THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[jedijake]

Under $100 million 3-day? Wow! Never expected that.

 

If the IM from previews is meh, can we really expect the overall multiplier to be much more than, say, 3.2?

 

[SchumacherFTW]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

I think the point they are making is that if a movie misses the weekend due to nice weather, next weekend is going to have another opener so people may rush to see that instead of catch up with the holdover. 

We've got school holidays here for the next week, that'll mitigate some of it. It's also dead in PLF so losing them to spiderman won't make a difference. This movie is far from dead in the UK. 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

I think the point they are making is that if a movie misses the weekend due to nice weather, next weekend is going to have another opener so people may rush to see that instead of catch up with the holdover. 

 

Indeed. Also, these movies have a very strong built in fanbase, so it's quite worrisome that we are already seeing such a low increase for the weekend in EU. Many movies are coming in the next weeks, the legs won't be good. Also, in places like Italy, the box office diminishes the further Summer goes, as people rush to the beaches here and cinema season basically ends in early June.

Edited May 28, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[wildphantom]

13 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Nope, you can't use the UK as an example, movies can't compete with the first really nice weather of the year. It's consistent every year, once the weather improves the box office suffers across northern Europe. 

definitely. Schools are off all week though so it’ll make up for the weekend I would imagine. I was surprised at how empty it felt Friday night when I went though. 

[wildphantom]

8 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

We've got school holidays here for the next week, that'll mitigate some of it. It's also dead in PLF so losing them to spiderman won't make a difference. This movie is far from dead in the UK. 

hah, saw this after I wrote pretty much the same thing! 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

definitely. Schools are off all week though so it’ll make up for the weekend I would imagine. I was surprised at how empty it felt Friday night when I went though. 

Bank Holiday tomorrow as well. 

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

hah, saw this after I wrote pretty much the same thing! 

Great minds think alike and all that jazz

[jedijake]

Any chance we could actually see an increase today and tomorrow for TLM? I know it would be unprecedented, but I am just wondering if it could muster up enough to touch $100 million for the 3-day and over $125m for the 4-day.

[Liiviig 1998]

This couldn't have gotten a better comp now than  Aladdin  they  already matching each other in  dialies and will probably

Match it or be close  on memorial day too.

 

Overall think Aladdin will be our litmus test if it looses it in dialies and total probably sub 350m.  If it continues matching it or staying ahead then 355m+

[Liiviig 1998]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Any chance we could actually see an increase today and tomorrow for TLM? I know it would be unprecedented, but I am just wondering if it could muster up enough to touch $100 million for the 3-day and over $125m for the 4-day.

Needs 32m . Aladdin jumped 0.4% so expecting the same for TLM

[ShadowWeegee]

Why would you expect The Little Mermaid to follow Aladdin’s Sunday when it hasn’t followed the other days?

 

Aladdin had a better Thursday to Friday jump and a much better True Friday to Saturday increase.

 

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

What's the general rule of what the studio gets from DOM/OS/China? Is it 50%/40%/30% or more some 50%/35%/25%? At any rate, DOM is the most important so better to get to 700M~ WW with 60% coming from DOM, no?

[CJohn]

Disappointing to see TLM won't hit 100M 3 day after that OD but it is still a very strong result.

[Sckathian]

1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Nope, you can't use the UK as an example, movies can't compete with the first really nice weather of the year. It's consistent every year, once the weather improves the box office suffers across northern Europe. 

Next weekend is going to be even nicer and competition is increasing. Am not sure how that helps here.

[jedijake]

52 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Needs 32m . Aladdin jumped 0.4% so expecting the same for TLM

If it makes $30 or $31 million today, do you really think they won't fudge it and bump it to make $100 million? I can't see them posting a $98 or $99 million opening weekend. A headline like "Little Mermaid splashes to a huge $100 million opening weekend" looks a lot better than "Little Mermaid missed the century mark with $98 million". The latter would help its legs. Actuals may tell a different story than what we've seen.

 

What's interesting about this is that everyone was skeptical about using Aladdin as a comp because it was pre-pandemic. As it turns out, it was the best comp BUT, looking back, using that comp put the previews for TLM higher. So, the real question is why did sales peter out for TLM at the 11th hour before release?

Edited May 28, 2023 by jedijake

[Firepower]

So... Fast X collapses overseas as well or no?

[M37]

37 minutes ago, ShadowWeegee said:

Why would you expect The Little Mermaid to follow Aladdin’s Sunday when it hasn’t followed the other days?

 

Aladdin had a better Thursday to Friday jump and a much better True Friday to Saturday increase.

 

Thursday to Fri to Sat is more movie dependent, but once we have that Sat number in hand, Sun and beyond tend to follow more typical day/day change patterns.

 

54 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Any chance we could actually see an increase today and tomorrow for TLM? I know it would be unprecedented, but I am just wondering if it could muster up enough to touch $100 million for the 3-day and over $125m for the 4-day.

Black led films tend to over-perform on Sundays relative to baseline, but with the holiday already boosting numbers it would probably be a best a <5% increase (like $31M), not enough to get to the century mark, unless actuals come way up (or they find $$ in Puerto Rico). TGM was the best in top 10 last Memorial Day Sunday at -3.5%, albeit against a Game 7 of NBA EFC

[jedijake]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Thursday to Fri to Sat is more movie dependent, but once we have that Sat number in hand, Sun and beyond tend to follow more typical day/day change patterns.

 

Black led films tend to over-perform on Sundays relative to baseline, but with the holiday already boosting numbers it would probably be a best a <5% increase (like $31M), not enough to get to the century mark, unless actuals come way up (or they find $$ in Puerto Rico). TGM was the best in top 10 last Memorial Day Sunday at -3.5%, albeit against a Game 7 of NBA EFC

But like I said, I have a hard time believing they will just leave it at $98 or $99 million for the weekend. Actuals may be higher than the estimates we've seen.

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, Boxx93 said:

Maybe off topic but... how do you think Ruby Guillman: Teenage Kraken is going to perform. Bad Guys level or Puss In Boots 2 level? Or maybe more?

 

Depends how good it is, how much theaters set for it, and how Universal gets their movie message out to kids...

 

I am on the fence about it b/c my kids are...I think it could be a mini-Shrek level parody or it could be lame as...

[M37]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So, the real question is why did sales peter out for TLM at the 11th hour before release?

Its not that sales petered out, but more that the expected casual audience, somewhat for walk-ups in metro areas but moreso attendance generally outside of them ... just didn't show up like they normally do for a release of this size. All of the extrapolation and forecasts were based on the typical ratios, and it sure seems like the mid and lower tier markets especially, the more casual Fri and Sat crowd generally, had a lot of expected/usual audience opt out of this release ... for "reasons"