Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

[kayumanggi]

Edited April 23, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Nate]

31 minutes ago, M37 said:

I'm a bit higher in the $580-$585 range, which would make Mario the third recent film to finish less than $20M away from a $100M threshold (Avatwo ~$683M, Puss ~$186M), with Wick on track to do the same, while D&D still has an outside chance to get all the way there

Right where I’m seeing it too. Would need to either hold even stronger (20ish drops) or start dropping a bit harder (40ish drops) to get out of the 580ish range.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

18 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

FRIDAY

 

14.09M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

10.30M | EVIL DEAD RISE

02.25M | THE COVENANT

01.57M | JOHN WICK IV

01.40M | AIR

01.39M | D&D: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

01.13M | BEAU IS AFRAID

01.00M | THE POPE'S EXORCIST

00.91M | RENFIELD

00.54M | CHEVALIER

00.44M | SUZUME

 

WEEKEND ESTIMATES

 

58.23M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

23.50M | EVIL DEAD RISE

06.28M | THE COVENANT

05.75M | JOHN WICK IV

05.55M | AIR

05.40M | D&D: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

03.32M | THE POPE'S EXORCIST

03.11M | RENFIELD

02.71M | BEAU IS AFRAID

01.63M | SUZUME

01.50M | CHEVALIER

[kayumanggi]

 

[TwoMisfits]

In silver lining news for holdovers...with GOTG 3 presales disappointing so far, it's very possible that films we expected had to be dropped for its open (like DnD and JW4 and Air) may get a reprieve if there is no real expansions for the movie.  The Cinemark chain set very low for MCU to start with, and it may not even need to expand, so it should have the screens to let some movies unexpectedly breathe even more into May than they might have originally...

Edited April 23, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[kayumanggi]

 

[elcaballero]

7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

WEEKEND ESTIMATES

 

58.23M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

23.50M | EVIL DEAD RISE

06.28M | THE COVENANT

05.75M | JOHN WICK IV

05.55M | AIR

05.40M | D&D: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

03.32M | THE POPE'S EXORCIST

03.11M | RENFIELD

02.71M | BEAU IS AFRAID

01.63M | SUZUME

01.50M | CHEVALIER

All in all, seems pretty solid. Really like seeing the better holds for Wick, Air, and D&D.

[Issac Newton]

FYI, Your Name did $373M Asia against a Global Total of $390M.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

In silver lining news for holdovers...with GOTG 3 presales disappointing so far, it's very possible that films we expected had to be dropped for its open (like DnD and JW3 and Air) may get a reprieve if there is no real expansions for the movie.  The Cinemark chain set very low for MCU to start with, and it may not even need to expand, so it should have the screens to let some movies unexpectedly breathe even more into May than they might have originally...

And unlike when AMWQ opened, theaters aren't nearly as starved for content/business (4 straight weeks of sub-$103M total weekly gross vs 7/10 of $150M+) that they feel forced to put all their chips on one movie over-performing and max out screens

 

The days of Disney being able to force demands on screens and shows because of the overall strength of their lineup may be starting to come to end ...

[M37]

3 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

All in all, seems pretty solid. Really like seeing the better holds for Wick, Air, and D&D.

Next weekend, with basically nothing coming out in advance of GOTG3, those top 4 holdovers should all be 5-10% better

[KP1025]

47 minutes ago, M37 said:

If that estimate holds, it would be 11.87x Thursday, vs 11.69x for Jungle Book, while Sonic 2 (two weeks after Easter) was 15.91x

 

Curious to see how strong of a Sunday hold Universal projects after last week's monster Sun,  but regardless I think $40M+ is in the cards for 4th weekend

 

Universal is going with 30% Sunday drop, which would be average for this time of year. Probably unlikely to happen, but Mario needs the exact same 23% drop it had last Sunday to hit $60 million with that Fri + Sat estimate.

 

Apr 21, 2023	1	$14,200,000	+189%	-37%	4,350	$3,264	$390,299,610	17
Apr 22, 2023	1	$25,900,000	+82%	-34%	4,350	$5,954	$416,199,610	18
Apr 23, 2023	1	$18,130,000	-30%	-40%	4,350	$4,168	$434,329,610	19

[elcaballero]

12 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

FYI, Your Name did $373M Asia against a Global Total of $390M.

Translation: whoa, the Chinese box office is huge.

 

I do wish Suzume was doing better in the west, such a good movie.