GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, PrinceRico said:

Don’t think any opening below 130 will be good. At this point opening weekend is a lost cause. Best we can hope for is a good hold before Fast X hits.

Any OW under 170M isn´t good since it´s a fall from Vol 2

 

With that said, we also have to be fair about context ... 120-ish would be decent considering this could easily turn the other way and opened with 90 - 100M

[GOGODanca]

It's a shame, this movie if it had come out  a year earlier would probably be looking at 175m OW and now through no fault of its own has to settle for ~120

[raegr]

 

5 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

It's a shame, this movie if it had come out  a year earlier would probably be looking at 175m OW and now through no fault of its own has to settle for ~120

This was incredible. If this swapped with MoM or even Thor, it would have definitely crossed 200M imo. I think some of the other movies did a lot of damage, but I feel like this and a good Marvels movie will turn the tide

[screambaby]

Anyone want to venture a guess  for mario this weekend? 20-25 million?

[PlatnumRoyce]

I'm just fascinated to see what posttrak says <12 audience score is (especially if they give us a late-in-weekend score instead of just opening day). 

 

I remember argument being that MoM didn't see the expected lower kids scores but I really can imagine audience whiplash after being bravelittletoastered
 

 

[Mojoguy]

26 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Anyone want to venture a guess  for mario this weekend? 20-25 million?

33% drop would be a pipe dream for Mario this weekend, so 40% drop at $24m would be fantasic.

 

Mario can still be a great second choice these next 2 weeks with nothing but GOTG3 out.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Mojoguy

[GOGODanca]

Deadline is smoking crack

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-rocketing-to-around-14m-thursday-super-mario-bros-jumping-to-half-billion-u-s-early-box-office-1235357014/

[John Marston]

7 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Deadline is smoking crack

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-rocketing-to-around-14m-thursday-super-mario-bros-jumping-to-half-billion-u-s-early-box-office-1235357014/

 

 

well what was there early predictions for AM3/WF/Thor?

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Deadline is smoking crack

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-rocketing-to-around-14m-thursday-super-mario-bros-jumping-to-half-billion-u-s-early-box-office-1235357014/

Or Disney is paying them to give the most ridiculous numbers so tomorrow 18M will looks like a crazy increase 

[screambaby]

55 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Deadline is smoking crack

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-rocketing-to-around-14m-thursday-super-mario-bros-jumping-to-half-billion-u-s-early-box-office-1235357014/

It's in their manifesto that they lowball everything.

[Ryan Reynolds]

it will be interesting how the weekend plays out, not sure wom can add much on OW, too many people have become sour on the mcu to see an immediate boost.

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

It's a shame, this movie if it had come out  a year earlier would probably be looking at 175m OW and now through no fault of its own has to settle for ~120

 

2 hours ago, raegr said:

 

This was incredible. If this swapped with MoM or even Thor, it would have definitely crossed 200M imo. I think some of the other movies did a lot of damage, but I feel like this and a good Marvels movie will turn the tide

 

All of this is based on what exactly? GotG2 was nowhere as beloved to warrant such an increase.

 

Now admittedly neither was AMatW but at least Ant-Man was one of the biggest heroes of Endgame and it had Kang going for it. Star-Lord was a fail in the Infinity movies. IW did a lot of damage to the character's popularity even before Pratt's antics.

 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

 

All of this is based on what exactly? GotG2 was nowhere as beloved to warrant such an increase.

 

Now admittedly neither was AMatW but at least Ant-Man was one of the biggest heroes of Endgame and it had Kang going for it. Star-Lord was a fail in the Infinity movies. IW did a lot of damage to the character's popularity even before Pratt's antics.

 

 

Pratt had NO controversies , only fake ones the internet created .

[screambaby]

Nort really feeling the positivity . Call the new day!

Edited May 5, 2023 by screambaby

[WrathOfHan]

This is going to have great WOM and maybe better legs than the second based on my showing. The audience score is already at 96% on RT with 500+ ratings.

[scytheavatar]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

With that said, we also have to be fair about context ... 120-ish would be decent considering this could easily turn the other way and opened with 90 - 100M

 

That's like saying losing 1-5 in soccer is decent considering you could have lost 0-5...........

[WorkingonaName]

This is like if Italy made it to the world cup and lost in the group stage. 

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

 

That's like saying losing 1-5 in soccer is decent considering you could have lost 0-5...........

No it´s not the same ... with 90M OW [along the bad projections OS] the movie would probably die with 600M WW or less and lose money

 

With the numbers i mentioned, it can still be profitable despite not being as good as it could 

 

We´re not comparing isolated numbers here like in a game, this doesn´t even make sense

[ThomasNicole]

Holding at 96% audience score, 4.7 / 5 average, really strong

 

Previews is what it is, and FRI will just follow it ... now let´s see if WOM can boost SAT / SUN 

 

 

 

 

[ShadowWeegee]

it does make sense. The point was that expectations have been lowered so much that a film dropping $25M from its predecessor’s opening weekend despite ticket inflation is now seen as “decent.”

 

This forum would have called $120M an outright poor number until tracking made it look like it could be even worse.

 

The sports analogies being used are to illustrate that just because you’re way below expectations, climbing back up to merely below expectations is still a disappointment.