April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

I don't know why people think Elemental will flop, it looks good and I think it'll help Pixar regain its status as one of the top animation studios even though some on here are hoping for its demise.

It looks dangerously close to being a try-hard retread of “classic” Pixar. I’m hopeful, but I also feel like it’s  an original IP that just didn’t seem original. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

need mafia mamma numbers

[Jonwo]

44 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

Probably one of these 2

 

 

I mean it's Ari Aster, what were they expecting? 

[MovieMan89]

Elemental kinda feels like a Disney exec just discovered the whole “what if xyz had feelings” Pixar meme and actually took it seriously as to what Pixar is “supposed” to do. 

[John Marston]

24 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Some really atrocious holds for Air, John Wick and DnD.

 

 

fools underestimated the Mario movie. Probably getting a lot of their showtimes dumped 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Count Eric said:

It's not a nostalgic toy commerical. It is a toy commercial, but it isn't based off an established property, and auds don't like that. I know some don't like me saying this stuff, but...that's just how things are now. 🤷‍♂️

 

I mean, anecdotally, for Elementals, my kids say the film looks way too derivative and generic...this is a tween/teen reaction...

 

And they don't tend to go for the "romance" movie, even though they are older.  That said, neither of my girls were ever "princess" girls, so I can't say my kids are the norm.

 

That said, they were hyped for Mario...and they seem to be GA on that.

 

Their next hype movie is Spidey.  So, take that for what it's worth...

[grim22]

35 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Some really atrocious holds for Air, John Wick and DnD.

DnD feels like the movie really couldn't overcome the reputation the franchise has as being exclusively for nerds. Full credit to the studio for trying everything to get the hype up but there was obviously a limit to how far the franchise could go.

[AGlitchGnome]

At this point D&D is looking to be a bigger bomb than Shazam? I think in terms of monetary loss it's definitely worse. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Devastating for Dungeons and Dragons, and easily one of the most unfair flops of all time, as the movie was stellar. I guess the extremely niche target audience and the Wizards of the Coast controversy make for a lethal cocktail. I really hope it eventually becomes a cult classic in the next few years. It'll certainly be the directors' last big budget theatrical feature for a long time. I'll definitely be there for what they do next even if it's Netflix fodder.

 

Also, count me in the "Elemental is going to be a megaflop" camp. I don't see it making much more than Lightyear if it's really as cookie cutter as the marketing makes it look like. Audiences are evidently getting tired of the Disney way as their animated movies have all bombed since the pandemic while Universal's studios have thrived. It really needed to push the medium forward like Puss in Boots 2 or have inventive marketing like Minions 2 and Mario.

[YM!]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I don't know why people think Elemental will flop, it looks good and I think it'll help Pixar regain its status as one of the top animation studios even though some on here are hoping for its demise.

Who here is genuinely predicting the demise of Pixar because they don’t have high expectations for Elemental?

 

I think Pixar has been head and shoulders above their mainstream family animation competitors in the 2020s with the exception of Pinocchio but the Plus has done a lot of damage to the brand that will take time to mend (I mean for both Illumination or Dreamworks had brands to pretty sizeable IP like Mario, Minions, Puss and Sing in addition to not have to worry about imminent streaming releases where we haven’t had a sequel outside of Lightyear which was a concept that no one really wanted) especially in a competitive June and it likely being a less of a priority for Disney to market compared to Mermaid or Indy.

It and Transformers seem like the two underperformers of that month. Cars 3 result would be good for Elemental and if it can do more, great. Strong reception and legs are going to be the main hope for it. I think Wish and Elio’s concepts are likely good steps in the right direction though.

Edited April 15, 2023 by YM!

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Who here is genuinely predicting the demise of Pixar because they don’t have high expectations for Elemental?

 

I think Pixar has been head and shoulders above their mainstream family animation competitors in the 2020s with the exception of Pinocchio but the Plus has done a lot of damage to the brand that will take time to mend (I mean for both Illumination or Dreamworks had brands to pretty sizeable IP like Mario, Minions, Puss and Sing in addition to not have to worry about imminent streaming releases where we haven’t had a sequel outside of Lightyear which was a concept that no one really wanted) especially in a competitive June. It and Transformers seem like the two underperformers of that month. I think Wish and Elio’s concepts are likely good steps in the right direction though.

June is so packed that there's bound to be underperformers but I think the only ones that immediately stick out as obvious casualties are Strays (could this look any more tired?) and Ruby Gillman (after Puss in Boots, it seems like it's back to nonstarters for DreamWorks). Think the biggies can easily co-exist, provided the quality is there for all of them.

[PrinceRico]

D&D flopping is no surprise at all. There was mini treats outside of its small fanbase.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

June is so packed that there's bound to be underperformers but I think the only ones that immediately stick out as obvious casualties are Strays (could this look any more tired?) and Ruby Gillman (after Puss in Boots, it seems like it's back to nonstarters for DreamWorks). Think the biggies can easily co-exist, provided the quality is there for all of them.

I count Gillman and Indy more as July but yeah Luca/Mean Girls/Aquaman seems like a none starter but it not Strays don’t have the blockbuster potential that Across/Beasts/Elemental/Flash has.

 

These studios really got to get over the summer stigma and spread shit out. I’d rather a more spread out summer than a stacked one where only five or so blockbusters do well and everything else underperforms. There’s no reason Mario should’ve been the only family film since Puss 2. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

16 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

subtracting 200 million from my prediction

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, AGlitchGnome said:

At this point D&D is looking to be a bigger bomb than Shazam? I think in terms of monetary loss it's definitely worse. 

 

SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

budget: 125M

domestic: 60M

overseas: 75M

 

DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

budget: 150M

domestic: 90M

overseas: 100M*

 

*some markets have just opened and still to open

[kayumanggi]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Some really atrocious holds for Air, John Wick and DnD.

 

Sub 50% drops are not atrocious, CJohn. 😂

[AGlitchGnome]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

budget: 125M

domestic: 60M

overseas: 75M

 

DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

budget: 150M

domestic: 90M

overseas: 100M*

 

*some markets have just opened and still to open

Looking at it like this I guess they are about the same? DnD could still have some good holds and make a bit more since it still has a little bit of time in theaters.

[Kon]

28 minutes ago, AGlitchGnome said:

Looking at it like this I guess they are about the same? DnD could still have some good holds and make a bit more since it still has a little bit of time in theaters.

If I'm not mistaken, the numbers kayumanggi show were predictions.

 

Currently, the box office (at 13th April) of DnD is this:

 

DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES 

Budget: 150 million

Domestic: $66.7 million

Overseas: $61.8 million

 

 

I'm not totally sure DnD could really reach $90 million at domestic level, since predictions for this weekend are less than 7 million

 

Edited April 15, 2023 by Kon

[keysersoze123]

21m+ possible.