Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

[TigerPaw]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

Next weekend, with basically nothing coming out in advance of GOTG3, those top 4 holdovers should all be 5-10% better

Let's hope they don't lose many theaters..

[Issac Newton]

21 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

Translation: whoa, the Chinese box office is huge.

 

I do wish Suzume was doing better in the west, such a good movie.

It's performing better among Shinkai. I can see a total of $30M Outside Asia. Seems fine. I just wonder how Miyazaki Final Film will do in Overseas.

[stuart360]

Just a reminder that Mario is going to become only the 19th movie to hit 500mil domestic, and only the 14th to hit 550mil (it should get there).

People act like 500mil is nothing these days but it is still a tough number to hit so remember that when it misses out on 600mil and people start with the negativity.

Edited April 23, 2023 by stuart360

[screambaby]

Box office much better overall this weekend then last

[MovieMan89]

People are way underestimating what Mario will make in May. Holds are still gonna be great. GotG3 is more of a nuisance to PLF/3D share than much of a direct competitor, and we have seen lately with these juggernaut WOM hits that they can easily withstand another big blockbuster opening. A2 didn’t crumble like most were saying against AM3, TGM didn’t crumble against Thor, etc. 

 

After GotG3, May is a clear slate for Mario comp until Mermaid at the end of the month. The one and only concern I have for 600 is the insane Memorial to late June stretch for comp. That said, we also see that heavy comp often doesn’t effect movies that late in their legs a ton either, bc the grosses are already low. Still shocked if it misses 600, and I’m sure the studio would pull any tricks necessary to get the all time animation DOM record if it did end up coming that close and running out of gas. But it will be fine on its own for the milestone imo. 

Edited April 23, 2023 by MovieMan89

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

 

[Brainbug]

40,3M WW OW for Evil Dead!

 

Great numbers, im really happy for it.

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

And unlike when AMWQ opened, theaters aren't nearly as starved for content/business (4 straight weeks of sub-$103M total weekly gross vs 7/10 of $150M+) that they feel forced to put all their chips on one movie over-performing and max out screens

 

The days of Disney being able to force demands on screens and shows because of the overall strength of their lineup may be starting to come to end ...

Studios can and will make demands. Avatar 3 will likely get the best showtimes as will Indiana Jones. 

[DAJK]

Is it just me or is a 6.3M opening for The Covenant kind of a win? The movie had pretty much zero marketing, no buzz, and yet it still managed to open to double what Operation Fortune did.

 

Obviously there are bigger stories this weekend, but it's nice to recognize smaller success stories, like something overperforming expectations, when it does happen.

[filmlover]

Mario is still a beast and Evil Dead coming close to the opening of the '13 movie is great news as well. The Covenant is unsurprisingly yet another nonstarter for Jake G (and for Guy Ritchie as well - he might want to try and get the ball rolling on his live-action Hercules at Disney soon since that Henry Cavill movie he has next sounds equally floppy too), while Beau seems destined to fade fast. Really strong holds for John Wick, Air, and Dungeons & Dragons, will likely be another round of strong holds for next weekend's calm before the summer storm too with nothing truly major opening.

Edited April 23, 2023 by filmlover

[Austin]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Mario is still a beast and Evil Dead coming close to the opening of the '13 movie is great news as well. The Covenant is yet another nonstarter for Jake G (and for Guy Ritchie as well - he might want to get try and get the ball rolling on his live-action Hercules at Disney soon since that Henry Cavill movie he has next sounds equally floppy too), while Beau seems destined to fade fast. Really strong holds for John Wick, Air, and Dungeons & Dragons, will likely be another round of strong holds for next weekend's calm before the summer storm too with nothing truly major opening.

The live-action Hercules is the only remake I want 😭.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

D&D running total falls behind EDGE OF TOMORROW for the first time this weekend. $100m highly unlikely.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Studios can and will make demands. Avatar 3 will likely get the best showtimes as will Indiana Jones. 

They can make demands, but the more crowded and/or balanced the market and the less powerful the studio/franchise in question, the less exhibitors are inclined to acquiesce to them. It’s always a negotiation, works best when it’s a collaboration rather than one dictating terms 

 

For Avatar 3 based on the last two? Sure 

But GOTG or Indiana? Not so much. There was a time, at the height of MCU & SW, that Disney could get almost anything they asked for*, and I don’t think we’re living in that world anymore 

 

*for one release (I can’t recall which one) Disney wanted a % of concession revenue too

[grey ghost]

If Mario doesn't make at least ____ million next weekend 600m is dead.

 

Fill in the blank?

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

They can make demands, but the more crowded and/or balanced the market and the less powerful the studio/franchise in question, the less exhibitors are inclined to acquiesce to them. It’s always a negotiation, works best when it’s a collaboration rather than one dictating terms 

 

For Avatar 3 based on the last two? Sure 

But GOTG or Indiana? Not so much. There was a time, at the height of MCU & SW, that Disney could get almost anything they asked for*, and I don’t think we’re living in that world anymore 

 

*for one release (I can’t recall which one) Disney wanted a % of concession revenue too

I can't imagine exhibitors would say no to Disney's titles, they're still popular and they may not be at the highs of 2019 but they're not going to putting WDAS and Pixar films or the latest MCU film with crappy showtimes or the smallest screens. 

[cooldude97]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

If Mario doesn't make at least ____ million next weekend 600m is dead.

 

Fill in the blank?

tree fiddy

[Chaz]

Who reports Chinese box office totals? The CCP?

[Weetabix]

A few miscellaneous global holdover numbers from Deadline:

 

The Pope’s Exorcist (SNY): $5.7M intl weekend (53 markets); $37.1M intl cume/$52M global
*Tokyo Revengers 2 Part 1 (WB): $4.3M intl weekend (Japan only); $4.3M intl cume
Air (WB): $3.9M intl weekend (67 markets); $27.1M intl cume/$68.9M global
Suzume (CR/SNY): $3M intl weekend (36 markets); $10.9M intl cume (CR/SNY markets only)
Renfield (UNI): $1.3M intl weekend (50 markets); $4.3M intl cume/$18M global
Cocaine Bear (UNI): $752K intl weekend (70 markets); $21.8M intl cume/$86.1M global
Scream VI (PAR): $323K intl weekend (24 markets); $60.8M intl cume/$168.5M global

 

notable that Pope has put together a pretty good international run despite its mediocre domestic numbers. Seems like a hit given its low budget.

 

Wondering how close Air can get to $100 million worldwide. There are very few big R rated openers for a while now, which ought to benefit it (alongside John Wick and Evil Dead).

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, elcaballero said:

Translation: whoa, the Chinese box office is huge.

 

China is not the only country in Asia. Shinkai is very shrewd when it comes to promoting his movies outside of Japan unlike other anime directors and keeps visiting not just the usual markets like SK but also often neglected regions like India as part of his promotional tours.