THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[ogkalu]

15 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

What percentage of the US audience is typically white?

 

Minorities make up a significant share. So theorically if certain whites avoided a movie it could still thrive.

 For ticket sales over a year, it averages out to Caucasians - 55% , Latinos - 23%, African-Americans -12% , Asians -7%

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/latino-asian-moviegoers-mpaa-study-1202743713/

 

By white i really just meant not black. Not like you should expect all minorities to feel represented with a black lead.  Simply thriving is quite a different story from a 130-140 4 day (or possibly more, depending on how Sat turns out)

 

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by ogkalu

[JohnCarterofEarth]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

What percentage of the US audience is typically white?

 

Minorities make up a significant share. So theorically if certain whites avoided a movie it could still thrive.

They are like 60% of the entire population so good luck making a profit off a big studio movie if you alienate more than half the country. Not saying Little Mermaid doing that at all just arguing with your specific point. 

[Kon]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

What percentage of the US audience is typically white?

 

Minorities make up a significant share. So theorically if certain whites avoided a movie it could still thrive.

 

However, not all minorities will feel represented in a black lead movie.

Edited May 27, 2023 by Kon

[Deathlife]

1 hour ago, ogkalu said:

I'm not saying representation can't boost titles.

 

If most of the white audience in the US who were going to see the little mermaid decided not to because of the race swap then the weekend would be nowhere near what it is shaping up to currently. Is the black population in the US sizable ? Sure. Is it big enough to charge this kind of opening if most white people said "No thanks" ? Not even close. 

 

The problem now is that what i've just said about the US, I can't say about a big chunk of international territories(not all). In some territories, the majority of people who would have gone if she were white are not showing up. and you can't really pile this on just over/under indexing either. Why would territories that don't have notable white or black populations under index strongly (compared to white leads) ?

 

It doesn't work like this in the US.  Every movie has a % of every major ethnicity. Black people can over index a movie and make it a massive hit. 

 

BP:WF had a 44% black demo in its opening weekend and white people just 20%. Hispanic/Latino (another huge demo) was 21% and this was enough to open it to $180 m+. 

 

So, even if white people don't turn up for the movie in droves (like with BP:WF), there's enough diversity in the population to open a black-led movie to massive numbers.

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by Deathlife

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, JohnCarterofEarth said:

They are like 60% of the entire population so good luck making a profit off a big studio movie if you alienate more than half the country. Not saying Little Mermaid doing that at all just arguing with your specific point. 

 

You ever see the demographic breakdown for movies where the white audience is anywhere close to 60%?

 

I'm talking about tent poles. They're typically under 45%.

 

Also I don't think Black Panther was popular with the Fox News crowd. Still made 700m domestic. 

[grey ghost]

12 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

However, not all minorities will feel represented in a black lead movie.

 

As far as I can tell it's not a dealbreaker either.

 

At least for Asian and Latino Americans.

[ringedmortality]

Man if only those international numbers were as good as its domestic number. Probably would be the summer winner.

[ogkalu]

15 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

 

It doesn't work like this in the US.  Every movie has a % of every major ethnicity. Black people can over index a movie and make it a massive hit. 

 

BP:WF had a 44% black demo in its opening weekend and white people just 20%. Hispanic/Latino (another huge demo) was 21% and this was enough to open it to $180 m+. 

 

So, even if white people don't turn up for the movie in droves (like with BP:WF), there's enough diversity in the population to open a black-led movie to massive numbers.

 

 

I'm not sure why you think non black minorities count here. There's no reason to think other minorities would feel "represented". and in fact, the other minority turn outs are pretty much very close to average. 

I guess it's my bad for saying white taken to mean caucasian when i really meant not black. If every other ethnicity showing under-indexed the way caucasians did then it would not in fact be able to manage a huge opening, which is more or less the point.

Edited May 27, 2023 by ogkalu

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

I have a feeling that Deadline's numbers are a bit too high.

The truth is that there are no reliable comps for this one beacause:

1) it is aimed at kids but is also overlong and quite "violent" at times; besides there are many moviegoers who are actually well into adulthood but nostalgic who have reserved a fair share of seats. This makes it harder to consider the preview number in the same way any other family movie would be.

2) it skews almost exclusively female: unlike BATB, Aladdin, TLK,  TLM has been overused in merchandising, toys etc... as a "girls only" property. It's much more akin to Cinderella than Aladdin or Maleficent, but Cinderella was at the very start of the live action craze and naturally wouldn't be as front-loaded.

3) It has that whole "much talked-maligned about" movie going for it, that usually pushes people to rush to the cinemas as soon as it opens, may it be for the sake of supporting a black led movie or just out of curiosity.

 

Because of these factors, I just can't see a 12x Previews memorial weekend happen. I'm confident that this will go way lower than expected on sat, sun and monday.

 

The way I see it, this ends up with a 90 M 3 days and about 110-115 M 4 days, just behind Aladdin.

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[dudalb]

39 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What's everyone's top 3 WDAS soundtracks.

 

1) Aladdin

2) Moana

3) Jungle Book (1967)

 

Let's divide it into Golden and Renassiance eras of WDAS:

 

Golden Agel

1. Pinnochio

2.Snow White

3.Cinderella

 

Renassiance:

1.Beauty and the Beast.

2. Aladdin

3.Little Mermaid.

