THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[Mulder]

7 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

Even if the estimates does improve a little, its still opening below 100 million OS. That is still bad when you had a 289 million global opening for Guardians 3 and a 319 million for Fast X.

 

Plus it's not just SpiderVerse, it's also Transformers, The Flash and freaking Disney's own Elemental cannibalizing TLM in the summer. It's just too much competition. Economy is not as great as it was in 2019 so families will be pickier than usual, that means no repeat business, witch helped Aladdin in the past.

Or Little Mermaid will hurt the films that come after. There is literally no reason to assume it'll drop an insane 60-65% during its second weekend when its WOM is looking good.

[ringedmortality]

8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

as always i blame lin manuel miranda for this.

 

Oh, yes! Anything goes, who'd ever guess
Our little Ariel's marriage material
Time for the rice and the dress
And the whaddayacall it
The thing with the lips when they press
I don't have lips, I have a beak, so I guess I
Could give you a peck on the cheek

[baumer]

32 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

Yeah, I see another Solo A Star Wars Story kind of trajectory for TLM. I kown its weird to compare this movie to Star Wars but both are Disney movies opening on memorial day weekend.

 

220-260 Dom; 130-160 OS; 350-420 WW Total.

 

Probably a decent Memorial OW, but the second weekend Spiderverse is going after the same family audience and will take away many PLF screens from TLM, witch will cause a 60 to 65 percent drop. International numbers looks really bad.

 

You think a Disney family movie with popular name attached to it is going to drop 65% in its second weekend? I'm not saying it's impossible but it's damn near impossible.

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

International box office whenever a movie has a black lead one of the few times that us Americans can feel like the enlightened ones.

 

40 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

its more like America has a significant black population. the areas with less black population under index in America as well. East coast overindex for black lead films. the other region with high black population is Africa & that doesn't really matter much at box office. 

West & Canada underindex. 

Similarly Chinese lead films overindex in Canada.

 

Ironic then that Will Smith was the main reason why Aladdin triumphed OS while it had a less impressive showing in the US. 

[wildphantom]

Just got out. It’s pretty good. Way better than I expected. I think audiences are going to lap this up, and Halle Bailey is terrific. 

 

Decent preview number but can’t believe word of mouth won’t be very solid for it. I expect good legs. 

[Jiffy]

On 5/25/2023 at 12:40 PM, Prince Eric said:

Immediately Disney’s biggest animated movie ever made, its box office success put Disney out of their slump and kickstarted the Disney Renaissance, home to some of the greatest, most beloved Disney films ever made. 

I think even before the 90s re-releases both Snow White and The Jungle Book were over TLM's initial release gross, right.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

Ironic then that Will Smith was the main reason why Aladdin triumphed OS while it had a less impressive showing in the US. 

well fwiw I think TLM with Zendaya would have done a lot better OS.

though Aladdin did well because it was an excellent film which had a great response in Asia. its opening wasn't particularly high which is where star power mostly matter but legs were great.

[charlie Jatinder]

59 minutes ago, grim22 said:

People always seem to get confused when a Hollywood musical flops in India because they think all Bollywood movies are musicals so musicals should do well in India. But Indians do not like Hollywood musicals, songs in Indian movies are a break from the narrative or emphasize something in the narrative but for the most part are non-essential to the movie. Songs which are actually the plot sung through is not our idea of musicals.

I think other reason is that for musical to work, music must work in first place, which almost never happens. For The Jungle Book they did promote it with TJB cartoon series theme song. was a bit disappointed that they didn't add it in credits.

 

or well just hire SRK

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[TigerPaw]

Is there something wrong with my internet or has deadline not posted their article on Thurs preview figures yet?

[Boxx93]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

You think a Disney family movie with popular name attached to it is going to drop 65% in its second weekend? I'm not saying it's impossible but it's damn near impossible.

It hurts me to say this because I love this company very much... But Disney is a tarnished brand. Star Wars is in the gutter, Marvel is overproducing too much mediocre products (I haven't seen Guardians 3 so I don't have an opinion about that) and Disney Animation is flopping hard in theaters (I hope Elemental and WISH break that trend). And the live action movies after TLK have been borderline unwatchable (i.e. Mulan, Pinocchio, Peter Pan and Wendy).

 

 

[jedijake]

Overseas will be an interesting topic of discussion for TLM. If it does less than 50% of its WW overseas, then it is going to look VERY interesting considering that Aladdin, Jungle Book, BatB, and Lion King all made over 60% overseas. Something will look suss and there may be a lot of interesting interpretations, especially considering that the movie seems to be solid at around 95% audience approved in the USA.

[Eric Atreides]

Seated for the real event of the weekend, You Hurt My Feelings with Julia Louis-Dreyfus my Queen.

 

School isn’t out yet and I’ve already seen like five girls dressed up as Ariel. It’s soooooooooo cute 🥰 

[keysersoze123]

Disney went with such a big production and marketing budget for Mermaid without a known star. Game plan I am sure is to make Halle the star with the movie. I think they have succeeded big time looking at the reactions. 

 

Just to reiterate, movies dont have to make all the money back just through BO. Disney will sells tons of merchandise apart from all the post box office revenue selling tv rights globally, disc/digital/rental etc. Plus having no stars mean no backend to pay to anyone. 

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Or Little Mermaid will hurt the films that come after. There is literally no reason to assume it'll drop an insane 60-65% during its second weekend when its WOM is looking good.

Can see it dropping 60% depending on how high spiderverse  opens. 

Social media reactions for ATSV were extremely positive and if reviews come out 95%+ .  Presales have been good can see a weekend as high as 120M+ 

 

Aladdin dropped 53% and it  had KOTM that weekend which opened to 46m

 

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[ringedmortality]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Plus having no stars mean no backend to pay to anyone. 

What about McCarthy and Bardem?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

What about McCarthy and Bardem?

I am not sure they are big enough to get backend. I am sure they would have been paid well upfront. 

[Deathlife]

29 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Look, i get the feeling but everything is political, and this only screams louder when there’s such a strong political division like these past few years

 

I don’t think anyone here really likes to keep talking about how racism is hurting the movie or how many people are attacking such a young smart woman like Halle Bailey … but it’s happening and sadly we need to talk about it and stand with the right side 

 

Sure it’s tiresome and i totally get it but complain about people talking about it and think everyone loves talking about such sad subjects seems a bit naive

 

I understand this and agree.

 

Generally, I just don't like how politics has invaded everything and everyday life.

 

Stuff used to be so much fun, now everything is some "agenda" even when it isn't.

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

What about McCarthy and Bardem?

McCarthy maybe, Bardem definitely no.

[grey ghost]

25 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

 

Ironic then that Will Smith was the main reason why Aladdin triumphed OS while it had a less impressive showing in the US. 

 

I think he's the only black actor who has major pull overseas.

 

Which is kind of a slap in the face.

 

(Sorry!)

[Mulder]

13 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Can see it dropping 60% depending on how high spiderverse  opens. 

Social media reactions for ATSV were extremely positive and if reviews come out 95%+ .  Presales have been good can see a weekend as high as 125M+ 

 

Aladdin dropped 53% and it  had KOTM that weekend which opened to 46m

 

 

Aladdin's WOM was considerably more mixed then it seems TLM is getting.