - Shazam II $30.5M, Scream VI $17.5M, Creed III $15.4M, LXV $5.8M, #AintMan $4.1M

[stripe]

58 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Can this weekend still make 100M+?

 

It has a longshot., IMHO

 

Shazam! 30-35M

Scream: 19-20M

Creed: 16-17M
65: 5M
AMQ: 4.5M

CB: 4M

Champions: 3M

JR: 3M
Avatar: 2M

Puss: 1M

 

That's 87-92M just for the top10. Last weekend the films outside top 10 made 4M.

If a holdover is stronger than expected and EEAAO has a good Oscar bump, we can still see a 100M weekend. 

 

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Unlikely.

 

I think it's being propped up by being a kid friendly option when there's been very little of that. In two weeks it gets Dungeons and Dragons which is almost the exact same tone as this, and a few days later Mario cuts out whatever remaining legs it has.

 

It's reviews and reactions thus far doesn't give any indication that it has breakout potential.

 

Likely lands $80-90M, but, with how bad superhero holds have been this past year, falling below that is definitely possible.

He's asking about the aggregate weekend, not the shazam total. Though I doubt 80 is happening from here anyway.

[kayumanggi]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Unlikely.

 

I think it's being propped up by being a kid friendly option when there's been very little of that. In two weeks it gets Dungeons and Dragons which is almost the exact same tone as this, and a few days later Mario cuts out whatever remaining legs it has.

 

It's reviews and reactions thus far doesn't give any indication that it has breakout potential.

 

Likely lands $80-90M, but, with how bad superhero holds have been this past year, falling below that is definitely possible.

 

I was referring to the total gross for the weekend for all the movies. The first two weekends of March have both produced 100M+.

[CJohn]

This is doing 30M+ OW. It should have a strong Saturday.

[kayumanggi]

4 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

It has a longshot., IMHO

 

Shazam! 30-35M

Scream: 19-20M

Creed: 16-17M
65: 5M
AMQ: 4.5M

CB: 4M

Champions: 3M

JR: 3M
Avatar: 2M

Puss: 1M

 

That's 87-92M just for the top10. Last weekend the films outside top 10 made 4M.

If a holdover is stronger than expected and EEAAO has a good Oscar bump, we can still see a 100M weekend. 

 

 

If this fails, FURY OF THE GODS is to blame. 😅

[kayumanggi]

 

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

I forgot to update my number for this in the derby. Going to get destroyed.

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

% wise, the bump is stronger than Parasite's bump. Any news on how wide A24 will expand EEAAO this weekend? I would love to see this little movie pass 80m.

 

Even the Whale got some Oscar bump following its Best Actor win. The Whale will beat The Fabelmans if A24 also reexpand the movie. 

Mar 10, 2023	-	$16,965	+55%	-10%	106	$160	$16,983,297	92
Mar 11, 2023	-	$32,234	+90%	-12%	106	$304	$17,015,531	93
Mar 12, 2023	-	$14,565	-55%	-53%	106	$137	$17,030,096	94
Mar 13, 2023	-	$14,322	-2%	+31%	106	$135	$17,044,418	95
Mar 14, 2023	-	$14,387	n/c	+2%	106	$136	$17,058,805	96
Mar 15, 2023	-	$17,555	+22%	+58%	106	$166	$17,076,360	97
Mar 16, 2023	-	$12,247	-30%	+12%	106	$116	$17,088,607	98

[WrathOfHan]

Zach Levi is a dolt. I say let this FLOP.

[Dragoncaine]

I'm guessing this is a typo?

 

 

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I forgot to update my number for this in the derby. Going to get destroyed.

When I recommend it for this week I was expecting to get a theater count…  😅

 

I know some people who are thinking 4M+ but I just can’t see it, guessing maybe 1500-2000 locs

[Ronin46]

4 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

When I recommend it for this week I was expecting to get a theater count…  😅

 

I know some people who are thinking 4M+ but I just can’t see it, guessing maybe 1500-2000 locs

 

I wrote 0.5M on Wed and forgot to update it. Its a bit hard being on a  different time zone to remember these things. Happened a few times. Thats why I have won a few weeks and finished 2nd last or last others when I do not do a last minute update.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Ronin46

[CaptNathanBrittles]

If SHAZAM 2 is as preview heavy as the first one then $19.8m OW is on the cards.

[MattW]

3 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

If SHAZAM 2 is as preview heavy as the first one then $19.8m OW is on the cards.

I think a big part of the reason the preview number is this low is because it's less fan heavy which should help the multiplier somewhat compared to other cbms from the last 2 years. Probably not that much though, I think 10x is being generous.

[efialtes76]

11 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

If SHAZAM 2 is as preview heavy as the first one then $19.8m OW is on the cards.

?

The first one did $5.9m on Thursday previews and $53m+OW...

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

?

The first one did $5.9m on Thursday previews and $53m+OW...

 

It had another Fandango preview day of 3.3M (so 9.2m total previews) so makes it confusing.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

3 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

?

The first one did $5.9m on Thursday previews and $53m+OW...

 

According to the-numbers it did $9.2m

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Shazam-(2019)#tab=box-office

 

Blame them if I'm wrong!

[Krissykins]

41 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

According to the-numbers it did $9.2m

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Shazam-(2019)#tab=box-office

 

Blame them if I'm wrong!

You are both wrong. $9.2m included early screenings prior to the Thursday. 

[MovieMan89]

A 30-35 OW with such poor reviews is unlikely to translate to a 2x multi. Really think it’s missing 150 WW

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

A 30-35 OW with such poor reviews is unlikely to translate to a 2x multi. Really think it’s missing 150 WW

 

To much competition around with Scream and Creed still doing business and JW4 next week and then D&D.