Weekdays (8-11 May, 2023) Thread.

[ThomasNicole]

The idea of something that will sell 10M and probably only 1% of that will be people that won’t take 3 hours of 1 entire weekend to watch something else if they really want to and because of that box office will be lower seems funny to me 

 

But i liked the excuse if somehow the drop is bigger than 54% i will say loudly that is Zelda fault 

Edited May 11, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ChipDerby]

35 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Tbeh the only reason I feel like it got brought up is said person who brought it up seems to really really want GoTG Vol 3 to not have good legs I guess.

 

The only reason it got brought up is because I started the Zelda thread and posted it in the Classic Convo thread  essentially bringing it to top of mind.

 

Will it have an effect, probably not! But I think it would be silly to say definitively that it won't. Yeah sure it will sell to only 10-15 million people, but that number could be multiples higher due to that including families, etc. That 20+ mil people can easily put off seeing a movie for a weekend, for a huge game.

 

But yeah, it will probably not be a noticeable drop for anything.

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You have to remember what Breath of the Wild has done in the industry. Consider it has sold more copies than ANY Pokémon game ever, aka the most successful media franchise of all time. This is a direct sequel to Breath of the Wild and they have been very clear to market that. It’s not just another Zelda game. It is also currently one of the best reviewed games of all time, just like its predecessor, so there’s that too. 

Not more than the OG Pokémon games. Besides with S/S at ~26m in about 3.25 years and S/V at 22m pre DLC in like 5 months, it’s plausible S/V could catch up to BOTW.

Edited May 11, 2023 by YM!

[ringedmortality]

10 million people buying Zelda equates to like 125 million opening weekend in movie ticket prices doesn't it

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

The only reason it got brought up is because I started the Zelda thread and posted it in the Classic Convo thread  essentially bringing it to top of mind.

 

Will it have an effect, probably not! But I think it would be silly to say definitively that it won't. Yeah sure it will sell to only 10-15 million people, but that number could be multiples higher due to that including families, etc. That 20+ mil people can easily put off seeing a movie for a weekend, for a huge game.

 

But yeah, it will probably not be a noticeable drop for anything.

Not going to reiterate the multiple points here as to why the chance of it is negligible at best. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

10 million people buying Zelda equates to like 125 million opening weekend in movie ticket prices doesn't it

It does, but 10M people gaming isn’t necessarily the same 10M that goes to a theater and watch a big movie

 

You surely can find some people between groups but enough to make much different? Seems like a stretch tbh  

 

Even then, people can play games and watch movies during the weekend 

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

It does, but 10M people gaming isn’t necessarily the same 10M that goes to a theater and watch a big movie

 

You surely can find some people between groups but enough to make much different? Seems like a stretch tbh  

 

Even then, people can play games and watch movies during the weekend 

 

That wasn't really a point in terms of it affecting the box office, I just wanted to see the equivalent,

 

Though Zelda is more of a solitary game so there probably wouldn't be a lot of groups in between that.

[screambaby]

Imagine how much Beverly hills cop and Ghostbusters would have made if parents weren't waiting in line  buying cabbage patch dolls

Edited May 11, 2023 by screambaby

[DC Rich]

Just now, screambaby said:

Imagine how much Beverly hills cop and Ghostbusters would have made if parents weren't waiting in liklne buying cabbage patch dolls

 

[fabiopazzo2]

18 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It does, but 10M people gaming isn’t necessarily the same 10M that goes to a theater and watch a big movie

 

You surely can find some people between groups but enough to make much different? Seems like a stretch tbh  

 

Even then, people can play games and watch movies during the weekend 

This

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

39 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

The funniest thing from the old days somebody on box office mojo made a whole thread to discuss the LOST finale's impact on the box office that weekend. feel like this stuff is always just brought up by fanboys who wanna talk about their thing.

Speaking of TV in the aughts, there was a stretch when the American Idol season finale would weaken the weekday box office once a year. The finale of the most watched season (2006) pulled 36 million viewers. That was a live event, so more akin to sports than something that can be consumed at any point in the weekend. 

 

 

We've seen movies have a strong first week, then not hold well in the second weekend, without a big video game release to blame. We never really know the reason unless Variety/Deadline/etc publishes polling about it, like they did with the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight.

[MovieMan89]

23 minutes ago, YM! said:

Not more than the OG Pokémon games. Besides with S/S at ~26m in about 3.25 years and S/V at 22m pre DLC in like 5 months, it’s plausible S/V could catch up to BOTW.

It passed Red/Blue with the most recent sales update. About 31.5m vs about 31.3m for Red/Blue. And BOTW would already be ahead of that last update number anyways. Also, S/V is very likely near done selling if you look at the history of recent Pokémon sales and how frontloaded they’ve become. They have almost no longevity (S/V terrible reception won’t help there either). 

[ChipDerby]

26 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Not going to reiterate the multiple points here as to why the chance of it is negligible at best. 

 

Then why did you respond when you could've just read what I wrote.

[Mulder]

Just now, ChipDerby said:

 

Then why did you respond when you could've just read what I wrote.

I did read and that was my response, because everything you said was literally talked about earlier. My original post wasn't even really referring to you (I had no idea that the Classic Conversation thread might've led to this discussion).

[keysersoze123]

Are folks expecting Vol 3 to increase like Vol 2. I think that is highly improbable. Looking at saturday to monday drop, Vol2 dropped slightly under 81% while Vol3 dropped slightly over 77%. I expect increase to be lower when it drops less. But let us wait and see. Quick look at presales for tomorrow also indicate smaller increase relative to today. This is not a Maverick or a Mario kind of movie to expand its base. MCU movies are predictable for a reason. 

[MovieMan89]

The idea that Zelda wouldnt have big overlap with the audience GotG is targeted at seems pretty silly. The only exception would be the older audience that GotG appeals to who likely don’t play games. But GotG is not an age 45+ driven movie. The argument against it not affecting box office is that people will play it and still go to a movie. Entirely possible: But also maybe not given how time consuming games are (especially 100+hr games like this one)  if people are devoting the weekend to this before work 

[DisposedData]

1 hour ago, I Am Eric said:

I mean it's more like Coolio said where it's probably just people being nerdy and hyping up the thing they are looking forward to. Which I mean...hey! I'm nerdy. I like to hype up things I like. I empathize with those sentiments.

Eh no. Tears of the Kingdom is absolutely going to be massive and is definitely one of the biggest media events of the year. I wont say the biggest like the user that brought it up though and I still doubt it is going to have an impact on the box office, it's still no Grand Theft Auto V or The Long night from Game of Thrones and if those didn't have an impact, this certainly wont.

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are folks expecting Vol 3 to increase like Vol 2. I think that is highly improbable. Looking at saturday to monday drop, Vol2 dropped slightly under 81% while Vol3 dropped slightly over 77%. I expect increase to be lower when it drops less. But let us wait and see. Quick look at presales for tomorrow also indicate smaller increase relative to today. This is not a Maverick or a Mario kind of movie to expand its base. MCU movies are predictable for a reason. 

What increase are you thinking? 
 

I was hoping for 120-125 (vs 112 for MOM and 132 for GOTG2)

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Eh no. Tears of the Kingdom is absolutely going to be massive and is definitely one of the biggest media events of the year. I wont say the biggest like the user that brought it up though and I still doubt it is going to have an impact on the box office, it's still no Grand Theft Auto V or The Long night from Game of Thrones and if those didn't have an impact, this certainly wont.

If it doesn’t beat GTA Vs opening sales, it will come very very close. Again, whether or not this stuff affects box office is pretty hard to say definitively. 

[dobrevv]

6,75 thursday according to empirecity