April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

The Flash isn't really a "kids movie". I'd be more worried that Spiderverse would eat up all/most kids admissions this summer more than Flash.

 

That's the problem - they can all draw families, and Spidey will do it the best, and likely "win" - I mean, we had 3 family drawing movies in a 4 week timeframe - Shazam, DnD, and Mario.  Families did not split, and ended up picking just one movie in the short time frame.  That was to Mario's huge benefit and Shazam and DnD's huge disaster...I didn't see this happening as lopslidedly as it did, but this is why we watch the box office (and why, after DnD flopped, even with the early bad Mario reviews, I immediately jumped into the Mario $500M DOM club b/c it was the audience I was watching, not the quality of the films - those just always needed to be good enough)...

 

In summer, the hope is more family splitting happens than happened this spring, and while I think that's true, more splitting gets Elemental to a still-subpar open (vs Shazam and DnD's catastrophic ones),

 

And working against Elemental is that Shazam and DnD had open weekends - Elemental does not, and instead has a specifically Father's Day drawing blockbuster...even if I don't believe in that one, either...I still believe it will draw male and dads...

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, YM! said:

Any PG-13 tentpole especially CBMs is a kids movie in some form due to a lot of crossover. Especially when they got to get back into full swing as the Plus took away a lot eyeballs.

 

Thinking Elemental does 30-45M OW but with good WOM and reviews legs it to 150M DOM. If it doesn’t get lost in the shuffle with Mermaid and Indy in terms of marketing, maybe 50/200.

 

That's my thinking, too...but at its budget, that probably makes it a money loser, just not a bomb...

[efialtes76]

46 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

Very bad.

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

-	(-)	Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century…	$40,000	+26%	-73%	160	$250	$682,862,582	120
-	(-)	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Qua…	Walt Disney	$11,000	-55%	-90%	75	$147	$212,880,215	57

 

With those Ant Man numbers, it's official - Puss 2 beats Ant Man 3 WW - aka, the club won...

[Starrow5722]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

The holdovers are getting destroyed! There are just too many of wide releases out there and they can't ask Mario to make way so all holdovers suffer. 

It seems as though even Scream 6 wasn't safe from Mario's onslaught this time. 

[Shawn Robbins]

22.6 mario

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Starrow5722 said:

It seems as though even Scream 6 wasn't safe from Mario's onslaught this time. 

 

It had a lot of drops - both my locals dropped it.

 

With 5 wide openers (I think - it just kept growing this weekend) and Mario carrying (almost) all its screens and showings, I posted that early March holdovers were all getting dropped, b/c there were literally only 3-4 screens open for everything held over at 12-14 screen theaters, and Air had to keep 1...

 

Next weekend will likely continue the same for the late March movies...

Edited April 15, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[KP1025]

Excellent 129% increase for Mario. >$80 million weekend is locked.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[superduperm]

22.6 is excellent.

 

I’m thinking 38 Saturday and 26.5 Sunday. $87M second weekend.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That's the problem - they can all draw families, and Spidey will do it the best, and likely "win" - I mean, we had 3 family drawing movies in a 4 week timeframe - Shazam, DnD, and Mario.  Families did not split, and ended up picking just one movie in the short time frame.  That was to Mario's huge benefit and Shazam and DnD's huge disaster...I didn't see this happening as lopslidedly as it did, but this is why we watch the box office (and why, after DnD flopped, even with the early bad Mario reviews, I immediately jumped into the Mario $500M DOM club b/c it was the audience I was watching, not the quality of the films - those just always needed to be good enough)...

 

In summer, the hope is more family splitting happens than happened this spring, and while I think that's true, more splitting gets Elemental to a still-subpar open (vs Shazam and DnD's catastrophic ones),

 

And working against Elemental is that Shazam and DnD had open weekends - Elemental does not, and instead has a specifically Father's Day drawing blockbuster...even if I don't believe in that one, either...I still believe it will draw male and dads...

The June before Covid has been doing $1bn with some of the good years went over $1.2bn. By right this is what domestic market should aim for if they want a see any normality post-Covid. If Elementary isn't making a typical Pixar June releases' number, there should be some other movie coming in and replace them. Ideally there shouldn't be much cannibalization unless June is making over $1bn aggregately. 

 

15 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

The holdovers are getting destroyed! There are just too many of wide releases out there and they can't ask Mario to make way so all holdovers suffer. 

 April is on track generating $750m-$800m, this is in line with what we got for April in pre-Covid times (save for 2018 and 2019 when they moved up Avengers film to late-Apr)

 

Therefore, we can deduce the market is pretty loaded. There just aren't enough money on the table for everyone. April is looking to be like a first "normal" month in 2023. The first quarter just aren't looking good enough to be called a "back-to-normal" state. 

[danman345]

19 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

It's joever

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Brainbug]

This weekend kinda proofs imo that a sizable portion of once-moviegoers is maybe forever lost. Pre-Covid, the holdovers woudnt have tanked to badly, but since there is now considerably less people going to the theaters, its more than ever go high or die.

 

This could mean serious trouble for many summer movies.

Edited April 15, 2023 by Brainbug

[YM!]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That's my thinking, too...but at its budget, that probably makes it a money loser, just not a bomb...

Wish and Elio are the rebound. Assuming both KFP4 and Trolls 3 move and long windows to force families out.
 

Thinking 45/70/200/550 for Wish and 65/250/600 for Elio.

[filmlover]

Keep in mind last weekend was Good Friday/Easter, which means the week-to-week drops yesterday were always going to look harsh. With the exception of this weekend's Who Cares? collection of openers, increases are likely to be strong across the board today.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

This weekend kinda proofs imo that a sizable portion of once-moviegoers is maybe forever lost. Pre-Covid, the holdovers woudnt have tanked to badly, but since there is now considerably less people going to the theaters, its more than over go high or die.

 

This could mean serious trouble for many summer movies.

Absolutely. It cant wrap my head around the drops of Air, DnD and JW4. There is no reason for any of them to drop over 40% this weekend yet here we are with all of them looking at 50%+ drops.

[M37]

27 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Ant Man can't catch a break.  It's run is truly over.

Its run was over last week. We as a family went to movies last weekend, wanted to see either 65 or Ant-Man. The former was gone completely, the latter had one show in the entire market (ended up settling for D&D, Mario will happen eventually).
Everything under $1000 PTA got dropped for Mario, and even this weekend there are 4 new releases in 900+ locations, 3 in over 2100, so no room for any kind of mini re-expansion as Mario drops some shows from OW. 
 

The cumulative effect of competition over the last 6 weeks has just suffocated anything not in top 5