GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

350M domestic would mean a 3× multiplier. Would be amazing if GOTG III managed to do that.

 

 

 

I just can't see it. Why would GOTG 3 have a better multiple than pretty much any other MCU Sequel and even many MCU origin movies?

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Sony was about to go into production on Venom 3, but I'm guessing that the writers strike will slow that down. With Joker 2 being a planned fall release (along with plans for MCU Blade and Deadpool 3), I could see Sony aiming to get that out in the summer instead of their usual fall strategy. Their only superhero competition would be Thunderbolts.

 

But, they'll have to get production on track soon.

 

I forgot about VENOM III. That must be it.

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

I just can't see it. Why would GOTG 3 have a better multiple than pretty much any other MCU Sequel and even many MCU origin movies?

 

I'll wait for the second weekend drop. But I think hitting 300M is the target.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Most of what they've put out this year to date is schlock that would've fared poorly at any time. They have a big summer coming up full of movies that have different levels of actual potential (Spider-Man, No Hard Feelings, Insidious, Gran Turismo, Equalizer 3).

I get that, but that doesn’t change what I said and the fact that Sony have had a horrendous first 5 months of the year. 
 

An expected bomb is still a bomb. They still spent money making, releasing and advertising all of them. 
 

(most of their remaining output for 2023 doesn’t look too good either)

Edited May 7, 2023 by Krissykins

[CaptNathanBrittles]

GOTG3 would need NWH sized legs to get $350m. That ain't happening!

[Firepower]

15 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

350M domestic would mean a 3× multiplier. Would be amazing if GOTG III managed to do that.

850M would be a big success actually, but I can't see this kind of staying power, 700+ seems more likely.

[Krissykins]

Glad international territories seem to be making up for the drop for GOTG3 domestically. Also not surprised at those glowing audience scores and polls. 
 

Such a great film, it deserves to do well. 
 

Excellent for Evil Dead Rise. 

[Valonqar]

19 minutes ago, John Marston said:

WF didn't have good legs because it was "depressing"? Come on. It's not like one of the highest grossing films of all time is a movie where hundreds of people die in a shipwreck and the main male lead freezes to death. 

 

This. 

 

It's weird that whenever the subject of WF drop is brought up we get hot takes. It isn't the only movie where someone died. F&F lost one of 2 leads (Walker). TDK lost its most popular villain (Ledger). It isn't the only depressing superhero movie either. Joker, anyone? TDK ended on a downer, TDKR was depressing until the very end. IW ended on a downer too. Yet they all did much better because they had more engaging stories. WF tried to be a tribute to Boseman, a pilot for Iron Heart and Midnight Angels shows, and the Oscar contender (somethign something colonialism). Just tell a freakin story. 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Valonqar

[vafrow]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I get that, but that doesn’t change what I said and the fact that Sony have had a horrendous first 5 months of the year. 
 

An expected bomb is still a bomb. They still spent money making, releasing and advertising all of them. 
 

(most of their remaining output for 2023 doesn’t look too good either)

 

If Ghostbusters gets shifted to 2024, I think there's a chance that Sony lands behind Lionsgate this year. Snakes and Songbirds seems like a big wildcard.

 

Sony is in a pretty bad place.

[Willowra]

James Gunn's secret is very good writing & high budget. If Marvel wants to compete with James Gunn's DCU, they need to improve their writing department. Marvel at current state won't be able to compete with JG's new DCU.

[kayumanggi]

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I get that, but that doesn’t change what I said and the fact that Sony have had a horrendous first 5 months of the year. 
 

An expected bomb is still a bomb. They still spent money making, releasing and advertising all of them. 
 

