WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

[Mulder]

On 4/19/2023 at 3:29 AM, scytheavatar said:

Quality of writing in recent movies/shows, even well received ones like John Wick 4, have been so bad that I am not sure how AI can't make things better. If you can't write better than a computer then your writing skills suck and you shouldn't complain about computers eating your lunch. 

Its always the dudes with letter avatars and under 50 posts

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I don't see why this strike is any more likely than any other potential strike in the past near two decades since the last one

 

 

(taken from the Tracking Thread)

 

Because writers are pissed the fuck off about revenues from streaming (they're getting fucked royally) AND studios are looking to tighten their belts in the streaming world after finding out that golly gee wilikers, maybe it isn't gonna be a mega profitable biz after all.

 

It's the fight over streaming which is new (well sort of, but the importance is what's new).  We came damn close to a IATSE strike and that was only averted at the very very last minute.  Since then, the outlook for streaming has only gotten worse become more apparent that while it might become profitable for most studios it isn't gonna be a patch on linear broadcast/cable profitability plus a looming possible recession.

 

The main thing that can stop the strike from happening is more or less the same thing that stopped the IATSE one: Needing to feed the beast.

 

But here the fight is mainly over residuals as opposed to work conditions.  At least as I understand it.  Considering a fight over residuals was one of the main motivators for the 2008 strike, again as I understand it, it doesn't strike me as unlikely at all that one could happen here.

 

NB:  I might put the odds anywhere from 40-60 to 50-50 to 60-40.  But it really comes down to how much the studios collectively realize that writers are Pissed The Fuck Off about how they've been treated in the streaming world and how much they want to actually avoid a strike given there's been some sobering about the whole streaming biz.

 

If studios are ultra serious about cutting costs?  Then shift the odds to 60-40 to 70-30 to 80-20.  If the studios (think they can) figure out a way to pay writers more fairly while slimming down their streaming budgets?  Back to my original odds.

 

Also think the utter lack of transparency regarding streaming in general isn't helping matters.  If writers can't figure out how successful something is and/or what actually matters in renewing series, then it becomes harder to demand a fairer wage.  But that's more for the general mood and why the WGA collectively is so upset about residuals

Edited April 24, 2023 by Porthos

[filmlover]

Watch them strike a deal at exactly 11:58 PM next Sunday night (2 minutes before the deadline until the strike). Would be the kind of down to the wire twist you expect from a movie.

[SpiderByte]

I think the stakes being higher makes it much more likely an eleventh hour compromise, or delay, is staked out.

[ChipDerby]

I am 100% supporting the writers on this. I do think some sort of compromise will be reached prior to the strike because these studios need shows/movies. I don't think they can afford NOT to pay them.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Watch them strike a deal at exactly 11:58 PM next Sunday night (2 minutes before the deadline until the strike). Would be the kind of down to the wire twist you expect from a movie.

I don't necessarily they will strike immediately on May 1st (I could be wrong here). They just have the authorization to and will not be operating under a current contract. If they are still in good faith bargaining, they will hold off until it's clear no deal can be made.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Joe Russo hyping up AI generated movies a week before the strike date is sus at best and scummy at worst.

[grim22]

 

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

The main thing surrounding this is residuals from streaming, so I'm not surprised Netflix is being so resistant to coming to an agreement. Esp after their whole "we got plenty of content to last the strike" shit.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

 

Everyone to the head honchos at Netflix whenever they show up to any party this upcoming fall/early 2024 awards season:

 

 

One studio holding an entire industry hostage in continuing to work would be some bullshit lol. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Netflix can just buy up a decade's worth of international schlock and weather the storm without breaking a sweat. That's what's so scary about this. Place your bets now on if the forthcoming delay storm is going to be as bad as the one which happened when the virus first landed.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Netflix can just buy up a decade's worth of international schlock and weather the storm without breaking a sweat. That's what's so scary about this. Place your bets now on if the forthcoming delay storm is going to be as bad as the one which happened when the virus first landed.

 

The WGA is highly unlikely to hold up production (at least not for longer than a few weeks if the strike really does come to pass) all because Netflix is determined to prove the theory they really are Blockbuster 2.0 is true. If they're actually coming close to a deal with everyone else they'll allow them to continue with business as usual while sending out a warning of "you will be dealt with" to Netflix.

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

The WGA is highly unlikely to hold up production (at least not for longer than a few weeks if the strike really does come to pass) all because Netflix is determined to prove the theory they really are Blockbuster 2.0 is true. If they're actually coming close to a deal with everyone else they'll allow them to continue with business as usual while sending out a warning of "you will be dealt with" to Netflix.

Netflix is nothing like blockbuster. That company perished because they did not stick with times. Hard balling during these negotiations are SOP. What is in it for them to agree to this?

[SpiderByte]

Is the deadline midnight EST or PST? Either way my guess is they go late and break something out by sunrise.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

35 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Is the deadline midnight EST or PST? Either way my guess is they go late and break something out by sunrise.

No, Netflix will ensure the strike happens. They won't budge. They have more than enough content in the pipeline to pass the time, and that's before they decide to buy up some more Asian cheese.

[Jonwo]

The concern trolling about a potential WGA strike is a bit tiresome, we saw what happened in 2007/8 and hardly any films got delayed, it was TV that got whacked because of the nature of television in the US especially network TV is written and shot closer to transmission.  That's should be the comparison not the first wave of the pandemic.

 

The majority of 2023 films are already shot and/or in post production and there are a number of 2024 films which are shot and/or in post production. 

[poweranimals]

Can't they just ban Netflix from the WGA?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Can't they just ban Netflix from the WGA?

Sheer number of jobs that Netflix generates. Why would they ban. Netflix would start hiring people outside WGA and then there would be a parallel organization. Netflix is too big to be ignored at this point. 

[SpiderByte]

5 hours ago, Jonwo said:

The concern trolling about a potential WGA strike is a bit tiresome, we saw what happened in 2007/8 and hardly any films got delayed, it was TV that got whacked because of the nature of television in the US especially network TV is written and shot closer to transmission.  That's should be the comparison not the first wave of the pandemic.

 

The majority of 2023 films are already shot and/or in post production and there are a number of 2024 films which are shot and/or in post production. 

Yeah, films are fine. It'll impact some films but the ones it'll affect are further out. The big thing is stuff like late night TV which is scripted daily, then network television shows which have a short turnaround, and then cable and streaming (maybe extra tough for Netflix since, with a simultaneous release, multiple episodes are written at the same time). The films impacted will largely be smaller films or films that are very early in scripting.

[poweranimals]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sheer number of jobs that Netflix generates. Why would they ban. Netflix would start hiring people outside WGA and then there would be a parallel organization. Netflix is too big to be ignored at this point. 

They can't really generate jobs if there's a strike though. Obviously it would be temporary until they agreed to terms. Seems better than letting Netflix hold the industry hostage.