 

Though i could argue that the Orginal Fantasia had the best music of any  WDAS film..but none of it , of course, was original. Sort of hard to beat Beethovan, Tchaikovsky, and Bach.

Edited May 27, 2023 by dudalb

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

 

It doesn't work like this in the US.  Every movie has a % of every major ethnicity. Black people can over index a movie and make it a massive hit. 

 

BP:WF had a 44% black demo in its opening weekend and white people just 20%. Hispanic/Latino (another huge demo) was 21% and this was enough to open it to $180 m+. 

 

So, even if white people don't turn up for the movie in droves (like with BP:WF), there's enough diversity in the population to open a black-led movie to massive numbers.

 

 

Hollywood Reporter BP:WF opening weekend at  34% B/ 31% W / 21% L / 15% A/O 

 

Which is closer to BPs' s 4 week demo courtesy of the annual MPAA report of 35% B/ 36% W/ 18% L/ 6%A /5% NA/Other

 

 

[Deathlife]

4 minutes ago, ogkalu said:

 

I'm not sure why you think non black minorities count here. There's no reason to think other minorities would feel "represented". and in fact, the other minority turn outs are pretty much very close to average. 

I guess it's my bad for saying white taken to mean caucasian when i really meant not black. If every other ethnicity showing under-indexed the way caucasians did then it would not in fact be able to manage a huge opening, which is more or less the point.

 

Then the point is non-existent because there's no way ONLY ONE demographic will show up to see a blockbuster American film.

[CJohn]

At this point I am gonna say Little Mermaid wins DOM, Cruise Misssile wins OS and GotG3 wins WW.

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

You ever see the demographic breakdown for movies where the white audience is anywhere close to 60%?

 

I'm talking about tent poles. They're typically under 45%.

 

Also I don't think Black Panther was popular with the Fox News crowd. Still made 700m domestic. 

 

Looking at the 2018 breakdown for top 5 movies right now

 

Black Panther: 36%

Avengers: IW: 48%

Incredibles: 46%

Jurassic FK: 50%

Deadpool:  54%

[filmscholar]

38?  So about 27-28 TF possible.  Here's what "Aladdin" did Four Years ago Domestically same weekend:

 

May 24	Friday	1	$31,358,935	-	-	4,476	$7,006	$31,358,935	1
May 25	Saturday	1	$30,013,295	-4.3%	-	4,476	$6,705	$61,372,230	2
May 26	Sunday	1	$30,128,699	+0.4%	-	4,476	$6,731	$91,500,929	3
May 27 Memorial Day	Monday	1	$25,305,033	-16%	-	4,476	$5,653	$116,805,962	4

 

As you can see, "Aladdin" had a pretty solid Sunday hold into Monday. Mind you there was some competition that summer of 2019.    As for us keeping our expectations guarded for this whole summer.  I think  it's just fun to have these big speculations again. 

 

With so many Big movies coming out back to back to back, we're all wondering what will be the biggest breakout.  With that said even though I brought up "Aladdin", that was a more healthier box office market.  Things have  changed over the last 3 years with streaming exploding and the pandemic.  We are starting to see more and more flashes of a return to form.  Hopefully that number holds.  

 

[JohnCarterofEarth]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

At this point I am gonna say Little Mermaid wins DOM, Cruise Misssile wins OS and GotG3 wins WW.

I think Cruise wins Worldwide.  

[ogkalu]

3 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

 

Then the point is non-existent because there's no way ONLY ONE demographic will show up to see a blockbuster American film.

 

First of all, your numbers are wrong anyway. It's 34% B/ 31% W / 21% L / 15% A/O according to HW

 

2nd it's not about only one demographic showing up. Think about it like this,

for WF, Caucasian turnout was 57% of the average. If all other demographics had those kind of turnouts then that's a much lower opening.

[cdsacken]

14 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Fun Fact: We are closer to 2050 than 1989 now.

 

Closer to 2055 as well. Damn

[baumer]

51 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

Exactly.

 

When we watched the Flash trailer, my wife was asking if we're going to see it when it comes out.

 

We watch a ton of movies but she doesn't know anything about Ezra Miller or his misdeeds. I'm using my wife as a barometer because she loves watching geek stuff with me but isn't into it as much as people like us.

 

Heck, most people don't know about the drama around the movie at all. 

 

Your wife is a perfect example of this and I'll go you one step further. I'm about three or four years removed from being a massive box office geek. And as someone who just follows everything kind of on the periphery now, I know there was some controversy with Ezra Miller but I couldn't tell you the specifics of it. And it certainly wouldn't prevent me from going to see the movie.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

37 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

You ever see the demographic breakdown for movies where the white audience is anywhere close to 60%?

 

I'm talking about tent poles. They're typically under 45%.

 

Also I don't think Black Panther was popular with the Fox News crowd. Still made 700m domestic. 

Top Gun: Maverick, at least on OW. Sometimes they do  opening day demo breakdowns and they're different from the overall weekend. Anyway, here's the report about Maverick's opening last year (Deadline) :

 

Quote

Male to female ratio continues to be at 57% to 43%. Also a majority of the audience was over 25 at 87%. Diversity demos were 60% Caucasian, 15% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, & 13% Asian/other.
 

 

I think A Man Called Otto was like 70% Caucasian when it went wide, but you'd kind of expect it from a movie like that.

 

The US population skews less white the younger you go, and regular moviegoers tend to be younger people, so the audience percentages won't align to the population in general.

Edited May 27, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl