Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, Cap said:

Considering how close they are WW (251.9 to 247.9) I wonder when/if Elemental will pull ahead?

Elemental has more territories left so should definitely finish ahead, for now it’s doing better OS but weaker DOM, guess it will be more behind on 16 and pull ahead by 23rdish?

[AN9815]

If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that Transformers: Rise of the Beasts would gross more than The Flash and Indiana Jones 5 worldwide I would have called you crazy. Those two were basically sure bets at the box office and yet they are the biggest bombs of the summer. I do think that, with the massive budgets, they had to explode at the box office but honestly even The Little Mermaid was able to do >2x its budget and looks like Elemental will too. 

 

On that note, if Elemental crosses $450m WW can it break even?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Transformers is sort of in a similar situation to Elemental where it's held decently after underwhelming first few weeks. Any movie doubling its budget feels like a miracle after the performances of other movies this month, but importantly it seems to have also restored faith in the brand with audiences.

[TwoMisfits]

57 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

Damn...I WAS too low...$40M got cracked...

 

I think $80M DOM is the floor...and this thing could break bigger...next weekend will be key (well, that and my viewing).

 

This, to me, is the shock of the summer.  I don't know why Angel Studios decided to bet on this 2018 movie by buying it back from Disney this year, but they knew what Disney had and they knew what they were doing...

[Brainbug]

54 minutes ago, DAJK said:

My crystal ball tells me that MI7 numbers next week will be okay, leading people to discuss how out-of-control the budget was etc.

 

The second weekend drop will be ugly due to Barbenheimer, and people will freak out to a “cancel DR:Part2!!” level.

 

And then legs will develop very strongly after that Elemental-style, and the movie will end up with a healthy 250M DOM 700M WW.

 

So like the runs of Rogue Nation and Fallout 😄

[Willowra]

31 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

 

 

On that note, if Elemental crosses $450m WW can it break even?

Nope, it would require 510m to break even if its total cost is same as Lightyear's 373m

[emoviefan]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

So like the runs of Rogue Nation and Fallout 😄

Yep some around here will ignore all that.Past is prologue. 

[Felandria]

Any chance Disney reports numbers for Pirates?

[MCKillswitch123]

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Damn...I WAS too low...$40M got cracked...

 

I think $80M DOM is the floor...and this thing could break bigger...next weekend will be key (well, that and my viewing).

 

This, to me, is the shock of the summer.  I don't know why Angel Studios decided to bet on this 2018 movie by buying it back from Disney this year, but they knew what Disney had and they knew what they were doing...

 

I think it's the tragedy of the Summer. Not saying you're doing this, but celebrating the wins of a movie made for right wing loons is an embarrassment I ain't spending.

[Cooper Legion]

24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

So like the runs of Rogue Nation and Fallout 😄

Fallout had a famously good 2nd weekend hold, so not like that no

[MrHardapple]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I think it's the tragedy of the Summer. Not saying you're doing this, but celebrating the wins of a movie made for right wing loons is an embarrassment I ain't spending.

Stop making this movie political.

It is about child trafficking and has no political agenda.

It is for EVERYONE interested in this topic or interested in a small action film.

[baumer]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Damn...I WAS too low...$40M got cracked...

 

I think $80M DOM is the floor...and this thing could break bigger...next weekend will be key (well, that and my viewing).

 

This, to me, is the shock of the summer.  I don't know why Angel Studios decided to bet on this 2018 movie by buying it back from Disney this year, but they knew what Disney had and they knew what they were doing...

 

I could tell you why Angel studios decided to back this but unfortunately it won't be in these forums. I'm sure you can figure it out yourself as well. However we've been asked not to talk about the other stuff concerning the movie so I won't here. But from what I read Angel studios really believes in a subject matter of the movie and so they put their money where their mouth is.

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I think it's the tragedy of the Summer. Not saying you're doing this, but celebrating the wins of a movie made for right wing loons is an embarrassment I ain't spending.

Last I checked there was still 47% of the voters or 74m people voted Republican in the last election. The BO success merely is a reflection of that potential market size. 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, LegionGPT said:

Fallout had a famously good 2nd weekend hold, so not like that no

yeah, people keeps saying not to worry because MI movie have legs, but the previous MIs had no competition and legged their way through August. This time it's facing a juggernaut in barbenheimer, which will play through August too

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I think it's the tragedy of the Summer. Not saying you're doing this, but celebrating the wins of a movie made for right wing loons is an embarrassment I ain't spending.

 

This is the kind of post that we've been asked not to make.

 

@Cap @Eric Bunny

[MCKillswitch123]

So good to expand my ignore list.

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

So good to expand my ignore list.

Yeah well you're still going to get warning points for that. 

[baumer]

Box office wise and ONLY BOX OFFICE wise, Sound of Freedom is definitely one of the stories of the summer. No one had even heard of this movie a week ago and now it just crushed 40 million in one week.

[VanillaSkies]

44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Damn...I WAS too low...$40M got cracked...

 

I think $80M DOM is the floor...and this thing could break bigger...next weekend will be key (well, that and my viewing).

 

This, to me, is the shock of the summer.  I don't know why Angel Studios decided to bet on this 2018 movie by buying it back from Disney this year, but they knew what Disney had and they knew what they were doing...

So curious to see where this one goes, as there are so many unknowns. Has it burned through most of its audience, or will the big debut drive others in? Will the “pay it forward” concept continue to bring in those otherwise on the fence (cause most people will take the risk if it’s a free ticket), can a small studio manage to keep screens with the MI, Barbie, Oppenheimer bloodbath coming up.

 

stay tuned…

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I could tell you why Angel studios decided to back this but unfortunately it won't be in these forums. I'm sure you can figure it out yourself as well. However we've been asked not to talk about the other stuff concerning the movie so I won't here. But from what I read Angel studios really believes in a subject matter of the movie and so they put their money where their mouth is.

 

Yeah, but...

 

1. It's not the only movie made about the issue.  And it was getting "stale", being a 2018 movie.

2. It's not in Angel Studio's original "wheelhouse" of VERY low cost faith releases - it's really a pretty far branch out for them.  

3. It was also a semi-risky proposition.  In a post-Covid environment, a "true" story drama screams straight to streaming release, or single digit to low teens total BO returns, and they put themselves fully on the hook for the $14.5M production budget (they only crowd-funded the $5M theatrical movie release marketing and distribution costs, and they like to pay their crowdfunders back + 20%).  So, they needed $40M to truly break even, which has been unheard of for most small budget drama releases.  I mean Jesus Revolution, an actual faith based movie put out by a large studio in wide release with a huge marketing campaign, still only got to $52M with an Easter season release, which is the best time of year for those types of releases, and that and Air (and Otto) are the top drama releases of the year.

4. And to release in the dead of summer between 2 huge blockbusters, and to get any kinda campaign going as a sad, hard to stomach movie?  

 

I mean, this was not on my radar pre-summer.  The co-bombs were.  The Spidey and Barbie breakouts were.  This?  Possibly could get over Flash?  I mean, no way did anyone have that down, even Angel Studios.

 

Thus a total shock.  And as I've said before - I call it like I see it.  This could get to Top 10-12 summer domestic.  It's already #26 DOM, just after 6 days.