THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

To be a fly on the wall at Disney HQ on monday. 

I mean Disney HQ will be closed on Monday. It's a holiday. People won't be working.

[Boxx93]

Yeah, I see another Solo A Star Wars Story kind of trajectory for TLM. I kown its weird to compare this movie to Star Wars but both are Disney movies opening on memorial day weekend.

 

220-260 Dom; 130-160 OS; 350-420 WW Total.

 

Probably a decent Memorial OW, but the second weekend Spiderverse is going after the same family audience and will take away many PLF screens from TLM, witch will cause a 60 to 65 percent drop. International numbers looks really bad.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

Yeah, I see another Solo A Star Wars Story kind of trajectory for TLM. I kown its weird to compare this movie to Star Wars but both are Disney movies opening on memorial day weekend.

 

220-260 Dom; 130-160 OS; 350-420 WW Total.

 

Probably a decent Memorial OW, but the second weekend Spiderverse is going after the same family audience and will take away many PLF screens from TLM, witch will cause a 60 to 65 percent drop. International numbers looks really bad.

Literally impossible.

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Literally impossible.

I won't say but seems like it will disappear from major OS markets based on numbers I am seeing from 2nd FRI

Edited May 26, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Deathlife]

Honestly, part of the reason why I don't post much here (or anywhere) is political talk. I've been here for 10 years but just have over a thousand posts because of how everything is agenda driven. It's so bad that some websites can't even analyze the box office without spinning the numbers.

 

Politics is boring, sometimes we just want to post and enjoy this stuff. However, nowadays you have some people talking about setting up "ethnostates" and sh!t like that on this site. Like full-on nazi nonsense.  All the "woke Disney" stuff is just tiring. Disney isn't woke or anti-woke or anything, these companies are just chasing the almighty dollar. The creative types are liberal and progressive and that will never change and isn't a Disney thing. Seriously, Disney has contributed financially to the GOP for years until their recent spat with Florida's governor, the guys running these companies aren't some liberal hippies, if anyone feels that they don't know anything about "Corporate America" or American politics.

TLM not opening so big worldwide probably isn't just due to racism (it could be a part of it given the review bombing), but also because 1. TLM doesn't have any big names in the cast like TLK which was absolutely stacked. 2. TLM doesn't have the cultural cache of BaTB or Alaadin or TLK (The Lion King and Alaadin were monsters on release, BaTB was pretty big itself). That being said, WoM seems to be quite strong so that could also play a factor. In the US, WOM seems very strong, so it could end up being a Black Panther situation where the movie makes most of its money in the US because as someone mentioned, the US is generally more diverse (in ethnicity and ideologies) than many parts of the world.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think it will do $625M+ WW, which will give DIS $75M+ theatrical revenue surplus over its budget. so need not worry about it flopping.

 

I'm not completely sure about that. Deadline did this breakdown on BATB revenues and that had a total cost of marketing (175M) + net production (160 M) 350 M total. Assuming it is exactly the same for TLM (which we already know is not the case, since the budget is way higher) it needs about  700 M to get even. 

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I won't say but seems like it will disappear from major OS markets based on numbers I am seeing from 2nd FRI

There's a difference from it not being strong internationally and only doing 350-420 million worldwide. Come on.

[Deathlife]

7 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

Yeah, I see another Solo A Star Wars Story kind of trajectory for TLM. I kown its weird to compare this movie to Star Wars but both are Disney movies opening on memorial day weekend.

 

220-260 Dom; 130-160 OS; 350-420 WW Total.

 

Probably a decent Memorial OW, but the second weekend Spiderverse is going after the same family audience and will take away many PLF screens from TLM, witch will cause a 60 to 65 percent drop. International numbers looks really bad.

This is impossible.

[Boxx93]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

There's a difference from it not being strong internationally and only doing 350-420 million worldwide. Come on.

Deadline Hollywood is predicting a 60 million overseas opening for TLM minus Japan. That is dismal, no matter how you look at it.

[Deathlife]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

There's a difference from it not being strong internationally and only doing 350-420 million worldwide. Come on.

Yeah, people are exaggerating.

 

We're entering the summer season, the movie isn't disappearing from anywhere anytime soon.

[Issac Newton]

Just now, Deathlife said:

Yeah, people are exaggerating.

 

We're entering the summer season, the movie isn't disappearing from anywhere anytime soon.

