THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[kayumanggi]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

 

That's okay for my Derby. 😁

[Kon]

24 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So what I'm understanding is that Little Mermaid would be luck to cross 700 

Yeah. It will be difficult to reach that number.

 

The issue seems to be overseas where it will likely have a low opening.

[Liiviig 1998]

TLM should go for 350-425m Dom

275-325m OS.

Spiderverse will definitely hit it next weekend . Expecting a drop of 55-60% next weekend but it then stabilizes onwards.

 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

It would be wise for you all to look at the international datas that we currently have before any absurd prediction like a billion or 800M, even.

 

This is playing more like Dumbo then Aladdin:

 

*In China, South Korea, India, Honk Kong the data is horrible. Way Worse than Dumbo's (which at least had 20 M coming from China) and not even comparable to the total 200M of Aladdin in the same markets.

*In Europe's big markets so far that's the situation:

- In Italy the first 2 days are significantly lower than Aladdin, the same as Maleficent (2014) and only slightly higher than Dumbo, which had an incredible third day jump (because it opened on a thursday)

- In France it's playing slightly above Aladdin, but Aladdin had a disastrous opening there (only 3 M) and good legs brought it to a decent total (16 M) still way below other live actions like BATB (20+ M) and TLK (75!!!M)

- In Germany it's bound to be slightly lower than Aladdin

Still no info on Spain and the Uk.

*In LATM:

Argentina: Worse than Aladdin

Brazil: seemingly better than Aalddin, we need to see if the projections hold up

Mexico: Waaayyyyy worse than Aladdin.

 

Australia: might have a strong saturday per tracking, but shouldn't surpass Aladdin.

 

In Eu+Latm it's pacing better than Dumbo, but it's much lower in Asia. 

Dumbo had 243M$ total. Little Mermaid MIGHT fare better thanks to UK+AUS+ JAPAN (though Japan seems poised to become  yet another flop market) but there is no way that brings this to more than 300M$ OS.

 

Now, even in the "miracle" scenario where this earns 400M DOM and 300M OS its WW total would get it about 700M.

But it is much more likely to end in the 550-650 M range. (i.e. a "quasi" flop given its massive budget).

Edited May 26, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[Cmasterclay]

International box office whenever a movie has a black lead one of the few times that us Americans can feel like the enlightened ones.

[Issac Newton]

The Little Mermaid

 

North America FRI without Previews will be bigger than Asia OW

 

&

 

North America FRI including Previews will be bigger than Asia Lifetime

[GambitPool]

29 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

I saw this trailer with every film for 2 months straight and then it just stopped lol. Even my theater seems tired of attaching it lol. 

[ringedmortality]

11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

International box office whenever a movie has a black lead one of the few times that us Americans can feel like the enlightened ones.

 

Generally speaking, "wokeness" is mostly an American thing.

[Royce]

The lack of a globally recognized celebrity is definitely a weakness.

 

Maleficent without Angelina would've performed lower than Cinderella. Aladdin had Will, Beauty had Emma W. and Alice in Wonderland had Johnny Depp. TLK and JB had the "photorealistic CGI" gimmick.

 

Now I wonder what the hype and numbers would be like if the rumors became true and Zendaya and Harry Styles really played the lead roles.

[Eric Dylan]

46 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

I got the trailer for this before Return of the Jedi and was befuddled at seeing something so 2005-ish. Right down to having Robert De Niro. I'm sure this was what he wanted to do,but his run of Meet the Parents wannabees during that time was kind of embarassing.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Margaret Qualley can be my dominatrix any day. Take my money. Call me a slut. All of those things.

I agree.

[ringedmortality]

10 minutes ago, Royce said:

Now I wonder what the hype and numbers would be like if the rumors became true and Zendaya and Harry Styles really played the lead roles.

 

Didn't Marshall confirm that they did approach Styles but he turned it down? Even just him in that role would have helped a lot.

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Now, even in the "miracle" scenario where this earns 400M DOM and 300M OS its WW total would get it about 700M.

But it is much more likely to end in the 550-650 M range. (i.e. a "quasi" flop given its massive budget).

I think it will do $625M+ WW, which will give DIS $75M+ theatrical revenue surplus over its budget. so need not worry about it flopping.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

14 minutes ago, Royce said:

The lack of a globally recognized celebrity is definitely a weakness.

 

Maleficent without Angelina would've performed lower than Cinderella. Aladdin had Will, Beauty had Emma W. and Alice in Wonderland had Johnny Depp. TLK and JB had the "photorealistic CGI" gimmick.

 

Now I wonder what the hype and numbers would be like if the rumors became true and Zendaya and Harry Styles really played the lead roles.

 

As I said in another post, the lack of stars is indeed one of the reasons of the underperformance of this movie at the international B.O.

People here don't care about the singing abilities of an actor, since it gets dubbed by a good singer anyway; they care about the acting bits and wait for a famous actor to play the iconic role. People couldn't care less that Emma Watson wasn't a great singer, they wanted to see Hermione play Belle ever since that ball scene in HP:GOF.

I'm pretty sure that Zendaya+ Harry would have brought way more people in.

Edited May 26, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

International box office whenever a movie has a black lead one of the few times that us Americans can feel like the enlightened ones.

its more like America has a significant black population. the areas with less black population under index in America as well. East coast overindex for black lead films. the other region with high black population is Africa & that doesn't really matter much at box office. 

West & Canada underindex. 

Similarly Chinese lead films overindex in Canada.

Edited May 26, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Marathon]

The DOM/OS ratio will make this seem like a faith-based movie about a NASCAR driver.

[grey ghost]

Waiting for the demographic breakdown for TLM...

 

[robertman2]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Haha get fucked!

Never have to see that awful trailer again

[WorkingonaName]

To be a fly on the wall at Disney HQ on monday. 

[grim22]

People always seem to get confused when a Hollywood musical flops in India because they think all Bollywood movies are musicals so musicals should do well in India. But Indians do not like Hollywood musicals, songs in Indian movies are a break from the narrative or emphasize something in the narrative but for the most part are non-essential to the movie. Songs which are actually the plot sung through is not our idea of musicals.