(most of their remaining output for 2023 doesn’t look too good either)

 

The rest of Sony's slate this year (all dates are Friday): 

 

05.12 KNIGHTS OF THE ZODIAC

05.26 THE MACHINE

06.02 SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

06.23 NO HARD FEELINGS

06.30 HAROLD AND THE PURPLE CRAYON

08.11 GRAN TURISMO

08.25 THEY LISTEN

09.01 THE EQUALIZER III

09.22 THE BOOK OF CLARENCE

10.06 KRAVEN THE HUNTER

10.20 DUMB MONEY

11.10 JOURNEY TO BETLEHEM

11.17 THANKSGIVING

11.24 NAPOLEON

12.15 ANYONE BUT YOU

12.22 GHOSTBUSTERS SEQUEL

 

HAROLD AND THE PURPLE CRAYON will probably move. I'm also not sure if the GHOSTBUSTERS SEQUEL will make that date.

 

I can see some potential hits apart from ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE. I think NO HARD FEELINGS and ANYONE BUT YOU will do well. KRAVEN THE HUNTER is a wildcard.

[filmlover]

32 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I get that, but that doesn’t change what I said and the fact that Sony have had a horrendous first 5 months of the year. 
 

An expected bomb is still a bomb. They still spent money making, releasing and advertising all of them. 
 

(most of their remaining output for 2023 doesn’t look too good either)

I have a feeling Sony's not really going to lose much themselves on these duds (and that their producers will really be the ones with the red pen) given how little they pushed them. Their remainder of the year seems low on guaranteed hits aside from Spider-Man (especially since Ghostbusters is probably headed to '24 depending on how long the WGA strike lasts and how big the production backlog is), but they also have nothing that sounds especially expensive and with potential to cause mass write-offs either.

[Deep Wang]

15 minutes ago, Willowra said:

James Gunn's secret is very good writing & high budget. If Marvel wants to compete with James Gunn's DCU, they need to improve their writing department. Marvel at current state won't be able to compete with JG's new DCU.

 

Everyone likes to blame the writing first and I'm not saying better writing wouldn't hurt, but they are only part of the process.  

 

I promise the writer of Quantumania didn't approve the design for MODOK, ya know?  

[Willowra]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Everyone likes to blame the writing first and I'm not saying better writing wouldn't hurt, but they are only part of the process.  

 

I promise the writer of Quantumania didn't approve the design for MODOK, ya know?  

I said his secret is both good writing & big budget. If the budget is big then you can improve CGI/VFX.

Edited May 7, 2023 by Willowra

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

As much as I'd like to see 350 DOM + 500 OS, I don't believe either is tangible. Both of those numbers would essentially require NWH level legs, without an A+ Cinemascore or the holidays or weak competition. 

 

My targets are 300 + 440.

[juanw]

 nvm

Edited May 7, 2023 by juanw

[Barbie]

that piranka woman is just  commercial poison

 

i wonder if ari aster predicted beau would bomb like this and didnt care?

Edited May 7, 2023 by Barbie

[Jonwo]

26 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I get that, but that doesn’t change what I said and the fact that Sony have had a horrendous first 5 months of the year. 
 

An expected bomb is still a bomb. They still spent money making, releasing and advertising all of them. 
 

(most of their remaining output for 2023 doesn’t look too good either)

A Man Called Otto was a modest hit but Sony seems to betting on Spider-Verse and Kraven to be their big hitters for this year.

 

I wonder if Sony may end adjusting their 2024 film slate, I think Beyond The Spider-Verse will probably end up in the summer replacing either Karate Kid, Garfield or the untitled Spider-Man Universe film that is in July 2024. Ghostbusters could be a March 2024 release or June 2024. 

 

 

[DisposedData]

Empire thinks it is only dropping 15% on Sunday 

[MovieMan89]

Terrible for GotG under the context of what the first two did and how good WOM seems to be. Was this headed to sub 100 OW if the WOM hadn’t been there? Probably. If anyone needed true proof of MCU being hurt, this is definitely it. I think higher than 2.5-2.6x would be extremely hard given the nature of the movie and the calendar, but we’ll see.  
 

Bad for Mario. Hope it gets a bit closer to -50% for actuals at least. Otherwise I’m worried about I2 for the first time. Still think 600 is more likely than not. I’ve never seen a movie breakout like this in its first month and then fall off a cliff, so there’s no reason to not think this isn’t a big anomaly in its run. Definitely expect course correcting the next two weekends.