No, I am talking about OS. DOM will be fine. Just OS is killing it

[Mulder]

Just now, Boxx93 said:

Deadline Hollywood is predicting a 60 million overseas opening for TLM minus Japan. That is dismal, no matter how you look at it.

1. Citing early Deadline estimates
2. Literally saying the movie which is about to open to over 100 million domestically and having good word of mouth would somehow drop 65% on its 2nd weekend and cap out at 220 million at best is absolutely insane.

[robertman2]

sub 100m, Disney's going out of business rip!

[grey ghost]

14 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

To be a fly on the wall at Disney HQ on monday. 

 

Meanwhile at DeSantis HQ...

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

1. Citing early Deadline estimates
2. Literally saying the movie which is about to open to over 100 million domestically and having good word of mouth would somehow drop 65% on its 2nd weekend and cap out at 220 million at best is absolutely insane.

if you go across to OS thread, you will see how bad the numbers have been. The best markets in core western europe are seeing great weather that will impact OW BO. 

 

That said his extrapolation for DOM/OS is way off. It will have a good run for sure. 

[ogkalu]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

its more like America has a significant black population. the areas with less black population under index in America as well. East coast overindex for black lead films. the other region with high black population is Africa & that doesn't really matter much at box office. 

West & Canada underindex. 

Similarly Chinese lead films overindex in Canada.

The US's black population is big but it's not that big. If majority white audiences in America didn't turn up for this then the opening would be much lower than it looks like it's headed. Yeah little pockets will over and under index here and there but most people that would have turned up are still turning up. Can't really say the same for a lot of other territories. Not like there's some hidden white population to over index to in most of asia. 

[Boxx93]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

1. Citing early Deadline estimates
2. Literally saying the movie which is about to open to over 100 million domestically and having good word of mouth would somehow drop 65% on its 2nd weekend and cap out at 220 million at best is absolutely insane.

Even if the estimates does improve a little, its still opening below 100 million OS. That is still bad when you had a 289 million global opening for Guardians 3 and a 319 million for Fast X.

 

Plus it's not just SpiderVerse, it's also Transformers, The Flash and freaking Disney's own Elemental cannibalizing TLM in the summer. It's just too much competition. Economy is not as great as it was in 2019 so families will be pickier than usual, that means no repeat business, witch helped Aladdin in the past.

[CoolioD1]

as always i blame lin manuel miranda for this.

[Hatebox]

No love for Disney remakes but this struggling to get even 700m wouldn’t bode well for long term post covid box office. 
 

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Hatebox

[ThomasNicole]

18 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

Honestly, part of the reason why I don't post much here (or anywhere) is political talk. I've been here for 10 years but just have over a thousand posts because of how everything is agenda driven. It's so bad that some websites can't even analyze the box office without spinning the numbers.

 

Politics is boring, sometimes we just want to post and enjoy this stuff. However, nowadays you have some people talking about setting up "ethnostates" and sh!t like that on this site. Like full-on nazi nonsense.  All the "woke Disney" stuff is just tiring. Disney isn't woke or anti-woke or anything, these companies are just chasing the almighty dollar. The creative types are liberal and progressive and that will never change and isn't a Disney thing. Seriously, Disney has contributed financially to the GOP for years until their recent spat with Florida's governor, the guys running these companies aren't some liberal hippies, if anyone feels that they don't know anything about "Corporate America" or American politics.

TLM not opening so big worldwide probably isn't just due to racism (it could be a part of it given the review bombing), but also because 1. TLM doesn't have any big names in the cast like TLK which was absolutely stacked. 2. TLM doesn't have the cultural cache of BaTB or Alaadin or TLK (The Lion King and Alaadin were monsters on release, BaTB was pretty big itself). That being said, WoM seems to be quite strong so that could also play a factor. In the US, WOM seems very strong, so it could end up being a Black Panther situation where the movie makes most of its money in the US because as someone mentioned, the US is generally more diverse (in ethnicity and ideologies) than many parts of the world.

Look, i get the feeling but everything is political, and this only screams louder when there’s such a strong political division like these past few years

 

I don’t think anyone here really likes to keep talking about how racism is hurting the movie or how many people are attacking such a young smart woman like Halle Bailey … but it’s happening and sadly we need to talk about it and stand with the right side 

 

Sure it’s tiresome and i totally get it but complain about people talking about it and think everyone loves talking about such sad subjects seems a bit naive

Edited May 26, 2023 by ThomasNicole