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kayumanggi

2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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Depending on how long the WGA strike lasts, we're bound to see quite a shakeup of the 2024 schedule. Ghostbusters is likely going to end up next year since 9 months for such a CGI heavy project (it began filming mid-March and is set to open around Christmas) already seems like an insane turnaround. But even beyond that there's a lot dates that won't stick. Memorial Day weekend in particular (one of either Furiosa or Planet of the Apes + Garfield would be fine opening together since they would be counterprogramming against each other but no way those 3 and Imaginary Friends open together like currently planned). We'll see which one of Despicable Me 4 or Lion King 2 blinks first (since Sonic 3 might be held up by the strike - it's clearly not filming soon - and Universal has enjoyed animated success around Christmas in recent years, it might not be a bad choice to counterprogram Despicable Me against Avatar). The strike might end up a blessing in disguise for the release schedule when all is said and done.

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2024 wayyyyy too early top 10:

  1. Avatar: The Seed Bearer - 155m/630m
  2. Deadpool and Wolverine - 150m/390m
  3. Inside Out 2 - 110m/385m
  4. Despicable Me 4 - 105m/375m 
  5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part Two - 115m/330m
  6. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse: 105m/325m
  7. Gladiator 2 - 100m/300m
  8. Joker: Folie a Duex - 120m/280m
  9. Captain America: New World Order - 90m/240m
  10. Mufasa: The Lion King - 75m/230m

 

If my theory is correct

- Zootopia 2 in 2024: 130m five day/410m

- Betting the breakout of the year is either IF or Elio at 250m

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1. Avatar: The Seed Bearer: $1.8B

2. Joker 2: $1B

3. Mi8:  $850M 

4. Deadpool 3: $800M

5. Wicked: $800M

6. Inside Out 2: $800M

7. Godzilla X Kong: $750M

8. Despicable Me 4: $750M

9. Mufasa: $700M

10. Beyond the Spider-verse: $700M

 

I think people are underestimating Wicked, the Last Oz movie made half a billion and literally no one cared about.  

Edited by WorkingonaName
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Just now, Mr Roark said:

Avatar 3 will easily break the $2B mark, again.

 

The Seed Bearer is not the title, yet at least…

 

I think Avatar 3 could even increase from the second. The scale of it is supposed to be even more amazing, plus hopefully China will have no impediments to the run next time.

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RELEASE SCHEDULE BY MAJOR STUDIOS

 

DISNEY

03.01 | ELIO

03.22 | SNOW WHITE

05.03 | CAPTAIN AMERICA: NEW WORLD ORDER

05.24 | KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

06.14 | INSIDE OUT II

07.05 | MUFASA: THE LION KING

07.26 | THUNDERBOLTS

08.16 | UNTITLED DISNEY FILM

09.06 | BLADE

11.01 | DEADPOOL III

11.29 | UNTITLED DISNEY ANIMATED FILM

12.20 | AVATAR III

 

SONY

01.12 | EL MUERTO

02.09 | IT ENDS WITH US

02.16 | MADAME WEB

03.29 | SPIDER-MAN: BEYOND THE SPIDER-VERSE

05.24 | GARFIELD

06.07 | KARATE KID

07.12 | UNTITLED SONY MARVEL FILM

08.23 | UNTITLED KENDRICK BROTHERS FILM

 

PARAMOUNT

01.12 | BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE

01.19 | THE TIGER'S APPRENTICE

03.08 | A QUIET PLACE: DAY ONE

05.24 | IF

06.28 | MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING II

07.19 | TRANSFORMERS ONE

11.22 | GLADIATOR II

12.27 | SONIC THE HEDGEHOG III

 

UNIVERSAL

01.05 | NIGHT SWIM

01.12 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

02.09 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL ANIMATED EVENT FILM

02.16 UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

03.01 | THE FALL GUY

03.08 | KUNG FU PANDA IV

03.22 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL ANIMATED EVENT FILM

03.29 UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

04.05 | UNTITLED M. NIGHT SHYAMALAN THRILLER

04.19 | UNTITLED MONSTER THRILLER

05.10 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

06.21 | UNTITLED UNIVERSAL EVENT FILM

07.05 | DESPICABLE ME IV

07.19 | TWISTERS

08.09 | SPEAK NO EVIL

09.13 | UNTITLED BLUMHOUSE PRODUCTIONS FILM

09.27 | UNTITLED MONKEYPAW HORROR FILM

10.18 | UNTITLED BLUMHOUSE PRODUCTIONS FILM

11.29 WICKED I

12.27 UNTITLED JORDAN PEELE FOURTH FILM

 

WARNER BROS.

01.12 | UNTITLED WARNER BROS. EVENT FILM

02.02 | WISE GUYS

03.15 | GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE

03.29 MICKEY 17

04.12 | THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM

05.24 | FURIOSA

06.07 | THE WATCHERS

08.02 | TRAP

10.04 | JOKER: FOLIE Á DEUX

 

LIONSGATE

02.09 | UNTITLED DIRTY DANCING PROJECT

06.07 | BALLERINA

 

*wide releases only / dates are all Friday

Edited by kayumanggi
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8 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

1. Avatar: The Seed Bearer: $1.8B

2. Joker 2: $1B

3. Mi8:  $850M 

4. Deadpool 3: $800M

5. Wicked: $800M

6. Inside Out 2: $800M

7. Godzilla X Kong: $750M

8. Despicable Me 4: $750M

9. Mufasa: $700M

10. Beyond the Spider-verse: $700M

 

I think people are underestimating Wicked, the Last Oz movie made half a billion and literally no one cared about.  

Yeah Wicked is a real possibility of a breakout too. The question is how does the part one/two thing play out.

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3 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

So Universal is just gonna release 2 movies a month next year

 

I bet that March 22 date was their original choice for KUNG FU PANDA IV and that March 29 was supposedly for the UNTITLED SHYAMALAN FILM.

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Even without delays the 2024 slate would have been utterly anemic from a box office point of view (Avatar the only guaranteed >$1b worldwide grosser). If the biggest hitters move to 2025, then yeah, might as well keep a sabbatical.

Edited by Marathon
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1 hour ago, Eric 2099 said:

 

Saw this tweet a few days ago, and now knowing that Beyond the Spider-Verse isn't even close to ready...next year's gonna be 2021 levels of barren. One step forward, two steps back kind of stuff.

What is "PTA"?

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